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Thursday, August 04, 2011

It was a market meltdown as the Dow plummeted 512 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were blown out to the downside. Summation index in free fall. Oversold, staying there and anything can happen at this point. Yesterdays attempt at a bottom failed drastically. I'd like to say that I know when this will all end but I certainly don't. The employment report is out tomorrow and I wouldn't expect any good news there. Perhaps we can get a blow-off move down and start to recover. There will be a short covering rally at some point but the timing is in question. Stock markets around the world collapsed overnight. Probably will see more of the same tonight. Maybe we could see some support at the Dows 200 day weekly moving average but it's still 500 points from here. Stay tuned. GE lost a buck on extreme volume as well. I'm looking at getting some GE calls for the longer term. Meaning next January or March. However in these market conditions I think that it would be better to let some type of bottom form in GE. That may take a few weeks or longer. I'll keep an eye on it and decide the best course of action over the weekend. Gold hit a new all time high before pulling back during the day. It fell by $6 and a bit more in the aftermarket. The US dollar was very strong today in the flight to safety. The XAU got clobbered, down 12 2/3. ABX off 2 7/8, GG lost 2 7/8 and NEM fell 2 2/3. Volume was very heavy here as well. I did purchase some ABX September calls. However if the market continues its free fall, the gold shares will follow suit. I could have canceled the order but I wanted to do this trade as a back-up to missing out on the OEX puts. ABX isn't extremely oversold here but it is enough for me to give it a try. I think once things settle down, gold will continue to attract capital as a flight to safety since the fear level is now elevated. My thinking is that perhaps gold and the dollar will rise in tandem as they did the last time we had a major market collapse. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK but a bit tired. Could have slept more. Today was interesting but tomorrow could even be more so. Maybe we will see the panic low. There will be opportunities but it isn't easy trying to catch a falling knife. I still don't sense a gripping fear in the marketplace but that could change rapidly. We are very deeply oversold so when the bounce happens, it will be huge. Hasn't happened yet. We'll see what tomorrow brings but be ready for anything.

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