Sellers took over today and the market got clobbered. The Dow fell 748 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to turn down. Not sure exactly what happened today but the techncial landscape has changed. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 dropped 1 3/4% and back to its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here have now rolled over, heading lower with room to go. We will have to figure out if today was expiration related or the beginning of something sustained to the downside. I'm inclined to think that it's the latter but we'll have to go over things this weekend to be sure. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar was a little higher and interest rates dropped. The gold shares followed the overall market lower. The XAU fell 6 2/3, while GDX dropped 1 1/2. Volume was good to the downside. Today GDX broke through the up trend line that had been in place since thestart of 2025. The short term indicators here are now moving lower with room to go. If GDX gets to short term oversold I'm going to try the calls here. I don't think that traders have lost interest in gold yet as the metal itself continues to attract capital. Ideally if the stock market tanks and takes GDX with it that would be the time to purchase some gold share calls. However the market rarely cooperates with your best laid plans. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped up today and closed on its upper Bollinger band. The short term indicators have moved up from oversold. I thought that the VIX would continue lower from here and that was wrong. Not sure what to expect next here as we don't know if today was a one day wonder of the beginning of something real to the downside for stocks. I'll go over the charts this weekend to try and come up with a near term game plan for next week. Rolling into the March option cycle. Europe was mixed and Asia higher with the exception of India to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

An early sell off this morning but it was followed by buying for the rest of the session. The Dow fell 451 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is beginning to trend sideways again. There seems to be a worldwide exit from equities for the past couple of days but not so much in the US. The Dow led the way lower today and that's not the worst case scenario. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. I'm still in the process of considering what the next SPY option trade will be. Expiration Friday on tap and moving to the March option cycle early will have high premiums. Waiting on a decent technical signal to get the next idea. This is one of those times where you just got to have some patience but that isn't always easy. Gold was up $16 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were slightly down. The XAU gained 2 3/4 and GDX up up about 3/4. Volume was light. GDX remains short term overbought. NEM reports earnings after the closing bell. I might consider the GDX puts again in the March option cycle. GDX remains pretty far above its 50 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but off of the highest levels on the session. Remaining short term oversold but the daily candlestick chart still looks like it wants to go lower. For now it looks like the VIX has support at 14.75 that it can't get through for lower readings and higher stock prices. We'll keep an eye on what occurs going forward. Expiration Friday will be a toss-up as usual. Asia was down and Europe mostly lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Drifting higher as the Dow gained 71 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. Another new all time high for the S&P 500. It remains short term overbought and still up against the upper Bollinger band. That is why I don't expect any sharp move higher for now but we'll see. Also the negative breadth today along with a drop in the TRAN could mean that we'll see some actual selling tomorrow. But it is option expiration week so anything goes. Gold finished flat on the session. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates were little changed. The XAU was fractionally lower and GDX finished unchanged. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX have moved a bit lower but remain overbought. We haven't seen any follow through selling to Fridays losses so that's a plus for the bulls. However not following gold back up in the short term raises some questions. We'll look to the March option cycle here but not sure which way to go. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today. Still short term oversold. The daily candlestick chart here looks like that it wants to go lower which would be bullish for stocks. Only a couple of trading days left in the week and we are remaining on the sidelines. I'm still waiting for some kind of decent technical signal to attempt the next trade. We will not try an force things for now. Europe finished down and Asia was generally lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Sideways trading action to begin the short week as the Dow rose 10 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to move higher. There were slight gains in most of the major averages today. The S&P 500 did manage to close at a new all time high. It remains short term overbought and at the top of the Bollinger bands. I still think that the S&P will move higher from here but it won't be anything resembling robust. I could be wrong. Expiration week with not a lot of market data to digest. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold futures gained back the fifty bucks that they lost on Friday. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU added 2 points and GDX was up 1/2. Volume was average. Considering the rise in the price of gold, the gold shares didn't move much. I'm not considering the GDX February puts anymore as that opportunity looks like it was just a one day affair. It appears that I won't be making any trades in the February option cycle unless something out of the ordinary occurs. