Looking for direction as the Dow gained 48 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving sideways. We bounced around trending lower for much of the session before a last half hour rally sent indices into positive terrritory with the exception of the NASDAQ. The Fed beige book was a non event. Waiting on NVDA earnings after the bell to set the tone for tomorrow. The S&P 500 is now mid-range its Bollinger band channel with the short term indicators drifting lower. There is no clear trading signal one way or the other here so we'll be on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume. I did place an order for the GDX March calls but it will take some selling there to get filled. I'm leaving it open overnight. Newmont earnings on tap for tomorrow. The gold shares seem to be holding in here so this trade may have been missed as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch lower today. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it has put in a small top and that the VIX will be heading lower near term. That would be a plus for higher stock prices. I still like the idea of the SPY March puts at some point during the monthly option cycle but need to see a decent signal first. We'll have to stay patient for now. Europe and Asia were mixed again. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Sellers took over after the long weekend as the Dow fell 64 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index remains in a sideways channel. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. We did recover from the lows of the session though. The S&P 500 is still in overbought territory but not at extremes. The short term indicators have rolled over. The up trend line from last November is in jeopardy. I still like the idea of the SPY March puts but will not chase things here. If the S&P somehow moves up from here and the indicators stay below their previous highs the puts are worth a shot. But that's asking a lot and I would not be surprised if we just head down from here. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates nudged down. The XAU finished basically unchanged, while GDX added 1/8. Volume was light. I do like the GDX March calls on a pullback this week if we see one. However with gold up and the gold shares not following it isn't the most positive environment at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and closed above its 200 day moving average and upper Bollinger band. Not sure what to expect here next but the short term indicators have room to go higher. It is a short trading week without a lot of economic data on tap. The Fed beige book is out tomorrow with NVDA earnings due after the bell. I suppose it is best to sit tight for now. Europe and Asia finished mixed in last nigths trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

The inflation data came in more than expected again and after an intitial drop in the first half hour the market came back to positive territory until there were two hours to go. Sellers then took over and the Dow fell 145 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index remains trending up but within a sideways range. The NASDAQ led the way lower. I thought that perhaps we would see some kind of blow off top for stocks here but that isn't the case. If it was we'd already be going straight up. Todays price action puts the market in a tenuous position in my view. The negative RSI divergence on the daily chart for the S&P 500 is still intact. However the long term up trend line is still working as support. But to me the rate of ascent is too steep and I'm looking for a pull back to the 4800 level. I could be wrong and often am. I'm considering the SPY March puts. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates rose. Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on about average volume. The weekly candlestick chart for GDX looks bullish as it has bounced off of its lower Bollinger band this week. It is also oversold on a medium term basis. There is a down trend line still in effect there though and a negative week next week would negate this weeks potential positive candlestick. The trading is never easy. If the market drops next week as I believe that it will the gold shares will probably go with it. Newmont earnings are due on the 22nd as well. I am looking at the March GDX calls. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up a bit today. Not seeing any clear signal one way or the other on the daily indicators here. There will be plenty to ponder over the long weekend coming up. Rolling into a new option cycle as well. I'll be going over the charts as usual to try and come up with some kind of game plan for the comming trading week. I'll try and not dwell on the recent losing GDX trade and missing out on the SPY puts this week. Europe and Asia finished higher to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Continuing higher as the Dow was up 348 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to trending higher but remains in a sideways panel. The Dow was the leader today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. Retail sales came in lighter than expected. The S&P 500 was up and remains short term overbought but not extremely so. My guess here is that the S&P either morphs into a blow off top or we get another negative RSI divergence on the daily chart and we roll over. The up trend line from last November remains intact so the path of least resistance is higher. The big sell off on Tuesday has only been met with more buying. Not sure where the liquidity is coming from but we won't fight price. Remaining on the sidelines for now as we'll let expiration Friday pass. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was good again to the upside. The bounce signal we were looking for from one of our indicators doesn't look like it will show up as the gold shares are already starting to move up. The short term indicators for GDX have started to move higher. Perhaps if GDX heads back down to the 26 level we'll try the March calls there. There is a down trend line on the GDX daily chart that comes in at around 27.75. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with some of the short term indicators now at mid-range. Not sure what to expect next here. We have seen the stock market come back in the past couple of days. Not sure if it is the next move to a new all time high or just something option expiration related. We'll know in the next few days. Asia and Europe were both up overnight. Inflation data out on expiration Friday so we'll close out the trading week on that.

Higher today as we did not see any downside follow through to yesterdays debacle. The Dow gained 151 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus for the bulls. After todays price action we have to consider that yesterday was simply a one day wonder but we'll see how the rest of the week plays out. The long term up trend line in the S&P 500 from last November does remain intact. The short term indicators there have now turned back up as they have for most of the duration of the rally. The negative RSI divergence on the daily chart of the S&P may have played itself out in one day. We'll know more as the rest of the week goes on. Plenty of economic data out tomorrow with retail sales being the main event. On the sidelines for now with regards to the SPY trading. Gold fell $3 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on above average volume. We are waiting to see if one of our indicators gives a buy signal for GDX. If it does we'll try a bounce trade there. If not we'll look elsewhere. GDX remains short term oversold on the daily indicators and has been for quite some time. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term technical indicators there have turned lower or are in the process of doing so. The VIX is implying that the selling is over but again we'll have to see how the rest of the week shapes up. A long weekend ahead in the US as well. More inflation data out on Friday along with option expiration. So it should be a busy final two days of this week. Asia was mixed and Europe up in last nights trade. We'll see how the markets react to the data tomorrow.

Inflation data came in higher than expected and the markets got clobbered as the Dow fell 524 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 12 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to trending lower but it is in a sideways channel. The NASDAQ led the way down. A last half hour rally brought the market back or it would have been worse. I did place another order overnight for the SPY February puts but it wasn't filled. I was thinking yesterday that perhaps this trade was missed and it was. The negative RSI divergence on the daily chart for the S&P 500 finally came to fruition. The S&P did manage to make it back to finish on the up trend line that began last November at the 4950 level. I don't think this level will hold though but we'll see. The short term indicators for the S&P have rolled over with room to go. The next area of support comes in at around 4800 or so. If we can somehow hang around here for a while, I'll try the SPY March puts. But markets go where thay want. Gold dropped $27 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 6 7/8, while GDX fell 1 3/8. Volume was heavy in a rush to the exits. Yesterday I thought that the gold shares were about to rally and they simply continue to fall. There is an indicator that we look at on a longer term basis that is pretty reliable to spot a point when the gold shares will at least bounce. It hasn't gotten all the way there yet but if and when it does I'll be trying the GDX March calls for a short term trade. I also thought yesterday that all the bad news was out there for Barrick Gold but it sold off on its earnings report today. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite missing the SPY put trade. At least my idea there was correct unlike the recent GDX loss that was a disastor from the start. One thing for sure in the game is that you've always got to keep moving forward despite the results. The VIX had a huge spike higher and closed above its 200 day moving average. It would have been even higher had the market not made a late comeback out of nowhere. The short term indicators have moved up but are not completely overbought yet. Not sure what to expect here next but you can certainly make a case for higher VIX readings and lower stock prices. Three days left in the February option cycle ahead of a holiday weekend. I doubt that I'll be taking on any short term trades from here but who knows? What was open in Asia was generally higher while Europe was lower. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

