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Thursday, January 11, 2024

Volatility made a comeback as the market bounced around on the hot inflation data. The Dow was down over 250 points during the session but made it back to finish with a gain of 15 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending lower. Early on it looked like the wheels were going to come off the recent rally. But buyers showed up and pushed prices higher. The market has a feel of wanting to go higher after shrugging off todays bad news of higher inflation. The S&P 500 is getting short term overbought but not extremely so. The Bollinger bands continue to contract. The S&P is setting up for a big move and I still think that it will be higher. We'll see. Gold was all over the place as well and the futures finished with a gain of 5 bucks. The US dollar ended the day unchanged, while interest rates were lower despite the higher than expected inflation reading. The XAU was off 1 1/8 and GDX shed 1/4. Volume was average. GDX remains short term oversold. My open order for the GDX February calls remains in place. I still like this trading idea though it would be better if GDX moved a little lower from here to reach the longer term up trend line. May or may not happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued to move lower and is short term oversold on some of the indicators. It still looks like it wants to go lower which would benefit stocks. Option expiration week is coming up with its usual positive bias as well. Perhaps new all time highs on the S&P 500 by option expiration and not the end of this week as I had previously thought. More inflation data tomorrow and then a long holiday weekend. Asia higher and Europe lower once again. We'll see what Friday brings to close out the trading week.

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