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today despite a lack of price movement in stocks. It remains short term oversold. The VIX remains below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Not sure what's coming next here for the VIX. No clear tecnnical signals for a trade right now so we'll have to remain patient. Not the easiest thing to do sometimes but that is where we are. Asia finished mixed with Europe higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A day of hanging around before a long weekend as the Dow fell 165 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to head higher but stuck in a sideways crawl. The NASDAQ posted a gain on the session while the S&P 500 finished basically flat. The S&P is still short term overbought and is now up against the upper Bollinger band on the daily chart. I still think that we'll be moving higher from here so I did not purchase any SPY February puts heading into the weekend. That idea was simply insurance against any kind of surprise over the 3 day weekend. I could make a technical case for it as well but decided not to. Not to mention that there are only 4 days left in the February option cycle. My track record on the short term trades is not very good. Gold got clobbered today as the futures fell fifty bucks. There was also a dramatic one day reversal in silver. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates again. With both gold and the dollar down it appears that we are seeing an unwinding of the safe haven trade. Although usually a lower dollar is supportive of the price for gold. The XAU lost 6 1/4, while GDX fell 1 3/8. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have now turned lower. I missed this trade as my orders for the GDX puts weren't filled and I canceled them. I'm not sure if this is the beginning of a sustained move lower for the gold shares or just a break in the ongoing up trend. I'll try and figure things out over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed below the support at 15. Short term oversold but the VIX seems to be implying that it is heading lower. This would fit with my belief that stocks are moving higher from here with new all time highs in the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ forthcoming. We'll see. An extra day to go over the charts this weekend but it looks like there will be no trades for me in the February option cycle. Asia and Europe ended the week on a mixed note. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The big move foretold by the McClellan oscillator showed up today as the Dow gained 342 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is once again trying to move higher. The NASDAQ led the way today and that's a plus for the bulls. The inflation data came in about where expected today. The S&P 500 rose 1% and got through the near term resistance short term down trend line. It closed just shy of a new all time high. The short term indicators on the S&P have turned back up. Once we get past the old high there won't be any more overhead resistance. So it appears that we'll be heading higher from here. Volume has also picked up since the beginning of the year which shows there has been plenty of interest in owning equities. Gold was up $28 to close at a new all time high on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 1 3/4 and GDX gained 3/8. Volume was light. I am still looking at the GDX February puts as the next trade but time is running out on this idea with only 5 days left in this months option cycle. The US dollar chart looks like it is about to break down which would also be a plus for gold. However GDX has been short term overbought for over a month now and this cannot go on forever. It is more than overdue for more than a one or two day pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. The near term support on the daily chart is in the 15 area and we are there now. A break below there would mean higher stock prices and that looks like where we are going. Another idea that I was considering was getting some SPY February puts in front of the long holiday weekend in the US in case we get some surprises over the 3 days that the US market will be closed. It has some techncial merit as we are short term overbought. I'll consider it tomorrow. Asia was mixed and Europe higher with the exception of the FTSE in last nights trade. We'll see how things close out for the week tomorrow.

The inflation data came in hot and the market had a gap down at the open. However as has been the case lately it spent the rest of the session trying to climb out of the hole. The Dow fell 225 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is back in a sideways mode. The NASDAQ actually had a slight gain on the day. The S&P 500 had a slight loss. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move with the next two sessions. Perhaps today qualified with the big gap down early but we'll see what happens tomorrow. The short term indicators for the S&P are heading sideways with no clear direction. The Bollinger bands here are starting to contract as well. Something should happen one way or the other before option expiration and I'm still leaning towards the call side. Gold was off $8 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates jumped up. The XAU was up 3 1/8, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was average. There seems to be no stopping the gold shares. GDX continues to short term oversold with no break. Overextended and staying that way. Yes, I still want to try the GDX February puts at some point but when that point is may not arrive. Money continues to pour into gold and the gold shares despite the overbought conditions. This has turned into a freight train that you don't want to step in front of. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower which doesn't fit with a down market. It did finish well off of the best levels on the day though. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower which would mean higher stock prices. Still short term oversold for the VIX. To me it appears that the S&P 500 along with the VIX are setting up for something big here soon. Which way is always the question. Europe was up and Asia generally higher overnight. More inflation data out tomorrow. We'll see how that goes.

