Pageviews past week

Wednesday, January 17, 2024

Today seemed like a repeat of yesterday when we were down from the open, bounced around and then finished higher near the end of the day to cut the loss. The Dow fell 94 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. Considering the drop in the summation index, the averages really haven't given up much ground. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving lower with room to go. The Bollinger bands remain tight here, implying that some kind of big move is coming. My guess is still that it will be to the upside and new all time highs for the S&P but of course I could be wrong. We haven't seen the usual option expiration week positive bias yet and there's only two days left. I'm on the sidelines with regards to the S&P for now. Gold was off another twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates rose. The XAU fell 3 1/8, while GDX lost 7/8. Volume was good to the downside. The gold shares appear to be in free fall. GDX has reached the longer term up trend line at 27.5 so we are at the moment of truth. I did adjust my open order for the GDX February calls again and some selling tomorrow would probably get it filled. The longer term up trend line is on a weekly basis, so we could move below there in the next couple of days. As long as the week doesn't close below that level, the trendline would remain valid. The weekly indicators are moving down and have room to go as well so perhaps this is not the right idea at this time. But I'm willing to take the risk here even it it turns out to be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and is now above the upper Bollinger band. The short term indicators continue higher with more room to go which implies some more selling to come for stocks. The VIX remains below its 200 day average. A break above there would be bearish but this indicator is still well below the 20 level. Europe and Asia were both down again. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

No comments: