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Friday, January 19, 2024

Moving higher as the Dow climbed 395 points on good volume. The advance/declines were above 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving lower. The Dow closed at a new all time high as did the S&P 500. The NASDAQ once again led the way up for the bulls. There is not overhead resistance for the S&P. The tight Bollinger bands forecast a big move an it appears to be to the upside. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have moved back up. Not completely overbought yet so we could have room to run. The breadth wasn't all that great considering the size of the move but you can't argue with price. The positive expiration week bias showed up late this time around. If the summation index gets turned around we will have much higher to go. Gold was up $8 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates held steady. Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume. GDX did manage to close above the support line at 27.5. It remains short term oversold. I adjusted my open order for the GDX February calls a couple of times today. Could not figure out whether to just purchase them ahead of the weekend or not. I decided that I would leave my order out there at the price that I was willing to pay. I will be looking for it to get filled on weakness if we see any next week. The fact that gold moved up the past two sessions and the gold shares didn't is a concern. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have rolled over. The VIX is implying higher stock prices to come and some kind of rally from here. It closed at its 50 day moving average. Looking back the SPY January calls had a nice move in the past couple of days before expiration. However that was too short of a time span for our comfort. If we had a solid trading signal perhaps we would have given them a try but we didn't. I'm trying to take advantage of simply the best trading opportunities this year and that requires patience. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. Asia was mixed again and Europe slightly lower to end the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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