A mixed bag today as the Dow rose 125 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to moving up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. It was a one day reversal to the downside for the S&P 500. I did place an order for the SPY Feruary puts overnight but it wasn't filled. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but today may have been the chance to try the puts. If we are higher tomorrow I may try this idea again but it could be too late. Inflation data out in the morning and that should be a market mover. I'm looking at the hourly chart on the S&P and if we get a high above todays high with a lower RSI reading I'll give the puts a try. But this would be strickly short term in nature as it's option expiration week. Gold was off $4 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX rose 1/3. Volume was below average. Gold shares up with gold down is a plus for the bulls as we haven't seen that for a while. Perhaps it is the beginning of a rally in GDX that I was looking for as it remains short term oversold. Barrick Gold reports earnings tomorrow and we've seen about all of the bad news from that stock lately. Mentally I'm feeling a bit concerned that I might have missed the SPY put trade. The VIX was up today. It rose a point even though we hardly had a market drop overall. The short term indicators have turned up. It could represent more near term weakness for stocks but we'll have to wait and see. Europe finished higher and most of Asia was closed for holiday. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The climb higher continued for the overall market but the Dow fell 54 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now tracking sideways. The NASDAQ led the way by far today and that's another plus for the bulls. We didn't see a big move in the overall market so the recent signal for that in the McClellan oscillator failed. The S&P 500 did get its close above the 5000 level though. Still short term overbought on the S&P with a potential negative divergence for the RSI on the daily chart. If we stay positive into Tuesday I'll try the SPY February puts. At least that's the idea before the weekend. My market prognosis hasn't been good lately as it appears that simply buying some SPY calls and holding them was the proper play. There's also the posibility that we see some kind of blow off top next week into the option expiration. Gold was off $8 on the futures to finish the week. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates remained steady. The XAU lost another 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume moved up to be about average.. I ended up selling my GDX February calls for a 95% loss. Even another breakout of violence in the Middle East probably wouldn't have saved this trade. A loser from the start and poorly managed once again. My market sense is off right now. Not a lot of money involved but it is the negative expending of the mental capital that holds you back. Your ideas need to fit the market narrative, not the other way around. I'll put this trade behind me and start fresh on Monday. Mentally I'm feeling OK all things considered. Losing trades are part of the game but they should not eat up 95% of the trade. Moving on is part of the deal too when it comes to this game. The VIX was up today which doesn't fit with an overall higher market. Not sure what that implies. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Perhaps I'll consider moving into the GDX March calls as GDX is oversold and staying there. But there's time to consider things in the next couple of days this weekend. Much of Asia was closed and Europe ended the week slightly lower. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

More of the same today as we seem to be waiting for a close above the 5000 level on the S&P 500. The Dow added 49 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is now trying to move sideways. The NASDAQ was the leader today but all the gains were small. We did get a signal last night on the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two sessions. We'll see if that pans out tomorrow. There doesn't seem to be any sellers around for now. Still considering the SPY February puts some time before expiration Friday on the 16th. Gold was lower by a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates ticked higher. The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX was off over 1/8. Volume remains very light here. GDX remains short term oversold but not at extremes. My GDX February calls are now 90% losers. Looks like no cutting that loss now. I'll hold on to them over the weekend in case the Middle East heats up but that's about it. No saving this bad trade though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower and remains short term oversold. We've got the lunar new year coming up in Asia so some of those markets will be closed going forward from here for around a week. Mainly affects China. Europe and Asia finished mixed overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The market seems like it just wants to keep going up as the Dow gained 156 points on strong volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led things higher today. The S&P 500 remains in the same short term overbought technical condition. It is on the cusp of closing at or above the 5000 level for the first time. Markets can stay overbought longer than you can stay solvent is one familiar saying for times like these. The breadth here though is lacking for a market moving higher. I'm not giving up on the SPY February put idea but will wait for a valid signal. The NASDAQ is on its way but still hasn't made it to a new all time high. Gold finished flat on the session after being a bit higher early on. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remained steady. The XAU slipped 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/4. Volume was very light again as there is no interest in this sector right now. My GDX February calls continue to lose ground and are on the way to being an eighty to ninety percent loss unless some buying comes out of the woodwork. Still hanging around the 27.5 support so there is some hope of cutting the loss to something more manageable. But this trade was a loser from the beginning and should have been dumped right away. One of the drawbacks now is being stuck in this negative position while other opportunities are out there. But I'll eventually move on like I always do. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and is now below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators continue to slide and they aren't extremely oversold yet. The VIX still implies higher stock prices to come. It is one reason to hold off on the SPY puts for now. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Kind of hanging around today as the Dow managed a gain of 141 points on better than average volume. The advance/declines were north of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The Dow was in the lead once again. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought with its potential negative divergences. We are in a waiting game to try and attempt the SPY February puts. A nice light volume rally from here would do the trick. The market rarely cooperates. Gold was up $9 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 3/8, while GDX added 1/3. Volume was extremely light as there isn't any real interest in owning gold or the gold shares at the moment. My GDX February calls remain mired in the red and we're running out of time in the February option cycle. I don't think that this trade will be saved by some kind of rally in gold so we are in cut the loss mode. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower which fits with todays market action. The short term indicators are now heading south with room to go which implies more near term gains for stocks. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Some selling to begin the week as the Dow fell 274 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving down. The Dow led the way lower and that isn't the most bearish scenario. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought with a potential negative RSI divergence on the daily chart. Not much on the economic calendar this week but plenty of earnings. Some Fed speak as well. I still would like to try the SPY February puts at some point before option expiration on the 16th. But we'll wait to see a clear signal first if one shows up. Gold dropped a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The gold shares fell as the XAU lost over 2 1/2, while GDX shed 2/3. Volume was average. My GDX February calls are solid losers and this trade is in a cut the loss mode at this point. Renewed Middle East tension over the weekend couldn't help the precious metal. A rising dollar along with higher interest rates isn't a help for the gold bulls as well. GDX closed below the important level of 27.5. I don't think anything can save this trade from being a loser. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with a down market. The short term indicators remain mid-range. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of Japan. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Tech earnings and a surprisingly robust jobs report were met with buying today as the Dow gained 134 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues sideways. I thought that the jobs report could be a non-event and it wasn't. Big tech earnings, besides Apple, were met with glee. The NASDAQ led the way higher by far. New all time highs for the S&P 500. There is another short term potential negative RSI divergence there on the daily chart. But potential doesn't mean that it will be valid. However the weak breadth today doesn't have me believing that we will be going much higher without some kind of pause. Still might try the SPY February puts at some point before option expiration. But for now the bulls are in charge. Gold dropped $17 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The gold shares got whacked with the XAU losing 3 1/2, while GDX lost a point. Volume was heavy to the downside in a complete reversal of yesterdays gains. I did place an order for the GDX February calls overnight and it was filled at the open. I thought that if perhaps GDX pulled back I could get in to try the calls. What I didn't expect was such a huge move lower. The position is already showing a loss. The entry timing was horrible. The only saving grace for now is that GDX did manage to stay above the support at 27.5. The short term indicators for GDX are mid-range and pointing down. Unless we see a turnaround back up early next week this trade will be a loser. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as trying this GDX trade was perhaps not the best thing to do. There wasn't a clear signal to base the trade off of after yesterdays price action. Patience perhaps could have been rewarded but it's too late now. The VIX finished flat and we would expect it to movve lower on a strong session like today. The technical indicators for the short term remain at the mid-range level. Not sure what to expect next here for the VIX. We are seeing a narrow leadership rally for stocks. I'm not sure that it can last that much longer but I could be wrong and often am. You cannot argue with price. If the S&P continues to climb and we get a sell signal I'll try the SPY February puts. We'll hold the GDX trade at least in the beginning of next week but we'll have to see buyers there for it to have a chance. I'll go over the charts this weekend to try and be ready for whatever next week brings. Europe and Asia finished generally higher to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Powering back to the upside as the Dow gained 369 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving sideways. Yesterday now seems like a blip on the radar as the market wants to go higher. Not sure where the liquidity is coming from but we can't argue with price. But we'll see what happens tomorrow. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back up. We thought that it would be a short window for the SPY February puts and it looks like it was. But we may like that idea again as the February option cycle moves on. I will try and wait for a decent signal though if one shows up. We will watch and wait for now. Gold was up $5 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The gold shares came to life. The XAU was up 4, while GDX gained over a point. Volume was heavy to the upside. I canceled my open order for the GDX February calls but this may be a move worth chasing. Bonds and gold are now seeing a flight to safety on the possibility of more Middle East turmoil, this time involving the US. The short term indicators for GDX on a daily basis have moved higher with room to go. So I might place an order over night and see if it gets filled in the morning. The problem is that one of our short term timing models for GDX is already overbought and we would rather see that pull back before trying the calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an up market. The short term indicators here are now mid-range. The VIX did reach its upper Bollinger band in the past couple of sessions so perhaps it's ready to trend lower now. No good signal on the VIX at the moment. We've got the jobs report tomorrow and unless it is a big surprise it may not have the usual effect since we've already had the Fed put a damper on any kind of near term rate cut. But we'll see. Both Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Stocks got clobbered today as the Fed spoke and the market didn't like what it heard. Big tech earnings were not viewed in a positive light as well. The Dow fell 317 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is back in a sideways mode. The NASDAQ led the way lower and was off over 2%. The S&P 500 lost almost eighty points. The short term indicators there have now rolled over with plenty of room to go. Yesterday was the time to try the SPY February puts but I missed out. Perhaps too focussed on gold again. No excuses really as we figured today would be a mover and that move was lower. Support for the S&P comes in at 4800 and at this rate we'll be there tomorrow. One day doesn't make a trend but you can make a case for a negative RSI divergence on the S&P daily chart. If that turns out to be valid the 50 day moving average might be the target. We've still got the jobs report to get through on Friday but I think that the main fireworks went off today. Gold finished flat after being up for much of the session. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume. No clear signal going for GDX but my open order for the February calls remains out there. As long as 27.5 holds I'm still willing to give this idea a shot. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was higher today and that fits the down move in stocks. The short term indicators are pointing up with room to go. The VIX implies more volatility and lower stock prices to come after todays movement. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll be looking for some follow through downside tomorrow.

