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Friday, July 06, 2007

The Dow rose 45 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The employment number was a bit stronger, interest rates rose a bit but we continued higher. We are due for a rest here. The market is overbought and I expect weakness early next week. That might set up for some OEX July calls. Maybe. The gold shares went crazy today. The XAU rose 4 and change on heavy volume. Gold itself was up around $4. There was positive news on NEM and it was up over $2 on extremely heavy volume. I bought some July NEM calls. This is probably going to be a quick trade for the expected follow through on Monday. The heavy volume tells me that institutions are loading up and this issue will go higher. We are now at a multi-week downtrend line that has lasted at least a year. My feeling is that we are about to break through and it could be next week. There are 2 weeks left on these options but I don't think I will be holding them that long. I will most likely exit on Monday and look to buy August calls if and when the gold shares pull back. If the overall market declines next week it should take the gold shares with it and that will possibly give me a chance to position for the August calls. But make no mistake, the volume came in the gold shares today and they are going higher now and in the future. That's my guess. GE was unchanged really and the volume was light there. However I am concentrating on the gold shares at the moment so GE is on the back burner. Mentally I'm doing OK. I think I am on to something profitable and that always puts yourself in a better frame of mind. I'm not what you'd call a "goldbug". I am just looking for what I perceive to be opportunities and trying to take advantage of them. My hope is that paying attention on a summer Friday will pay off...

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