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Wednesday, January 24, 2024

An interesting session as the Dow had a one day reversal to the downside. It finished off 99 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 managed gains but they finished well off of their higher for the day. The NASDAQ still has the most relative strength here though. The S&P 500 remains short term overobuht and is hugging the upper Bollinger band. Might be due for a rest but perhaps we're just waiting for the inflation data on Friday. You could make a case for the SPY February puts now but we'll remain on the sidelines in search of a clearer signal. Gold was off a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The gold shares had a dramatic reversal to the downside after opening the day much higher. Not sure what happened there or what it means going forward. The XAU dropped 2 1/2 and GDX shed 1/2. Volume was above average. The daily candlestick chart for GDX now has a bearish engulfing pattern on it. The short term indicators have rolled back over. My open order remains out there and I'm going to have to decide tonight if I still want to try this idea after todays price action. This could be a case of where the market knows much more than we do. We are just shy of the support at 27.5 for GDX again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced up today and closed just below the 50 day moving average. Not sure exactly what to expect here next after todays movement. Still in oversold territory here but not extremely so. Todays price action leads me to think that the rally in stocks is going to take a rest. We'll see. A lot will depend on the data on Friday but that is still a day away. We'll ponder what to do with the GDX option order tonight and take it from there. Europe and Asia were both higher with the exception of Japan. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

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