Deciding which way to go here as the Dow was up 133 points in a mixed market. Volume was light and the advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trending up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ off over 100 points. The S&P 500 was barely negative on the session and remains short term overbought. Tomorrow we'll see some movement as the Fed decision looms along with the press conference afterwards. The SPY puts didn't get to a price that we wanted to pay and it seems that today was the time to buy them. The S&P futures are already in decline as it appears that big tech earnings are a disappointment. But we'll see how it goes tomorrow. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Once again gold was positive and the gold shares didn't follow. That's a negative. I canceled my current open order for the GDX February calls and replaced it at a lower strike price. Still over two weeks left in the February option cycle. The short term technical indicators are not showing a clear signal here for GDX. However as long as the support at 27.5 holds up I think that the calls would be the way to go. There is also the possiblity that GDX just goes sideways and that would not help with the option trading. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. We aren't seeing any kind of clear signal here either as to what to expect next with this indicator. A lot depends on what the Fed has to say. Of course good or bad earnings will drive things one way or the other as well. Nothing wrong with the sidelines but you won't make any money staying there all the time. I suppose we'll get through Wednesday and take it from there. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

We begin the week on a positive note as the Dow gained 224 points on light volume. The advance/declines shy of 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving back up. We got a pop in the final hour that powered the indexes higher. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way and that is a plus for the bulls. Plenty on tap this week with the Fed on Wednesday, the jobs report on Friday and big tech earnings tomorrow and Thursday. The S&P 500 is short term overbought and staying that way. It does seem to be getting a bit frothy but trying the SPY puts here is risky. However if we do continue higher into the Fed announcement I may give that idea a shot. It would be strickly short term in nature as the upside momentum here is hard to go against. But some of the technical indicators are reaching extremes and that can't last forever. Gold was up $14 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates dipped. The XAU rose 1 3/8, while GDX gained 1/3. Volume was light. GDX bounced around today. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up and are approaching mid-range. This is a wobbly light volume rise so far and I still have my open order out there for the GDX February calls. This may be an idea whose time has passed though. If we make another trip down to 27.5 and hold it could be spot for this trade. Remains to be seen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a bigger than usual range today and finished a bit higher. That doesn't fit with an up market. The short term indicators were higher as well. Not sure what the implications are. However given all the data due out this week it would not be a surprise to see some volatility return. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed to begin the week overseas. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Mixed to end the week as the Dow added 60 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. Inflation data turned out to be mild but it turned into a back and forth session for stocks. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 finished in the red. The S&P remains short term overbought. Medium term overbought as well. I can make a case here for the SPY February puts. If the market holds up ahead of the Fed on Wednesday, that could be the next trade. It would be short term in nature as we have had a valid breakout above 4800. But a trip back to the breakout point would not be out of the question. I'll consider it over the weekend. Gold finished flat on the session. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates a bit higher. Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. I adjusted down my open order for the GDX February calls. Not exactly sure if this idea remains valid as there isn't a lot of interest in owning gold here. Light volume equals little interest. 27.5 has still held for GDX though so as long as it does I have to believe that the longer term trend line will hold in here and we'll start to move higher. The gold shares should move on what the Fed has to say as well. Which way is always the question. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but did remain above its 50 day moving average. No clear signal from the short term technical indicators here. Perhaps things are just waiting on the Fed next week. There should be no change in rates but the speech that follows could spark some volatility. Plenty of earnings still to come as well. Lots of time left in the February option cycle so that isn't a concern. We'll go over the charts this weekend to come up with a game plan for next week. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow led the way higher today as the most watched index gained 242 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. This should move the summation index back to the upside. The NASDAQ underperformed today but still managed a small gain. The S&P was higher and remains short term overbought. It is getting far away from its 50 day moving average. Not sure what to expect with tomorrows inflation data but we'll watch the market reaction to the numbers. There is still plenty of time left in the February option cycle. Gold was up $3 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX gained over 1/2. Volume was light. After yesterdays drop the gold shares found buyers today. The short term indicators for GDX have now turned back up. It is a confusing picture at the moment for the GDX daily chart. I still have my open order out for the February calls there but if GDX starts to head lower here I may just cancel it. If GDX continues higher tomorrow then this trade will be missed. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that does not fit an up market. Not sure what that means for tomorrow. There is no consensus with the short term technical indicators on the VIX. Some are oversold and some are mid-range. It appears that we'll just have to let this week pass and take it from there but we'll see what happens on Friday. Europe was up slightly and Asia was generally higher. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

