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Monday, August 22, 2011

It wasn't a quiet summer Monday as the Dow gained 37 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. We were up over 150 points early but could not hold the gains. The summation index continues lower. We are short term oversold here but todays price action doesn't look like a precursor to higher prices. We'll see. I would like to see some type of rally to try the OEX puts again but we know I didn't get the rally before. No hurry as we just began the September option cycle today. GE was flat on the day after opening higher. Volume was good. I'm looking out to the January option cycle here. Again, no hurry as I expect lower prices eventually. Gold continues its parabolic run, up $40 on the futures to a new record high. The US dollar was flat today. I have no idea how long gold will continue to rise. Very overbought and staying there. I can tell you that when it ends, it will end badly. The drop will be as prolific as the rise. The XAU gained 6 2/3 today. ABX up 1 1/4, GG rose 2 1/2 and NEM led the way higher by 2 3/4. Volume was good here. Unfortunately for me, ABX was the laggard. The September calls I own are solidly in the black though. I'm still trying to figure out exactly how long I'm going to hold this trade. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. After a review of the charts over the weekend my ideal scenario for the S&P would be a rally near term as an opportunity to get short. The market rarely cooperates with your ideas though. I don't want to get too greedy with the ABX trade but I still feel we could go a little higher there. Plenty of time left. We'll see what transpires in the foreign markets overnight and take it from there.

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