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Tuesday, January 16, 2024

A downer to begin the shortened trading week as the Dow fell 231 points on better than average volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 ti 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. It could of been worse as the market recovered from the lows on the session. The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 had less of a downside slant but were lower nonetheless. The short term indicators for the S&P are pointing down but we are still in the vicinity of the all time high. It is options expiration week so we can't rule out a trip up to new all time highs. But we'll let the market decide where it wants to go. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold was off twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The gold shares sold off as the XAU fell 4 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/3. Volume was heavy to the downside. I adjusted my open order for the GDX February calls to a lower strike price. The final long term up trend line for GDX comes in about a point away at 27.5. We would like to see GDX reach that level and we'll take our chances with the calls there. Markets rarely, if ever, cooperate. We'll see. Of course GDX could simply continue lower from there as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and closed above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators have turned up with room to go. This implies more selling to come in the near term. The VIX is now touching its upper Bollinger band though and that has the potential to contain things. Some economic data due out this week with retail sales and the Fed beige book tomorrow. Asia and Europe were lower as selling took hold around the world. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

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