An interesting session as the Dow had a one day reversal to the downside. It finished off 99 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 managed gains but they finished well off of their higher for the day. The NASDAQ still has the most relative strength here though. The S&P 500 remains short term overobuht and is hugging the upper Bollinger band. Might be due for a rest but perhaps we're just waiting for the inflation data on Friday. You could make a case for the SPY February puts now but we'll remain on the sidelines in search of a clearer signal. Gold was off a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The gold shares had a dramatic reversal to the downside after opening the day much higher. Not sure what happened there or what it means going forward. The XAU dropped 2 1/2 and GDX shed 1/2. Volume was above average. The daily candlestick chart for GDX now has a bearish engulfing pattern on it. The short term indicators have rolled back over. My open order remains out there and I'm going to have to decide tonight if I still want to try this idea after todays price action. This could be a case of where the market knows much more than we do. We are just shy of the support at 27.5 for GDX again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced up today and closed just below the 50 day moving average. Not sure exactly what to expect here next after todays movement. Still in oversold territory here but not extremely so. Todays price action leads me to think that the rally in stocks is going to take a rest. We'll see. A lot will depend on the data on Friday but that is still a day away. We'll ponder what to do with the GDX option order tonight and take it from there. Europe and Asia were both higher with the exception of Japan. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 96 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is beginning to move sideways. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 had gains on the day. The S&P remains short term overbought. It feels like the market is just hanging around waiting for the next catalyst for movement. Perhaps Fridays inflation numbers will do the trick. The S&P has broken out to new highs with no more overhead resistance. It appears that the path will be up from here. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The gold shares found buyers as the XAU rose 2 1/2, while GDX gained almost 2/3. Volume was light. My open order for the GDX February calls wasn't filled yesterday and now the options have moved higher. I'm leaving the order out there for now but it's possible that this is a trade that won't happen for me if GDX continues higher from here. The 27.5 support level has held for now and that's a plus. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up with plenty of room to go. I do not think that I'm going to chase it here though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed below its 50 day moving average. Getting short term oversold but not completely there yet. The VIX continues to support the arguement for higher stock prices as does the current leadership of the NASDAQ. Plenty of time left in the February option cycle so hopefully we'll see a solid trading signal soon. Remaining patient for now. Europe was slightly lower and Asia mixed once again. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Continuing higher as the Dow added 138 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. The TRAN was the leader to the upside today. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. No overhead resistance for the S&P so we could go on a run to the upside. No SPY trades for now as we have just rolled into the February option cycle. Plenty of earnings due out in the coming weeks. Gold lost $7 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat, while interest rates were a bit lower. Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. My open order for the GDX February calls is still out there. GDX did drop early today but for some reason my order wasn't filled. GDX remains short term oversold and staying that way. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower again today and has room to move down. It is still stuck at its 50 day moving average. If it can get below that level it should be supportive for stocks. All in all it was a quiet Monday in the stock market. Asia was mixed again and Europe higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Moving higher as the Dow climbed 395 points on good volume. The advance/declines were above 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving lower. The Dow closed at a new all time high as did the S&P 500. The NASDAQ once again led the way up for the bulls. There is not overhead resistance for the S&P. The tight Bollinger bands forecast a big move an it appears to be to the upside. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have moved back up. Not completely overbought yet so we could have room to run. The breadth wasn't all that great considering the size of the move but you can't argue with price. The positive expiration week bias showed up late this time around. If the summation index gets turned around we will have much higher to go. Gold was up $8 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates held steady. Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume. GDX did manage to close above the support line at 27.5. It remains short term oversold. I adjusted my open order for the GDX February calls a couple of times today. Could not figure out whether to just purchase them ahead of the weekend or not. I decided that I would leave my order out there at the price that I was willing to pay. I will be looking for it to get filled on weakness if we see any next week. The fact that gold moved up the past two sessions and the gold shares didn't is a concern. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have rolled over. The VIX is implying higher stock prices to come and some kind of rally from here. It closed at its 50 day moving average. Looking back the SPY January calls had a nice move in the past couple of days before expiration. However that was too short of a time span for our comfort. If we had a solid trading signal perhaps we would have given them a try but we didn't. I'm trying to take advantage of simply the best trading opportunities this year and that requires patience. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. Asia was mixed again and Europe slightly lower to end the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A rally appeared out of nowhere as the Dow gained 202 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving lower. The McClellan oscillator had gotten pretty negative yesterday and was in an area where normally we have at least seen some kind of bounce. We got that today but will it last is the question. I think that it will as I am still a believer in new all time highs on the S&P 500 at some point soon. I could be wrong. The NASDAQ led the way higher today and that's a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back up or are in the process of doing so. Expiration Friday tomorrow and anything goes there. The daily chart for the S&P 500 looks like it has been consolidating for a month or so. One day does not make a trend but it is possible that we are about to break out to the upside here. Gold was up $18 on the futures. The US dollar was barely higher and interest rates in general were steady. The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume. The gold shares not rising with the price of gold is not an encouraging sign for the bulls. GDX is however short term oversold for about a week now. It is also hanging around the long term up trend line support at 27.5. I have my open order out there for the GDX February calls. But I need to decide if I should just purchase the calls here at the price they are at or wait to see if my order will get filled. Also a close below the up trend line would be a bearish development and then the calls would not be the right choice. I'll try and figure out what to do overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and if it continues in that direction it would be a positive for stocks. The 200 day moving average has held the advance in the VIX for now. We'll keep an eye on it moving forward. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

Today seemed like a repeat of yesterday when we were down from the open, bounced around and then finished higher near the end of the day to cut the loss. The Dow fell 94 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. Considering the drop in the summation index, the averages really haven't given up much ground. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving lower with room to go. The Bollinger bands remain tight here, implying that some kind of big move is coming. My guess is still that it will be to the upside and new all time highs for the S&P but of course I could be wrong. We haven't seen the usual option expiration week positive bias yet and there's only two days left. I'm on the sidelines with regards to the S&P for now. Gold was off another twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates rose. The XAU fell 3 1/8, while GDX lost 7/8. Volume was good to the downside. The gold shares appear to be in free fall. GDX has reached the longer term up trend line at 27.5 so we are at the moment of truth. I did adjust my open order for the GDX February calls again and some selling tomorrow would probably get it filled. The longer term up trend line is on a weekly basis, so we could move below there in the next couple of days. As long as the week doesn't close below that level, the trendline would remain valid. The weekly indicators are moving down and have room to go as well so perhaps this is not the right idea at this time. But I'm willing to take the risk here even it it turns out to be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and is now above the upper Bollinger band. The short term indicators continue higher with more room to go which implies some more selling to come for stocks. The VIX remains below its 200 day average. A break above there would be bearish but this indicator is still well below the 20 level. Europe and Asia were both down again. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A downer to begin the shortened trading week as the Dow fell 231 points on better than average volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 ti 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. It could of been worse as the market recovered from the lows on the session. The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 had less of a downside slant but were lower nonetheless. The short term indicators for the S&P are pointing down but we are still in the vicinity of the all time high. It is options expiration week so we can't rule out a trip up to new all time highs. But we'll let the market decide where it wants to go. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold was off twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The gold shares sold off as the XAU fell 4 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/3. Volume was heavy to the downside. I adjusted my open order for the GDX February calls to a lower strike price. The final long term up trend line for GDX comes in about a point away at 27.5. We would like to see GDX reach that level and we'll take our chances with the calls there. Markets rarely, if ever, cooperate. We'll see. Of course GDX could simply continue lower from there as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and closed above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators have turned up with room to go. This implies more selling to come in the near term. The VIX is now touching its upper Bollinger band though and that has the potential to contain things. Some economic data due out this week with retail sales and the Fed beige book tomorrow. Asia and Europe were lower as selling took hold around the world. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Middle East geo-political concerns have returned as the Dow fell 118 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trending lower. The overall market was a little better with both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 eeking out slight gains. The inflation data came in about where expected. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought and on the verge of a possible new all time high. The contracting Bollinger bands here imply a big move is coming. Only four days to go in the January option cycle. Do we try a SPY trade before the close next Friday? Doubtful that we'll see a decent signal before then but you never know. Gold took off to the upside on the Middle East tension as the futures climbed $34. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates dipped. It wasn't a broad flight to safety but gold got the most mileage out of it. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX was up over 3/4. Volume was good to the upside. My open order for the GDX February calls is still out there but doesn't have much of a chance of getting filled unless GDX heads back down. The question is whether to chase this move in gold or not. Lately when we've seen a big one day rise for gold on military news out of the war torn region it hasn't lasted. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back up and have lots of room to go higher. I'm inclined to wait it out for now but we'll check things out over the weekend and go from there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up a bit today. Still short term oversold on the daily chart here. A long holiday weekend for us in the US and there will be plenty of time to go over the facts and figures. Not sure exactly what to expect next week but we'll try and come up with a game plan. Asia finished mixed and Europe was higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for some rest.

