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Tuesday, August 16, 2011

We were a bit weaker today as the Dow lost 77 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. We moved off the oversold levels and now the question is where we go from here. The S&P 500 daily candlestick chart is showing a bearish belt hold pattern, implying lower prices near term. I am still considering the August OEX puts if the premiums are in my price range. The risk on this trade would be very high though. We'll see what happens tomorrow. GE was off 1/4 on light volume. No near term trades for me in GE. Still considering a longer term option trade here in the next few weeks. Gold had a good day, the futures were up $27. The XAU fell 2 1/8 though, following the overall market down. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. My ABX September calls are still in the black. We're getting overbought on ABX and I will have to think about exactly how long I'd like to stay in this trade. The weekly charts still have room to move to the upside in my opinion. The US dollar was up a touch today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 3 days to go in the August options. The stock indices have worked off their oversold condition but are not overbought at the moment. We probably could go either way here but I'm leaning towards the downside. The summation index did move to the upside yesterday. So it's a mixed bag. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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