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Monday, August 15, 2011

We started option expiration week to the upside as the Dow gained 213 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were 10 to 1 positive. The summation index should turn to the upside with todays market action. I would like to try the OEX puts this week if we call rally up to the 50% retracement level on the S&P 500. That would be around 1225. If the volume continues light to the upside that is where I may attempt the next OEX trade. With only 4 days to go in the August options, obviously this would be a very short term trade. We'll see. GE was up 50 cents on lighter volume as well. No trades here. Keeping an eye on the January calls but will not look to purchase them until we see lower prices once again. Gold rose again, up $15 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The US dollar was weaker today. The XAU gained 5 7/8. ABX up 1 1/8, GG higher by 1 1/4 and NEM up 1 1/2. Volume was light today and that could be a problem going forward. I do not trust light volume rallies. My ABX calls continue to be in the black but we are reaching overbought status. However the weekly charts still look like they have room to run. If todays drop in the dollar is the beginning of something bigger, then I'll continue to hold the calls. That would support the price of gold here. It also looks like the gold shares are starting to outperform the metal itself and that's a positive going forward. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep all that well. I will be getting back to my normal market schedule next week which should bode well for trading. I would like to try the OEX put trade but my schedule for this week may not permit it. We'll have to see how it goes. It's risky, yes. But the opportunity may be well worth the risk.

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