Volatility made a comeback as the market bounced around on the hot inflation data. The Dow was down over 250 points during the session but made it back to finish with a gain of 15 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending lower. Early on it looked like the wheels were going to come off the recent rally. But buyers showed up and pushed prices higher. The market has a feel of wanting to go higher after shrugging off todays bad news of higher inflation. The S&P 500 is getting short term overbought but not extremely so. The Bollinger bands continue to contract. The S&P is setting up for a big move and I still think that it will be higher. We'll see. Gold was all over the place as well and the futures finished with a gain of 5 bucks. The US dollar ended the day unchanged, while interest rates were lower despite the higher than expected inflation reading. The XAU was off 1 1/8 and GDX shed 1/4. Volume was average. GDX remains short term oversold. My open order for the GDX February calls remains in place. I still like this trading idea though it would be better if GDX moved a little lower from here to reach the longer term up trend line. May or may not happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued to move lower and is short term oversold on some of the indicators. It still looks like it wants to go lower which would benefit stocks. Option expiration week is coming up with its usual positive bias as well. Perhaps new all time highs on the S&P 500 by option expiration and not the end of this week as I had previously thought. More inflation data tomorrow and then a long holiday weekend. Asia higher and Europe lower once again. We'll see what Friday brings to close out the trading week.

Moving higher ahead of the inflation data as the Dow rose 170 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending lower. Once again the NASDAQ led the way and that is a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 is on the cusp of a new all time high and I suspect that if the inflation report has no surprises we'll get there tomorrow. The technical picture for the S&P has the short term indicators moving up with room to go. The Bollinger bands are contracting so we could see a big move and my guess is that it will be to the upside. But this is the stock market after all so we'll have to wait and see what tomorrow brings us. No SPY trades in mind for right now. Gold was off three bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates held steady. The XAU and GDX both finished barely negative on about average volume. GDX is short term oversold and I could make a case for trying the calls there today. I did place an open order for the GDX February calls in case we see a drop in gold tomorrow. I'm leaving it out there for now. I did not want to take the risk on the January calls but you certainly could make a case for them. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today. The technical picture here remains the same. A low VIX below its 50 day moving average is still implying higher stock prices. Europe and Asia finished mixed in overnight trading. We'll see how the market reacts to the inflation numbers tomorrow and take it from there.

The day was spent in a sideways zone after dropping at the open and the Dow fell 157 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. It appears to me that the overall market took today to digest yesterdays stellar gains. The S&P 500 was only slightly lower and the NASDAQ posted a small gain. The short term indicators for the S&P are neither overbought or oversold. My guess is that stocks will move back up tomorrow. Waiting on inflation data Thursday. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU dropped 1 7/8, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was average. GDX closed below its 50 day moving average and the short term up trend line that was support. It is now short term oversold but I'm waiting on buying the GDX calls for now. There is another up trend line that comes in at 28.5 and a longer term one on the weekly chart at 27.5. Those are the areas that I'm looking at to try the GDX February calls. Not sure if we get there or if those levels will hold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are trending lower with room to go. This should be a positive for stocks unless there is some kind of dramatic turnaround. The VIX is another reason to stay positive on the stock market for now. I still think that new all time highs could occur this week. I would like to point out that I missed a trade in natural gas over the past month when UNG got down to 4.5. It has since risen around 50% in about a month. We did look at it when it was down to 4.5 but were not sure if it would simply continue to drop although it was very oversold. I will look to purchase it if it gets back down there again. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Stocks took off to the upside to begin the week as the Dow gained 216 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving sideways. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way and that is bullish. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. We thought that we would be moving higher from Fridays levels but not this much in a day. It appears that the S&P is poised to hit a new all time high. My SPY January calls gained quite a bit of ground and I sold them in the afternoon for a 200% profit. I probably should have held them as it looks like last weeks decline has run its course. However the huge gain in just a day will have to be enough for now. The entry on this trade was good but the exit may be premature. We'll see how things go from here. Gold dropped $16 on the futures. The US dollar had a slight drop as did interest rates. The gold shares held up well perhaps following the overall advance that we saw in the stock market today. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on pretty light volume. GDX is trying to hang on to its 50 day moving average and the short term up trend line. I'm still looking at the GDX calls but may go out to the February option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are around mid-range. The VIX has room to move lower which would be a plus for stocks but we will have to wait and see what it does from here. Inflation data on Thursday and Friday should be movers for the markets. Earnings season begins Friday as well. If we build on todays gains I'll venture a guess that we see all time highs for the S&P 500 by the end of the week. But that's just a guess. Asia was generally lower and Europe higher to start the trading week overseas. We'll see if we get some upside follow through tomorrow.

It was an up and down type of session as the market tried to figure out how to digest todays jobs report. The Dow managed to finish with a gain of 25 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending lower but in what I believe will be a sideways channel. The employment report was hotter than expected and the market rallied after the open. Then came a sell off followed by another rally attempt and another sell off. The Dow limped home to the upside to finish the day. The S&P 500 managed a slight gain as did the NASDAQ. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P are oversold, others not so much. We are getting a buy signal from one of our indicators on the S&P. I looked to buy weakness today but we didn't see too much. I did however purchase some SPY January calls when the market turned lower in the afternoon. They are showing a slight profit. Management of the trade is something that I'll keep in mind going forward. I'll be looking to take profits earlier this year. Gold bounced around and finished relatively flat on the day. Same for the US dollar. Interest rates had a slight rise. The XAU had a slight fractional loss, while GDX was unchanged. Volume was about average. GDX continues to hold on the support at the up trend line coming in at 29.5. The short term indicators here have the same look as the S&P. Some are oversold, others are mid-range. I do still like the GDX calls at some point but one trade at a time seems to be a reasonable strategy. I'll consider what to do over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and the 50 day moving average proved to be resistance. The indicators here are rolling over and if that continues it would be a positive for stocks. We'll see. I'm in the first trade of the new year. From what we look at the market should move up from here, we just don't know how fast and how much. However signals don't always work and markets go where they want. We'll go over all the charts this weekend as usual. I am confident that this trade will work out to the plus side if I can keep my wits about me. Never easy in this game. Europe was slightly lower and Asia mixed to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Still heading lower for the overall market but the Dow managed a gain of 10 points on light volume. The advance/declines were barely negative. The summation index is beginning to form a sideways channel. The NASDAQ led the way lower again. We are getting to short term overbought on the S&P 500. I do think that any weakness tomorrow can be bought for a short term trade. We will be looking at the SPY January calls if there is some early selling. This certainly wouldn't be a trade to hold for too long but it may be worth the risk. Not sure what to expect from the jobs report so we held off on a taking any trades for the SPY today. Gold gained $8 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were higher. The XAU had a slight fractional gain and GDX finished flat. Volume was light. I did place an open order overnight for the GDX January calls but it was not filled. We'll get the employment report and go from there. The up trend line support on GDX at 29.5 has held for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished little changed and is at its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are overbought but not extremely so. If the 50 day holds we should see some buying in stocks and the indicators roll over. If not the market will head lower. It looks like tomorrow will hold the key as to where we are going. Asia was lower with the exception of India and Europe higher overnight. We'll see about the reaction to the jobs numbers tomorrow.