Hanging around waiting on the inflation data was the story of today as the Dow added 123 points on what passes for average volume lately. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is barely moving higher. It was a mixed bag as the NASDAQ posted a small loss, while the S&P 500 finished flat. The short term indicators for the S&P are tracking sideways but that should end tomorrow as we will no doubt see price movement off of the inflation report. Which way is always the question and I think that we'll be heading higher. You can make a case for either direction though and with no clear technical signal I'll have to remain on the sidelines here when it comes to the to the SPY options. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU dropped 2 3/4, while GDX slipped 1/2. Volume was light. I did place another overnight order for the GDX February puts but it wasn't filled and I canceled it during the session. GDX remains short term overbought and extended to the upside. I may be too late for this trade if things head south tomorrow on the inflation data. However if the markets rally and gold goes with it, I still might try the GDX puts here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX ended with a small gain. Still in the short term oversold for some of the indicators. Bollinger bands contracting here and I'm not sure where the VIX goes next. Tomorrow will probably provide us with some answers. Asia was generally lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Moving higher to start the week as the Dow rose 167 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ led things higher today and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to turn back up. If successful we should break through the short term down trend line and head on to new all time highs. A lot will probably depend on this weeks inflation data due out on Wednesday and Thursday. We also have the Fed chairman in front of Congress tomorrow and the next day. Plus the ongoing saga of what comes next out of the White House. Sticking with the techncials for the S&P there isn't really any solid signal one way or the other here. I do think that we'll be moving higher though but no SPY trades for now. Gold took off to the upside as the futures gained $47. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU climbed 4 1/3 and GDX was up 1 1/8. Volume was good to the upside. GDX remains short term overbought and extended to the upside. The problem here is that during extended rallies this condition lasts for quite a while as we are seeing now. Trying to pick the top is a tough game to play. That said I would still like to try the GDX February puts at some point but it isn't the best idea going forward. However GDX is so far from its 50 day moving average that the upside from here has got to be limited in the near term. I could be wrong. Might place an order for the GDX puts overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is back below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The short term indicators are still oversold and the Bollinger bands continue to contract. I'm not sure what's next for the VIX. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

The employment data came out mixed and after an initial pop to the upside stocks sold off for the rest of the session. The Dow fell 444 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall again. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. The short term down trend line in the S&P 500 that I expected to be broken to the upside held for now. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back down. I'm not sure what is next here for the S&P as there is no clear technical signal for a trade. A couple of weeks left in the February option cycle, less one day for a holiday. I will have to remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options here for now. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on about average volume. I did place another order for the GDX February puts but it wasn't filled. I canceled it so it would not sit around over the weekend. I still like this idea as the short term indicators for GDX have turned lower although still short term overbought. The gold shares did follow the overall market today but not drastically. We'll see how things open on Monday morning and go from there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which fits the down market. Now above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. The short term indicators for the VIX are trying to turn back up. The Bollinger bands here are contracting. I'm not exactly sure what the VIX wants to do here. Sometimes it's tough to be patient but I'd like to limit my trades to the best set ups possible. My feel for what is going on here isn't all that clear. I'll be going over all the charts this weekend to try and sort things out. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A mixed bag as we wait for tomorrows employment data. The Dow fell 125 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues higher. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 sported gains on the session with the NASDAQ leading the way. The short term indicators for the S&P have now turned back up and it appears that we are on the way to new all time highs. The S&P is right up against a short term resistance down trend line of a couple weeks. My guess is that we'll break through there tomorrow. Looks like it is too late for the SPY February calls. Gold was off a dozen on the futures. The US dollar finised off a bit as did interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. GDX remains short term overbought and extended in that direction. I did place an order for the GDX February puts overnight and it wasn't filled. I am leaving the order out there but may change my mind tonight. GDX has been overbought for so long it is hard to go the other way here. But we are getting a signal so we'll see what happens. Markets do tend to stay overbought longer than you think they can but it has been 4 weeks already for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. It is short term oversold but not at extremes. I'd expect the VIX to move lower tomorrow if the S&P climbs above the short term resistance. It will be up to the reaction to the employment numbers most likely. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how the weeks trading ends tomorrow.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 317 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving back up. The Dow led the way today. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn back up. I still like the SPY February calls here but we do not have a technical buy signal in place. Trying to remain patient as there is still plenty of time left in the February option cycle. Waiting on the jobs data out on Friday. Gold was up five bucks today and off of its best levels on the session. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 4 points and GDX was up a point. Volume here was above average. The short term indicators for GDX remain extremely overbought. I am now considering the GDX February puts. The problem here is trying to pick the top because GDX has been overextended for such a long period of time. However this condition cannot go on forever and there are still over a couple of weeks left in the February option cycle. The other issue is that money has been pouring into gold and there is no indication that it will stop despite todays bearish looking star on the daily candlestick chart here. I'll consider what to do or not do overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved lower and is now below both the 50 and 200 moving averages. Not completely short term oversold on the indicators here so there is still room for them to go lower and stocks higher. It is another reason to be cautious about trying the GDX puts here because if the market continues higher it may pull the gold shares with it. The trading is never easy. