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Monday, July 30, 2007

The Dow snapped back 92 points today on heavy volume. However the volume was much lighter then last week when it was extraordinary. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The McClellan oscillator was at a -344 on Friday. It rarely gets that negative and a rebound always ensues. I was hoping for a washout down move this morning to get long. It didn't happen. That said, the quality of this rally stinks and I do believe prices will be heading lower. I could be wrong. If we continue with a weak rally I'll look for OEX puts. If we have a washout down day, I'll look for OEX calls. Gold was up $4 and the XAU rose 5 points. ABX was up good but NEM didn't rise as much. The relative strength perhaps has moved back to ABX and that won't help the NEM calls I own. Earnings for both out on Thursday. The volume today wasn't that great. I'm not a believer here either unless I see some better volume. We'll see. GE was up a half in sympathy with the overall market. I'm probably not going to do anything here until we get back to the up trend line. Mentally I'm doing fine. I checked the older charts of the McClellan oscillator and summation index to get a better handle of what might happen here. We really need to see some good strength to the upside or we are gonna go lower regardless. However I think we are eventually setting up for a good longer term buy point. But we probably aren't there yet. As for the NEM trade, it isn't going to work. Once the earnings come out, that's it. I will try and cut the loss if possible but I need to exit this week. At least that's the thinking right now. This is a time to pay close attention to what is going on and act accordingly...

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