Ringing in the beginning of a new year with a clang as the second day of trading resulted in more selling. The Dow fell 284 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is turning lower. The NASDAQ led the way lower again and that's a negative. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are heading down with room to go. It appears that a decline has begun. The Santa Claus rally was wiped out and that usually means that the bears are now in control. Support for the S&P comes in at around 4600, which is roughly 100 points away. The S&P 500 is still pretty far away from its 50 day moving average. The potential negative RSI divergence was for real this time around. Is it too late for the SPY January puts? Maybe not if we see some kind of light volume rise from here. But we will probably wait for Fridays jobs report and the reaction to that before making a move. Gold fell $25 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat but lower than the worst levels on the day. The XAU dropped 3 1/4, while GDX shed over 3/4. Volume was heavy to the downside. It appears that the buy signal for GDX that we were getting from one of our indicators yesterday was off. That's why it is always better to have more than one signal going in your favor. GDX did make it down to the first up trend line at 29.5 today. It is not completely short term oversold yet though. So we are in the dilemma of whether to try the GDX January calls now or wait until it gets completely oversold. Again, if stocks continue to sell off the gold shares will most likely follow. However there are no guarantees one way or the other. I am now also thinking about the possibility of heading out to the February option cycle with regards to GDX. So as usual there are plenty of questions with no clear answers. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but is still below its 50 day moving average. The short term technical indicators here are heading up and most have room to go higher. A break above the 50 day would be bearish as the VIX hasn't been above that line since the beginning of November. We'll look things over tonight and try to decide which road to take or simply remain on the sidelines. Europe and Asia were lower as perhaps we're in a worldwide liquidation of sorts at the moment. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We begin the new year with more of a thud than a bang as the Dow was up 25 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is beginning to move sideways. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow again with the NASDAQ losing around two hundred and fifty points. Not the start that most had figured including myself. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over though they remain overbought. Not sure exactly what is next here for stocks but if the potential negative RSI divergence comes to fruition we're going lower. I cannot say for sure at the moment that will be the case as every time in the past two months when it looked like a decline was coming it turned out to be a sideways consolidation before moving higher. That may very well happen this time around too. We'll know more by the price action in the coming sessions. No SPY trades in mind for now. Gold was off $4 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates were higher as well. The XAU dropped 2 1/8, while GDX fell 3/8. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are approaching mid-range. There is an up trend line of support at 29.5 and another at 28. I should probably remain patient here for the GDX calls but one of the things that we look at trading GDX is near a buy signal. Another issue is also that if the overall market heads lower it will probably take the gold shares with it. Never any easy trades in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but finished off of the highest levels on the session. It did break through its upper Bollinger band during the day. There is plenty of room for the short term indicators to move higher but I'm not sure if that will be the case. There's still plenty of time in the January option cycle to make a trade. The employment report on Friday will most likely be the main mover for the week. We'll look over things again tonight and decide what to do from there. Europe and Asia were generally lower to start the year and begin the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Some selling to close out 2023 as the Dow fell 20 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. The major stock indices remain short term overbought with potential negative RSI divergences on the daily charts. I think that most expect the rally to continue to new all time highs for the S&P in the beginning of 2024. I am in that camp for now. But we must respect the fact that markets go where they want and perhaps the indexes will take a rest here. Some type of pullback is certainly overdue. But we will probably watch and wait for now with regards to the SPY until we see what we think is a solid signal. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates held steady. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on about average volume. GDX remains in the short term overbought range. 32 is the level that we need to get through on good volume to continue the move higher here. I would still like to try the GDX January calls at some point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat after being higher during the session. Not sure where it is headed in the near term. My trading for 2023 finished slightly in the black. There were some big gains and some big losses. I will need to work on the management of the trades in order to produce better results. We'll try and focus on taking profits earlier in 2024. I also need to cut down on the huge losses but that is a goal every year. I'll try to have more success with that as well. There will certainly be plenty of trading opportunities as the year goes on. It's another long holiday weekend and all the players will return next week. I'll be checking the charts as usual to try and get ready for the 1st week of the new year. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. Happy New Year everyone.

Another day of hanging around waiting for the year to end as the Dow gained 53 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index rolls on higher. The Dow was once again the leader, while the NASDAQ posted a nominal loss. Technical conditions for the S&P 500 remain overbought and staying that way. We are simply waiting for 2023 to finish and then we'll see how it goes to start the new year. Gold fell around $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped three points and GDX lost over 3/4. Volume was good to the downside despite it being a holiday week. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to roll over. The longer term down trend line remains in place. GDX has areas of support at both 30 and 29.5. One down day doesn't make a trend and we still like the GDX calls at some point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished pretty much flat today. Not sure where it is headed from here. I'd like to simply get through tomorrows market action and move on to 2024. Still plenty of time left in the January option cycle to trade. Asia was up with the exception of Japan and Europe closed lower. We'll finish out the week, month and year tomorrow.

Just hanging around today as the Dow gained 111 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The Dow was the leader today. The technical conditons haven't changed for the major indices. Waiting on new all time highs for the S&P 500. It is a holiday mode market and we are simply waiting for the new year to begin at this point. Trying to stay patient for now. Gold jumped almost twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX added 1/3. Volume was light. We still want to try the GDX January calls at some point. GDX is now right at the down trend line that began in early 2022. We want to be on board with the calls when that line is broken to the upside with volume. However GDX is both short and medium term overbought at the moment. That doesn't mean that it can't stay that way but it does mean that the risk is elevated to attempt the trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with a positive market. The short term indicators have now turned down with room to go lower. This implys more near term gains for the stock market and the Santa Claus rally continues. Europe and Asia finished higher as the overseas markets get into the holiday spirit. A new all time high for the Dow today as we wait for the other indexes to follow suit. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The Santa Claus rally is in full swing as the Dow gained 159 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ continues to lead but we must be reminded that the market is in holiday mode. You cannot argue with price though. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought with potential negative divergences looming. But for now it is all systems on go with the chance to break out to new all time highs in the coming sessions. We will remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options until the new year. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remained steady. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume. GDX is short term overbought but not at extremes. We will try and wait for a pullback here before attempting the January calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch lower today. The short term technical indicators here are mid-range. Not sure where the VIX heads next but with the market moving higher I'd guess that the VIX will trend lower. However it is hard to put much stock into this week as many of the players are off and will not return to their desks until the new year. Markets that were open overseas were muted and mixed. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Inflation data came in where expected and it was pretty much a lackluster holiday trading session. The Dow lost 18 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posting gains. The S&P remains short term overbought. We are entering a long holiday weekend followed by the last week of the year. I would expect light trading next week and no major surprises. On the sidelines still with regards to teh SPY. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The dollar was a bit lower and interest rates remained steady. The XAU was up a point and GDX rose almost 1/4. Volume was average. The gold shares did drop from their best levels on the day. We will try and wait for some pullback here before attempting the GDX January calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and some of the short term indicators have rolled over. Not sure where it goes from here but the daily candlestick chart looks constructive for lower readings going forward. That would be a plus for stocks. We are also in the Santa Claus rally time period so higher stock prices from here would not be a surprise. We'll check the charts over the break and try and come up with a game plan for the new year. Europe and Asia were mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. Merry Christmas everyone.

Buyers were back in charge today as the Dow climbed 322 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. Yesterdays huge decline looks like a one day wonder but we'll have to see tomorrows reaction to the inflation data to be sure. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that's a plus. The S&P 500 does remain short term overbought though. I'd expect most of the activity to take place early tomorrow as traders head home early for the holiday and the bond market closes early. The stock market remains in rally mode although we could head sideways here to relieve some of the overbought condition. We'll remain on the sidelines for now. Gold was up $8 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remain steady. The XAU was up a couple points and GDX rose over 1/2. Volume was light. I'm still considering the GDX January calls but will remain patient for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today. The short term indicators here are starting to roll back over. This would be a positive for stocks if it continues. We'll know more after the reaction to the inflation data out tomorrow. The VIX does remain at low levels and as long as that continues the trend will be higher for the market. We are entering holiday mode for the markets so the volume will be light and the conviction of the moves in question. The Santa Claus rally is due to begin tomorrow. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower in last nights trade. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Finally we saw some selling today that was long overdue as the Dow fell 475 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. Things were moving along to the upside as usual until there were only a couple of hours left in the session. Then the selling started and just fed on itself as it was practically a straight line down closing on the lows of the day. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned down but they are still overbought. I don't think that this is the beginning of some kind of huge decline but rather a well needed rest before the S&P goes on to a new all time high. We'll see. Perhaps we'll get a set up for the SPY January calls. Waiting for the end of the week and Fridays inflation numbers before commiting to any type of trade. Gold dropped $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates lower on the day. The XAU fell 2 7/8, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was on the light side. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to roll over. The daily candlestick chart here now has a bearish engulfing pattern on it. There is also a potential negative divergence on the RSI daily indicator. So while we are inclined to try the GDX January calls, we will wait and see where things go from here with regards to the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX took off to the upside and closed above the upper Bollinger band. The short term indicators are moving up with room to go. I'm not sure what's next for the VIX as we got the volatility implied by the tight Bollinger bands today. Perhaps we'll travel up to the 50 day moving average at 15 but that's just a guess. We'll keep an eye on it. The extreme overbought market conditons are finally getting some relief. How long the relief lasts is the next question. The Santa Claus rally is supposed to start on Friday and last seven trading days. Perhaps todays decline will allow that to take place. We'll know as time moves on. Asia And Europe were mixed in yesterdays trading overseas. We'll see if there is any follow through selling in stocks tomorrow.

