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Wednesday, August 03, 2011

We finally got some type of bounce from an extremely oversold condition. The Dow gained 29 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about even. The daily candlestick chart on the S&P 500 looks like it has formed a hammer here. That could lead to some more near term gains. We still have the employment report on Friday to deal with. I think that the decline may be done for now but that doesn't mean that it's over. GE gained 1/4 on good volume. No trades here for now. Gold soared another $20 as the US dollar fell. The XAU gained 1 1/2. ABX and GG each rose about 1/2 while NEM gained a buck. Volume was good again. The money continues to flow into gold related assets. I placed an order for some September ABX calls. If we get some pullback then this order could get filled. Yesterday there was a lot of volume in the September ABX calls. Today the same options open interest expanded. The last time that I saw this, ABX had a nice rally. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The summation index continues to decline at a rapid clip. We are in the danger zone for a crash unless we turn around quickly. However the McClellan oscillator is at a point where previous oversold rallies have started. It's a tough call either way. I'm still leaning towards getting some OEX puts on this bounce. Time will tell.

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