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Back again to the upside as the Dow rose 134 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ led things higher today and that's a plus. The tariff noise took a back seat today. The S&P 500 was higher and is back above its 50 day moving average. Some of the short term indicators here are beginning to head sideways at the mid-range level. I still don't have a clear signal for a trade here but I'm once again leaning towards the calls side for the SPY options. The market has had two gap down sell offs in the past week and a half yet buyers continue to show up. We'll still have to be patient though and wait for a technical signal. Gold was up $16 to a new all time high on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU added 1 3/4 and GDX was up 1/2. Volume was pretty light. GDX has had a nice rally since the beginning of the year but remains very overbought and is due for a rest in my opinion. It does have the uncertainty of what comes next out of Trump in its favor for now. However the techncial overbought condtion for GDX on a daily basis makes trying the calls here too risky. We'll wait for some kind of pullback before thinking about trying any options here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term indicators here have turned back down implying lower volatility and higher stock prices going forward. But again, in this environment we are a sound bite away from dramatic price movement in either direction. Asia was up and Europe generally higher in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Volatility returns with tariff drama as the Dow fell 122 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. We had a huge gap lower at the open as tariffs were announced to begin. Then there was a reprieve on some of the tariffs and the market rallied back. It didn't make it all the way back but the losses were certainly cut. This is the problem with a headline driven environment. The moves can be sharp and turn on a dime. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 closed below its 50 day moving average and the short term indicators are begining to turn down. Not sure now if the SPY February calls are the way to go right now. Still waiting on some kind of valid technical signal for the next trade. Remaining patient for now. Gold bounced around and finished up twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher but off from the best levels on the day. Interest rates finished little changed. The XAU gained 2 1/4, while GDX added 5/8. Volume was average. GDX remains short term overbought and I'm not considering any trades there at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and at one point was above the 20 level. The short term indicators are moving up with room to go. Not sure what to expect next from the VIX. A roller coaster ride today for stcoks but where do we go from here? We still have earnings to contend with along with Fridays jobs report on tap this week. Plus whatever sound bite that comes out of the president. Interesting times. Asia and Europe were down on the tariff news. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

It was a one day downside reversal as stocks opened higher and closed lower to finish the month of January. The Dow fell 337 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up. Inflation data came in where expected which led to a morning rally. But then sellers took over leading to closing losses for the major indices. The Dow led the way lower which isn't the most bearish scenario. The market is waiting to see what comes out of the Trump tarriffs over the weekend. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought on some of its indicators despite todays drop. I'm still in favor of the SPY February calls but am waiting for a decent signal in order to purchase. Still three weeks to go in the February option cycle. The main problem is that we are at the mercy of the next sound bite from Trump which makes the trading harder than it has to be. Gold dipped $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 2 points and GDX slipped about 1/2. Volume was average. GDX continues to remain short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher which fits with the downside price action today. The daily candlestick chart here has lost its bullish look. Not sure where the VIX is heading next. For now we are in a wait and see mode for this weekends tarriff news. I'll be going over all the charts in the next two days as usual. Europe and Asia were slightly higher to end the week. Monday morning should be interesting as we begin a new trading month. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Heading higher as the Dow gained 168 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The S&P 500 was the leader today. It remains short term overbought as we await the inflation data out tomorrow. End of the month tomorrow as well. The market has the feel of wanting to go higher as it has shrugged off the losses on Monday. However we are in a headline driven environment at the moment so anything could sway things in either direction. Also waiting on whether or not Trump starts to impose tarriffs on February 1st as promised. I'm still a fan of the SPY February calls at some point but we may have missed it. Gold rallied today as the futures climbed $56 to close at a new all time high. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates had a slight decline. The XAU was up 6 points and GDX added 1 1/2. Volume was good to the upside. I missed this move higher in GDX but it is too late to try the calls now. Short term overbought for an extended period of time so I won't be chasing it. I'll try and wait for GDX to reach short term oversold before attempting the calls here again. Or perhaps wait for GDX to return to its short term up trend line at around the 38 level. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is back below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. The short term indicators here are turning down in oversold territory. I still think that the VIX is heading lower. Both Europe and what was open in Asia finished higher. We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