Hihger and higher we climb as the Dow gained 251 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Sellers are nowhere to be found. At this point we are just repeating the same thing day after day. Extremely short term overbought and staying that way. But it is in fact what's happening. There is no telling how long this will go on and we are not about to guess when it ends. We are content to watch from the sidelines for now as there is plenty of time in the January option cycle to trade. The S&P 500 is pretty far from its 50 day moving average and that won't last forever. We'll remain patient adn perhaps will not put on a new trade until the new year. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remain steady. The XAU rose 3 1/2, while GDX added over 3/4. Volume was good to the upside and money continues to find a home in this space. GDX is short term overbought but not extremely so. There is a longer term down trend line at 32.5 to get through and that is a point away. I'm still looking at the GDX January calls despite the recent advance. Getting through 32.5 would point to 35 as the next target. What are we waiting for? Some type of decline or consolidation as there is so much time left for the January options that the premiums are pretty pricey. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX pretty much finished flat today. The tight Bollinger bands stand out on the daily chart. The VIX is so low already that I can't think that the next move there will be even lower but anything is possible I guess. I'm still voting for an increase in volatility and some kind of market drop in the near term. Long overdue in fact but again, we won't stand in the way of this rally. Europe and Asia finised higher with the exception of Hong Kong. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The buying spree continues for the overall market but the Dow finished flat on average volume. The advance/declines were around even. The summation index is still moving up. It feels like holiday mode already as we opened higher and trended that way for much of the session. The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 led the way. The S&P remains extremely short term overbought and has been overbought for a month and a half. Sellers have vanished. This cannot go on indefinately. However trying to step in front of this freight train is not advised. Plenty of time in the January option cycle and the sidelines makes sense for now with regards to the SPY. Gold was up five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was flat along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on light volume. You can see that the theme today was lackluster trading all around. Do not be surpirsed if that continues. I like the GDX January calls still if we get some pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which doesn't fit todays price action. The short term indicators here have finally turned up. Combine that with the very tight Bollinger bands on the daily chart and you have a recipe for more volatility in the near term. That would not fit with our holiday mode thesis so we'll have to see how the rest of this week plays out. Asia and Europe were lower with the exception of the FTSE. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

We finished the week on a mixed note as the Dow gained 56 points on very heavy expiration related volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues higher. The S&P 500 closed with a fractional loss and remains short term overbought to the extreme. I would expect to see some selling or at least sideways movement next week but you never know. Perhaps we'll just plow on to new all time highs. But my guess is some kind of pause to set up the Santa Claus rally which takes place the last five trading days of the year followed by the first two days of the new year. Whatever squaring of the books for 2023 will take place next week as many players will be off between Christmas and New Years. We will wait for some kind of trading signal in the SPY before attempting anything there. Ideally something that sets us up for the calls because the market is in a bullish mode. Gold was off $11 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates remained steady. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume. I still favor the January calls for GDX and a few of the short term indicators are trying to turn lower here. I'll consider placing an order for some next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is still short term oversold as it moved lower today. The daily Bollinger bands are getting closer together suggesting that we'll see some kind of outsized move in this indicator soon. We'll see. What we do know is that as long as the VIX stays low the rally has room to go. An extra week in the January option cycle so premiums will be high but there is more time for ideas to work. We'll go over the charts this weekend as usual. Asia was higher and Europe generally lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Some follow through to yesterdays huge gains as the Dow added 158 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The Dow is leading here and set a new all time high yesterday. That isn't the most bullish scenario but we expect the other major averages to set new all time highs in the coming weeks. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought to an extreme at this point. Pretty far removed from its 50 day moving average. Moving back up in a straight line again as well. Overdue for some type of decline but so far in this rally all we get is sideways consolidation. You cannot argue with price though so we'll just have to see how far it goes. The heavy volume in the past two sessions is another plus. Gold was up $54 on the futures. The US dollar continues to drop along with interest rates. The XAU was up 3 1/4, while GDX gained 5/8. Volume was heavy again to the upside for the gold shares although they did finish off of the best levels on the session. We still like the GDX January call idea and will look to purchase some on weakness. Obviously we've missed the ideal time to try this idea but I still believe that there is money to be made. I could be wrong. 5 weeks in the January option cycle so there will be plenty of time for this trade idea to work. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today and continues to be short term oversold. It also touched its lower Bollinger band for the third day in a row. The low level here continues to support gains in the stock market for now. It's a bull market and we're on a bull run. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see how the week finishes with expiration Friday tomorrow.

The Fed spoke and the market loved what it heard as the Dow climbed 512 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. It was a huge rally as all the stock indices celebrated Christmas a little early. The S&P 500 is short term overbought, staying that way and getting to extremes. New all time highs for the S&P will be coming in the following weeks. The Fed is done raising rates and will be looking to cut according to todays monologue. In retrospect the December SPY calls were not a bad idea but we were not willing to take the risk. Obviously did not anticipate a dovish Fed. The S&P is now pretty far from its 50 day moving average and that cannot last forever. But we will not stand in the way of this freight train as the bulls are clearly in charge. Gold took off with stocks as the futures rose $46. The US dollar got clobbered and interest rates sank. The gold shares rallied with the XAU gaining 7 1/8 and GDX jumping over 1 3/4. Volume was heavy to the upside. My order for the GDX January calls never got filled. I still like this idea but after missing todays move we'll have to wait and see if we get any pullback in order to give it a try. The short term indicators for GDX have now turned back up however there is still plenty of room for them to go higher. I don't think that today is just a one day wonder for gold but we'll see. It was an incredible move in the gold shares that the likes we haven't seen in quite a while. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as we were looking in the right direction but not able to take advantage of the situation. But you've got to keep moving forward in the game. The VIX was up a touch as it bounced off of the lower Bollinger band again. This indicator has been short term oversold for so long it is beginning to lose any kind of useful reference for us. What it does point out is that with such low readings the bulls are in charge. Two days left in the December option cycle as the bullish expiration week bias has been in full force. I guess we'll see how far the market can go. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what kind of follow through we get tomorrow.

Continuing to move higher as the Dow gained 173 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving higher. The signal for a big move in stocks from the McClellan oscillator on Friday did not pan out. The inflation data came in where expected. After initially moving lower the market recovered and trended higher for the rest of the session. It was another one day reversal to the upside. The potential negative RSI divergence on the daily chart for the S&P 500 is gone. The short term indicators for the S&P are now extremely overbought. I suspect that we'll have to see some kind of selling very soon. However we have clearly gotten through the resistance at 4600 and the trend is up. We'll see what happens with the inflation data and the Fed tomorrow. Gold finished practically flat on the futures today. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were slightly down. The XAU lost 3 1/8, while GDX dropped 2/3. Volume was above average. GDX is almost short term oversold. I adjusted my open order for the GDX January calls to a closer to the money strike price. Another day like today would most likely get it filled. The gold shares dropping with gold going nowhere is bearish. GDX has made it all the way back to its 50 day moving average. Perhaps the idea of the January calls here is the wrong one. I will reconsider this overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues to head south for the lowest close of the year. Still short term oversold as it has been for almost a month and a half. This too cannot go on forever. The VIX did touch its lower Bollinger band and bounce off of it today so perhaps it will move higher tomorrow. We'll see. Asia was higher with the exception of India while Europe was marginally lower. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

Another one day reversal to the upside as stock markets opened lower and closed higher. The Dow gained 157 points on light volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index continues higher. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator on Friday for a big move within the next two trading days. Today really doesn't qualify, for we had muted gains besides the Dow. So we'll see how it goes tomorrow. We still have the potential negative RSI divergence on the S&P 500 daily chart. However the S&P is now comfortably above the resistance at 4600. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Inflation data out tomorrow will most likely be the market mover. Gold lost $18 on the futures. The US dollar and interest rates finished little changed ahead of the inflation report. The XAU lost a point and GDX shed 1/8. Volume was light. The gold shares held up much better than gold and also finished up from the worst levels of the day. Not yet short term oversold for GDX on the daily chart. I did place an open order out there for the GDX January calls but it will take some more decline for it to be filled. If GDX makes it back to the 50 day moving average the order should be filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished higher today which doesn't fit with an up market. Still short term oversold here. Inflation data to be reported for the next two days in a row followed by the Fed later on Wednesday. So we should be ready for some kind of volatility either up or down. Not exactly sure what to expect so we'll be on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Asia and Europe were generally higher. WE'll see how the market reacts to the inflation numbers tomorrow.

