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Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Whatever happened to the summer doldrums? The Dow got clobbered today, down 226 points. Advance/declines were almost 10 to 1 negative. Volume was extremely heavy. We are blown out on the short term here. So I would be surprised if we were down another 200 tomorrow. The financials and the brokers have all broken their longer term uptrend lines. That doesn't bode well going forward. I'll be looking to short things. Gold gained $3 but the XAU lost almost 3 points. That's a change. We closed right at the uptrend line for the XAU that has been in effect for the last 4 weeks. NEM was actually up on the day and I'm thinking of putting in an order for calls overnight. ABX lost about a quarter. The dollar broke to fresh lows but it can't keep going down forever. The XAU really needs a rest here too. Earnings out next week for ABX and NEM. GE was down about a half today but it was holding up pretty well early. I'm still looking at getting the puts there. Perhaps we'll build a better top there. But it is overbought on the weekly chart and should begin to roll over. Mentally I'm doing OK. I would expect the market to not go into free fall here but I could be wrong. It's only Tuesday. The summation index is on its way to the zero line. If it goes through the market will collapse. I'm not saying that is going to happen anytime soon but when we get down close to it, you've got to be aware of what might occur. We are still far enough away that there is nothing to worry about at the moment. But it has to be respected. I'm thinking with the end of the month and the beginning of August, the market will hold up here. After that?

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