Hanging around with a negative bias today as the Dow lost 136 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The Fed didn't move interst rates as expected and there were no surprises during the speech. The NASDAQ was the leader moving lower but the losses were not sharp. Waiting on more earnings and the inflation data out Friday. The S&P 500 remains in short term overbought territory with some of the indicators beginning to track sideways. I'm still waiting for a decent signal one way or the other but leaning on the call side. Option premiums remain elevated with plenty of time left in the February option cycle. The market also is waiting on the threat of US tarriffs scheduled for February 1st. We'll continue to watch and wait for now. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX rose 1/8. Volume remains light for the gold shares. GDX is still short term overbought as it has been for at least a couple of weeks. This won't last forever. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up slightly today. The daily candlestick chart here still looks like it wants to go lower but I'm not sure what's next for the VIX. Europe and what was open in Asia were up for the most part. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Back to the upside for the overall market and the Dow rose 136 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation idex is moving up. We got another signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within two days and we got that move today. The NASDAQ climbed back 2%. Was yesterday just a one day wonder for the NASDAQ? We'll see as we move forward. The fact that we didn't see any downside follow through is a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and some of the indicators have turned back up. We've got to get through the Fed tomorrow and perhaps that will be a non-event for a change. Inflation data due on the last day of the month. The market also has to navigate the possibility of Trumps tariffs over the weekend if that comes to pass. Technically we don't have a signal at the moment so patience is required for now. I'm still in favor of the SPY February calls at some point. Gold was up $32 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rtes finished flat. The XAU was up 1 1/8 and GDX rose 1/3. Volume was light. GDX remains short term overbought. I'd expect some movement in the gold shares tomorrow in reaction to whatever the Fed decides to do or say. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down today and the short term indicators have rolled back over. Can't say for sure where this indicator is heading next but the daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go lower. That would bode well for stocks. Most of the Asian markets will be on holiday for the rest of this week. What was open finished mixed. Europe was generally higher. We'll see how the market reacts to the Fed announcement tomorrow.

A huge gap lower for most of the major stock indices but not the Dow as it gained 289 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. Tech stocks got crushed as the NASDAQ fell 3%. The S&P 500 dipped around 1 1/2% on a big week for earnings and economic data. We've got the Fed and inflation data later on in the week. The short term indicators for the S&P have rolled over with room to go lower. Not exactly sure what we'll see next but I still like the idea of the SPY February calls. I'll be looking to purchase some this week if we see some more weakness. Gold dropped $36 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were lower. The XAU lost 3 1/8, while GDX slipped 5/8. Volume was light. The gold shares did come off of their worst levels on the session. GDX remain short term overbought so we will wait for an oversold reading here before thinking about the calls again. That's the theory for now anyway. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped up above the 20 level but then fell back to close below there. It was still 3 points higher on the day which fits with the overall market decline. The short term indicators here have turned back up with room to go. There is a big gap on he VIX daily chart now as well. I'm still in the camp of waiting for the Fed to get out of the way before taking on the next trade. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

A little selling today to close out the week as the Dow fell 140 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Nothing dramatic to the downside but the NASDAQ was the underperformer. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two sessions. We'll see if that pans out on Monday. The technical picture for the S&P 500 hasn't changed. Still short term overbought and staying that way. We'll get the Fed and some inflation data next week so there will be reasons for market movement. I'm still in the camp for the SPY February calls so hopefully we'll see some pullback to get the chance at that idea. Not sure that the technical indicators will get all the way back to oversold though. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The US dollar was down and interest rates wre slightly lower. The XAU was up almost 2 points and GDX rose 3/8. Volume was light. Still short term overbought on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with a down market. Short term oversold and staying there. Not sure what's coming up next here for the VIX. We've been in a two week rally mode for stocks and I don't think that its over anytime soon. The technicals put in a decent bottom and it is just a matter of how high things will go here in my view. The extra week in the February option cycle has kept the premiums high. There is no rush to put the next trade on and we may have already missed it if the market continues to go straight up. Patience for now as we'll most likely let the Fed get out of the way before doing anything. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. Asia and Europe finished out the week mixed. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Up, up and away we go as the Dow gained 408 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The Dow again led the way here. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high. The other major indices should get there too. The S&P is overbought and staying that way. Looks like I missed out on the SPY February calls but we'll see. Gold was off $8 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were mixed. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. GDX remains in overbought territory. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was off slightly. Still short term oversold on the indicators here. The VIX can stay oversold for extended periods of time and this may be one of those times. Todays post is short as I need to take a rest. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Moving up as the Dow rose 131 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative though so perhaps the market is due for a rest. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ led the way again and that's a plus. The S&P 500 flirted with closing at a new all time high but just missed. The short term indicators here are mostly overbought. I still like the idea of the SPY February calls but we'll have to see some kind of selling in order to get a chance to purchase them. Plenty of time left in the February option cycle. You could argue that the best time to get the calls has passed and I can't really say that is wrong. But we'll wait for a technical signal before doing anything. Gold rose $7 on the futures. The US dollar was a little higher along with interest rates. The XAU dipped 3/4 and GDX was barely lower. Volume was light. GDX remains short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat for the session. Still short term oversold here. The Bollinger bands on the VIX are starting to converge and we'll keep an eye on that. The VIX remains below the 50 and 200 day moving averages. As earnings continue to be reported they will get stocks moving as will the latest headline out of the White House. That is the environmment at the moment. I'll probably wait until after the Fed next week to take a position. I'm still in the calls camp going forward. