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Friday, January 26, 2024

Mixed to end the week as the Dow added 60 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. Inflation data turned out to be mild but it turned into a back and forth session for stocks. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 finished in the red. The S&P remains short term overbought. Medium term overbought as well. I can make a case here for the SPY February puts. If the market holds up ahead of the Fed on Wednesday, that could be the next trade. It would be short term in nature as we have had a valid breakout above 4800. But a trip back to the breakout point would not be out of the question. I'll consider it over the weekend. Gold finished flat on the session. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates a bit higher. Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. I adjusted down my open order for the GDX February calls. Not exactly sure if this idea remains valid as there isn't a lot of interest in owning gold here. Light volume equals little interest. 27.5 has still held for GDX though so as long as it does I have to believe that the longer term trend line will hold in here and we'll start to move higher. The gold shares should move on what the Fed has to say as well. Which way is always the question. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but did remain above its 50 day moving average. No clear signal from the short term technical indicators here. Perhaps things are just waiting on the Fed next week. There should be no change in rates but the speech that follows could spark some volatility. Plenty of earnings still to come as well. Lots of time left in the February option cycle so that isn't a concern. We'll go over the charts this weekend to come up with a game plan for next week. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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