Mild gains today as the Dow rose 130 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The employment data came in about where expected. We had a rally, then a sell off and another rally into the close. The NASDAQ barely led the way higher. The S&P 500 did close above the resistance at 4600. It still remains short term overbought with a possible negative divergence on the daily RSI. We are not looking at the SPY December calls anymore with a week to go in the December option cycle. Gold dropped $25 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 1 3/8, while GDX shed almost 2/3. Volume was good to the downside. The gold shares had a bearish week led by the one day downside reversal on Monday. That should have been our cue to exit the GDX December call trade. But it was poorly managed by me once again. I dumped the calls today for a 55% loss. We have now seen GDX close below the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern that had a valid breakout last week. So there is the likelyhood that the pattern will be negated and the breakout was false. It happens. The short term indicators for GDX are now mid-range. If they do make it down to oversold we'll probably try the GDX January calls as the January option cycle has an extra week in it. But that doesn't cancel the fact that the recent GDX trade had a nice profit that I failed to capture. We were looking for the 34 level for GDX and it did not even make it to 32. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as we chalk up another losing trade. I suppose the short term goal now is to try and not do anything stupid next week. But win or lose moving on is next thing to do. The VIX was down to close at the lowest level on the year. Still short term oversold but not at extremes. The VIX is still implying higher stock prices to come. We've got inflation data and the Fed next week so there will be plenty of excuses for the markets to move. I would expect things to quiet down after that with the holidays coming up towards the end of the month. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Buyers showed up ahead of tomorrows employment report as the Dow rose 63 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. The S&P 500 is still in a sideways pattern but the short term indicators are turning back up. Still short term overbought though and below the resistance of 4600. Not sure what will happen tomorrow but todays price action was encouraging for the bulls. Or SPY Decmber call idea is back on the shelf after the S&P already moving higher today. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were flat. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses again on light volume. My GDX December calls are barely in the black. We had GDX make it back to the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern today at the 30 level. The next technical expectation is to move higher from here. I did place an order for the GDX January calls but it wasn't filled. The price action for gold and the gold shares hasn't been bullish lately. Todays drop in the dollar should have resulted in a rally for the precious metal but none occured. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished barely higher today which doesn't fit with an up market. The short term indicators here remain oversold but not as much as they were. The low readings on the VIX imply higher prices for stocks as we move forward. We'll have to see how the markets react to the jobs report and go from there. Europe and Asia finished lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 70 points on average volume. The advance/declines were barely negative. The summation index is still moving up. Most of the major stock indices had a gap up at the open but then sold off for the rest of the day. That's negative price action to be sure. The NASDAQ led the way lower as well which isn't a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving lower with room to go. It has still basically moved sideways for the past couple of weeks but another down day will change things. Not sure why we are seeing the selling but we still like the idea of the SPY December calls if and when we reach short term oversold. Perhaps by the end of this week or the beginning of the next. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on light volume. The fact that they could not show a gain when gold itself was up is negative. The short term indicators for GDX are still heading down. My GDX December calls are still at a small profit. Looks like we'll wait and see the reaction to Fridays jobs report before deciding on whether to continue to hold on to this trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up just a bit today. The short term indicators here are trying to move up. Still oversold on the VIX but not at extremes. Not sure what to expect next here for stocks but Friday should provide the near term answers. We'll be patient and wait for now unless something dramatic occurs tomorrow. My guess is that it will be a waiting game. Europe and Asia finished up on the session. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The mixed market theme continues as the Dow fell 79 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ posted a small gain while the S&P 500 was barely lower. The short term indicators for the S&P have now rolled over with plenty of room to go lower. Still short term overbought there but not as much as lately. Not sure what the next move for the S&P is and we may have to wait until Fridays jobs report to find out. Markets have stopped moving straight up though as the easy money has already been made. If we continue to see a dip we might try the SPY December calls. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU fell 2 1/3, while GDX lost over 1/2. Volume was good to the downside as traders are getting out of their gold positions. The short term technical indicators for GDX are moving lower from overbought readings. I'm still holding on to the GDX December calls and they still have a small gain. It appears that the best time to exit this trade has passed. The price action now is heading back to the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart which lies at the 30 level. 30 should contain the recent decline and price should move back up from there. That is a reasonable conclusion of the price action for GDX but markets go where they want. We are counting on the technical analysis to work but it never has been 100%. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains oversold but not at an extreme level. Don't know what to expect next here. Still plenty of time left in the December option cycle. We'll have the Fed to deal with next week as well. Asia was lower with the exception of India and Europe higher except for the FTSE. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Sellers took over in the overall market to begin the week but the Dow only fell 41 points on good volume. The advance/declines were barely negative. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. We had a gap down at the open on the S&P 500. It did manage to finish off of the worst levels on the session. The short term indicators still remain overbought though and we'll need more than what we saw today to relieve that condition. Still pretty far removed from the 50 day moving average for most of the major stock averages.. We do have economic data out this week with the jobs report on Friday as the main event. Gold was highly volatile on the futures as the daily range was over $100. Overnight there was jump to the $2150 level only to see sellers take over and drive the price back back to below $2050. It finished off over forty bucks. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The gold shares sank with the XAU dropping 3 1/3 and GDX losing over 3/4. Volume was heavy to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled over but are still overbought. My GDX December calls are still in the black but were cut in half today. Managing things from here won't be easy after todays price action. I'm still a believer in the gold shares but they are due for a rest just like the overall market. I'll consider where we go from here overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today but is still short term oversold. If it continues higher perhaps we'll see the pause in the market uptrend that is overdue. Or maybe the market just goes sideways from here. When in doubt, stay out is how the saying goes. Perhaps trying the SPY December calls before expiration isn't a good idea but we are still considering it. Asia was lower with the exception of India and Europe finished little changed one way or the other. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Still powering higher as the Dow gained 294 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 6 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. It was a one day reversal to the upside for the S&P 500 as it opened lower and closed higher. Still short term overbought here as we've reached the next level of resistance at 4600. Will we see a pause? We should, as the stock market is long overdue for some kind of decline. The angle of ascent that we've seen simply cannot be sustained forever. The short term indicators for the S&P are beginning to reach extremes. However we'd only be guessing if we think now is the time for some selling because the market is on a roll. We certainly would not recommend trying the SPY puts anytime soon because the trend is steeply up. Gold jumped almost $35 on the futures and closed at a new all time high. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX rose 1/2. Volume was good to the upside. The gold shares did not rise as much as expected with gold itself having such a good day. However GDX is very short term overbought and some kind of sideways price action or decline is likely at this point. I would still like to wait until it gets to at least the 33 level before selling the GDX December calls that I own but we'll have to wait and see. Two weeks left in the December option cycle so managing the trade from here is the key. The gold shares are starting to act like the overall market itself, up with no downside. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains oversold to the extreme. There seems to be nothing but buyers out there now but that will chenge eventually and probably sooner rather than later. We'll have to be on our toes to figure out the remaining two weeks in the December option cycle. I'll check all the charts as usual this weekend. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.