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The rally has legs as the Dow climbed 538 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The Dow continues to lead the way. The S&P 500 had a decent gain with some of its short term indicators in overbought territory. The NASDAQ lagged. I'm still looking at the SPY February calls for the next trade but would like to see a pullback in order to purchase. May not happen at this rate. Looking for new all time highs for the S&P as we move forward. Gold was up seven bucks on the futures. The US dollar had a big drop and interest rates dipped. The XAU gained 3 1/8 and GDX was up 7/8. Volume was a bit above average. GDX has broken through the down trend line that was in effect and is now short term overbought. It can stay overbought during rallies. GDX is now above both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Might try the February calls here if we get a snap back to the line just broken. Not completely sold on that idea though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower which fits an up market. Short term oversold here. Not sure what's next for the VIX but it can remain oversold for a while at times. Stocks are in rally mode. I believe that calls are the way to go here. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher in overnight trade. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

More buying to finish off the week as the Dow rose 334 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Once again the NASDAQ led the way higher and htat's a plus. The S&P 500 broke above the resistance of its short term down trend line. The short term indicators here are moving higher. I'm still looking for new all time highs for the S&P in the coming weeks. I'm looking at the SPY February calls but the premiums are pricey. Declines can be purchased in my view going forward. We will look to get some calls on weakness if we see any. Gold was off a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up a buck and GDX rose 1/8. Volume was light. GDX is short term overbought on some of the indicators. It is trying to get through both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. GDX now has a short term up trend line in place that has held so far. It has also broken through the down trend line on the weekly chart and the indicators here have turned back up. Perhaps it is time to take a closer look at the calls here. Or we can continue to wait for GDX to return to the longer term up trend line at 30. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is still hanging around both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term oversold here but not completely. Quite a comeback for the stock market this week. The weekly candlestick charts for the major indices now look bullish. Only a complete reversal to the downside whould change things next week. I don't see that happening. Hopefully we'll get an opportunity to purchase some SPY calls. A long weekend here in the US and I'll have plenty of time to go over all the charts. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Treading water today with the exception of the NASDAQ as the Dow fell 68 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is now moving higher. Sideways trading action this Thursday ahead of option expiration. It's also before a long holiday weekend in the US as the markets will be closed on Monday. The NASDAQ fell the most today and that is not a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a small loss as it is right up against the longer term down trend line on a daily basis. The short term indicators here are at mid-range. My guess is that we'll get through that line in short order but maybe not tomorrow. Sometime next week at the latest or else my prognosis here is wrong. I also believe we are in the beginning of a multi-week rally for the S&P. Gold was up $30 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. That is two days in a row now that gold had good moves higher and the gold shares basically did nothing. Not a good sign for the gold share bulls. I'm on the sidelines with regards to trading the GDX options for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today as it stalls on both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. No clear signal from the short term indicators here. The game plan for now is to let expiration Friday pass and head into the February option cycle which has an extra week on it. So premiums will be high. I'll be looking at the SPY calls again as I think that we are heading to new all time highs for the S&P. I could be wrong. Europe and Asia finished higher. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was a blast off from the start as the inflation data was just a touch soft and the Dow climbed 703 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up. It should continue higher from here as the zero line area has held for now. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus for the bulls. We had a big gap the open and continued on from there. The S&P 500 has made it back to its 50 day moving average and the short term indicators are now moving up. It is almost back to the longer term down trend line that is in place. We will probably get through there soon and on to new all time highs in my opinion. I sold the SPY January calls that I had for a 75% profit. Could have done even better than that but I took the gift that the market gave me. This trade had a bad entry and a not so good exit and still somehow came out on top. Gold was up $35 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU rose 3/4 and GDX added 3/8. Volume was light. GDX is now barely above the down trend line that's been in place since last October. It is also short term overbought on some of the indicators. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was sharply lower and the short term indicators are moving down. The VIX has made it back down to its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The VIX seems to be implying that the rally will continue. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Bouncing around today to another mixed bag finish but the Dow gained 221 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. The NASDAQ was lower again and the S&P 500 had another slight gain. A lot will hinge on tomorrrows inflation report in my view. If it comes in strong things will get ugly. If it comes in weak we could see a nice up move as short covering will be required. Of course I'm hoping for the latter as I'm still holding on to the SPY January calls at a loss. We did manage to break the shortest down trend line in the S&P today but could not get any traction beyond that. The short term indicators for the S&P remain oversold but not completely so. We'll see what happens tomorrow morning and take it from there. Gold rose $13 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remained flat. The XAU was up 3 3/4, while GDX climbed 7/8. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX turned back up. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The shorter term trading usually requires more attention than a longer term idea. The VIX was lower today but some of the short term indicators are still pointing up. Not sure what to expect next here as the VIX is above both its 50 and 200 day moving averages but below the 20 level. Asia was higher with the exception of Japan and Europe up as well except for the FTSE. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and try to manage whatever tomorrow brings.

A mixed Monday to begin the week as the Dow was higher and the NASDAQ lower. The most watched index gained 358 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving lower. We had one day upside reversals in some of the major averages today as the market gapped down at the open. The S&P 500 was one of the indexes that had an upside reversal. This is important for the bulls because the S&P is bouncing off of its longer term up trend line that goes back to 2023. If the S&P can hang in here I believe that we'll be moving higher medium term. We'll probably know by Wednesday when the inflation data comes in. The short term indicators for the S&P remain oversold. My SPY January calls are still losers with only four days to go. They are so far out of the money that it will take some strong gains to perhaps make it back to break even. Another downside day will wipe them out. At this point I'll most likely hold them until the CPI on Wednesday. Gold dropped $35 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU lost almost 3 points and GDX was down 5/8. Volume was light. Some of the short term indicators for GDX have rolled over while others have simply stalled. The down trend line from last October remains in place on GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished lower today after rising above the 20 level. The short term indicators here are beginning to head sideways with some at the mid-range level. So the VIX could go either way from here. My hope would be that the VIX heads lower from here as the overall market rises. However hope is not a trading strategy. My timing on getting the SPY January calls was not good. The summation index is dancing around the zero line so there is still a chance of a major drop. It is options expiration week so anything goes. Europe and Asia opened the week lower. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

The jobs report came in better than expected but good news was bad news for the stock market as the Dow lost 696 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving back down. Most of the major stock indices lost at least 1 1/2% on the session. The S&P 500 lost over ninety points and the short term indicators are moving lower. Not yet completely oversold on the S&P. My idea for the SPY january calls seems to be a mistake. However I did purchase some of them today despite the decline. This looks like an ill timed trade as it is showing a loss with only five days left in the January option cycle. The S&P 500 now lies on its up trend line that began back in October of 2023. Whether or not it holds on here will determine the outcome of this SPY trade. It appears as if the market is going to continue lower though as the summation index is falling below the zero line. I can't say that I wasn't warned. Gold was up $25 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on about average volume. Both finished well off of their best levels on the day. GDX met resistance at the short term down trend line and 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are beginning to stall. Gold up and the gold shares not following is not a plus for the gold share bulls. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as I probably should have just stayed on the sidelines with the current market environment. The signal to attempt the SPY calls here was not as strong as the most recent one that we saw last week. I'll be lucky to get out of this trade with a small loss and that may not even be possible. The VIX jumped today and the short term indicators are now moving up with plenty of room to go higher. This would be another reason to remain bearish heading into next week. Still below the 20 level but just about ready to head north of there with a repeat of todays price action. I'll be going over all the charts this weekend to get ready for Monday morning. Asia and Europe closed lower to finish the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Just hanging around today as the Dow rose 106 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still in a sideways trend. The Dow was the outperformer today. The NASDAQ had a small loss and the S&P 500 a small gain. The short term indicators for the S&P are now mid-range. I put in a few orders for the SPY January calls today trying to get the price that I wanted. None were filled. If we get early selling on Friday I might take a look at this idea again. Or it could be too late. The market is closed tomorrow ahead of the jobs report and there are only six days left in the January option cycle. So the risk of any option trade here is high. Might have to remain on the sidelines. Gold was up $14 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU climbed 3 1/2, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was a bit above average. GDX is getting close to the down trend line that is in effect at 36.5. It also is nearing both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Not yet short term overbought on GDX so perhaps it will make it to that down trend line. Mentally I'm feeling like I want to take on the SPY call trade but the signal isn't as strong as I'd like it. I also do not want to make a trade just to do it. I can always just wait until the February cycle. It's something to think about on Thursday. The VIX was just a bit lower today. The short term indicator picture here is mixed with an oversold bias. The VIX is above both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The daily candlestick chart here looks like that it wants to go lower which would be a boost for stocks. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll take a break tomorrow and get ready for Friday morning.

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 178 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. It was a one day downside reversal for stocks as we had a gap higher at the open and then sold off for the rest of the day. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 closed below its 50 day moving average. Some of the short term indicators here have turned back down from the mid-range level. It puts our bullish bias here in question. We did want to see some selling in order to purchase the SPY January calls and we certainly got that today. I'm still wary of the summation index and the zero line but I do think that it will hold. I will probably place an overnight order for the SPY calls unless the futures sell off hard tonight. We'll see. Gold was up $18 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 7/8 and GDX rose 1/2. Volume was on the light side. The gold shares finished off of their best levels on the day. The short term indicators for GDX are around mid-range. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits a down market. Most of teh short term indicators here remain in the oversold area. The VIX remains below the 20 level but if it was to start to rise from here it would spell trouble for stocks. So we are in a tough trading environment right now. Trading on Wednesday followed by a day off followed by the employment report. I suppose remaining on the sidelines is a possibity as well. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A positive start to the week for the overall market but not the Dow as it fell 25 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to turn back up. We had a big gap higher to get things going but then eventually sold off for the rest of the day. Even so the NASDAQ led the way with a gain of over 1%. The S&P 500 did cut its gain in more than half for the session. The short term indicators here are still moving up. It looked like we missed our chance for the SPY January calls but the S&P was turned back by its short term down trend line of resistance at around the 6000 level. I suspect that we'll get through that area at some point before option expiration. So if we continue lower in the near term that might give us the opportunity to purchase some SPY January calls. That is the game plan at the moment. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU dipped 1 1/3, while GDX was off 3/8. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to roll over. No GDX trades for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower but not by much. Still hanging around the 200 day moving average here. The short term indicators on the VIX are beginning to track sideways. Not sure what's next here but I would not be surprised if the VIX continues lower. One less trading day this week and the jobs report looms on Friday. Running out of time in the January option cycle but if things line up I'll be trying the SPY calls. Asia was mixed with big losses in Japan and India. Europe was higher. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Buying was the order of the day as the Dow gained 339 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around and I believe that it will be successful. The NASDAQ led the way up and that is a plus. The S&P 500 rose 1 1/4%. The short term indicators here have turned back up for the most part. Declines can now be bought in my opinion. I think that the zero line will hold here on the summation index. I did place an order overnight for the SPY January calls but it wasn't filled. I will try again next week if we see some selling. There is one less day in the January option cycle now as the markets will be closed next Thursday in mourning of former president Jimmy Carter. So the timing of any trade will be even more critial than usual. But it looks like a double bottom on the S&P daily chart for now. Gold was off $17 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was light. No GDX trades in mind for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. The short term indicators on the VIX are turning lower. The VIX is back to its 200 day moving average. I'm guessing that the VIX will continue to decline and htat stocks will move higher. I could be wrong. We didn't get the Santa Claus rally this year and that is a cause for concern in the near term. Beyond that however it doesn't have a good forecasting record. Years ending in the number 5 usually are good for the stock market but that didn't happen in 2015. There are always exceptions to any rule. For now we are sticking with the idea of a SPY January call trade to be made at some point next week. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Certainly an interesting day to begin the new year as the Dow fell 151 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The day began with a rally that then faded. Another rally was attempted and then there was a sharp drop only to try and meander back to positive territory but we didn't make it. The Dow led the way lower which isn't the worst scenario. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 had small losses. The short term indicators for the S&P are oversold but not completely. They may be trying to turn around here. One of our short term indicators is flashing a buy signal. I'm still considering the SPY January calls for a short term trade here but did not have the guts to try it today. The proximity of the summation index to the zero line is a factor. However I might have the courage to try that idea tomorrow. We'll see. Gold was up $30 on the futures most likely as a reaction to the terror attack in the US. The US dollar was higher as well and interest rates finished flat. The gold shares found a bid as the XAU climbed 5 3/4 and GDX was up 1 3/8. Volume was a bit above average. It was the best day for GDX in a while and its short term indicators are now moving up. There is a down trend line in place here that comes in at around the 37 level. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher but off from its best levels on the day. The short term indicators for the VIX are trending sideways. It is above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. I can make a case for the VIX moving lower from here but it is not cast in stone. I'll take another look at things tonight and then decide if I want to try the SPY calls. Many of the foreign markets remained closed overnight but those that were open were weaker in general. We'll close out the week tomorrow.