Mixed would be a good way to describe todays price action but the Dow soared and set a new all time high. The most watched index gained 646 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading higher. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high while the NASDAQ posted a loss. We would rather see the over the counter market lead the way here but once again we cannot argue with price. The S&P remains short term overbought. We now favor getting the SPY December calls on weakness despite the overbought condition. Our original prognosis of new all time highs for the S&P is at hand. Once we get through there the overhead resistance will be gone. Might already be too late if we simply continue higher from here. Gold jumped $78 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU climbed 14 3/4, while GDX added 3 points. Volume was good to the upside as GDX closed at a new 52 week high. My thesis of a potential double top on the GDX daily chart has been negated. Short term overbought there on the indicators but not completely so. Looks like another trade missed in the GDX options again for us. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed below 15. Short term oversold there still and staying that way. The VIX seems to be saying that the party will go on. Waiting on next weeks economic data in addition to options expiration. Still looking for a signal to take on the next trade. Perhaps next week. Europe was higher and Asia was lower with the exception of India. We'll see what Friday has to offer.

The Fed lowered rates as expected and the market climbed higher as the Dow gained 497 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to moving up. The Dow was by far the leader today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. But we can't argue with price and today was good for the bulls. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 had smaller gains relative to the Dow. I was in the camp that the Fed would be on hold today and that was incorrect. However we are still looking for new all time highs in the S&P 500 in the coming days. It is knocking on the door. The short term indicators for the S&P remain overbought but can stay that way during rallies. It looks like the S&P wants to break out to the upside from the sideways consolidation of the past couple weeks. Gold was up $26 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 4 1/2, while GDX added 1 1/4 on average volume. The short term indicators on GDX are moving higher and are not yet overbought. GDX looks poised to hit a new 52 week high. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. The short term indicators here remain oversold. We've got the Fed out of the way and now will be waiting on economic data due out next week. I'm waiting on a clear technical signal for the next trade but at the rate things are going that won't happen before option expiration next week. Running out of time in the December cycle. Not easy being patient sometimes. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll see if we get some upside follow through for stocks tomorrow.

Another day of hanging around as the Dow fell 179 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still barely in an upwards trend. It was a mixed bag as the NASDAQ posted a small gain and the S&P 500 had a slight loss. Just waiting on the Fed and that should get things going tomorrow. The S&P remains short term overbought. I did place an order for the SPY December puts but it wasn't filled and I canceled it towards the close. The time has probably run out on this idea which is fine. I do still think that we'll be hitting new all time highs for the S&P 500 before option expiration next week. I could be wrong. Gold was up twenty bucks today. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates creeped up for the most part. The XAU bounced back 11 points and GDX was up 2 3/4. Volume was a little shy of average. The short term indicators have turned back up for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up slightly today. It remains short term oversold. I'm not sure where the VIX is heading next. I'm not convinced that the Fed will be lowering rates tomorrow and that would spell trouble for the stock market. We do not have a solid technical signal now one way or the other so it's the sidelines for now. Hopefully we'll get a trade in for the December option cycle. Asia was generally lower and Europe mixed overnight. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

Lower to start the week off as the Dow fell 215 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving higher but beginning to slow down. Waiting on the Fed is the theme at the moment. The Dow was the downside leader and that's not the worst thing. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned down but remain in overbought territory. It looks like we won't get the chance to try the SPY December puts as the decline may already have begun. Might have to switch over to the calls if the opportunity presents itself. Gold was lower by twenty bucks today on the futures. The US dollar was slighly higher and interest rates continued to rise. The XAU was down about 7 1/2, while GDX shed 1 7/8. Volume was a bit below average. The short term indicators on GDX are heading down with room to go. If the gold shares are rolling over here it could get ugly as a potential double top on the daily chart has a lot of room to fall. Hasn't happened yet and it may not but it is something to keep an eye on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped up today which fits a down market. The short term indicators here have turned up but remain oversold. Not sure if this is the beginning of something higher for the VIX or just a one day bump. I am still in the camp of new all time highs for stocks before option expiration but with a possible short term decline first. I'm not sold on the consensus that the Fed will be cutting rates again in a couple days. We'll see. Asia and Europe were mixed to begin the week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

We were hoping to get some clarity on the near term direction today but we only got more of the same drift higher. The Dow gained 104 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving up. After a brief decent rally in the early going, the market simply went lower to sideways for the rest of the session. The NASDAQ was the leader but the gains were small. The S&P 500 continues to be short term overbought. It is getting closer to new all time highs but not there yet. Gold slipped $13 today on the futures. The US dollar finished unchanged and interest rates were higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are moving sideways. Still in a position where they could go either way. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX continued lower and that bodes well for stocks. Short term oversold and staying that way. That said it isn't a condition that will last forever. Next week is all about the Fed, with another rate cut expected. I'm not exactly sure about that. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. At this point I am inclined to try the SPY December puts ahead of the Fed for our next trade. This would be a short term idea with only two weeks left in the December option cycle. However I'll be looking at things for the next couple of days to decide if this trade is worth the risk. Asia was higher with the exception of Japan and Europe ended mixed. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was really just a day of hanging around as the Dow slid 32 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues higher. It was a sideways affair for the major stock indices with the NASDAQ having the best of the slight gains that we saw besides the Russell 2000. The S&P had a small gain and remains short term overbought. Inflation data tomorrow and the market movement will tell us a lot. If we rally then all signs are go for new all time highs in the coming days. If we fall then that scenario would be put into question. I did not purchase any options ahead of the inflation data though I was leaning towards the SPY December puts. I could make a case for trying them but decided to wait until perhaps early next week. Or maybe I'll give them a try tomorrow. Gold rose $6 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX added 1/3 but volume was very light. The short term indicators for GDX are stalling and appear to be able to go either way from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and remains short term oversold. If the VIX continues down tomorrow we'll have about all we need to be confident about new all time highs coming for the S&P 500. Hasn't happened yet. The point is tomorrow will be key. Asia and Europe were generally higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 408 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. The Dow was by far the leader today. The S&P 500 posted another gain but things are not moving at a robust pace. It closed at the top of the sideways channel that it has been stuck in for a week. The S&P did get above 6850 today but fell back in the final hour. Remaining short term overbought here. I'll have to decide tomorrow whether or not to try the SPY December puts ahead of the inflation data due on Friday. I may just stay on the sidelines as I still believe that we are heading to new all time highs for the S&P. Gold was up $17 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was off 1 1/8 and GDX dipped 1/2. Volume was light. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are beginning to move sideways. Still on the sidelines with respect to any trade in the GDX options for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with an up market. Still short term oversold and remaining that way here which is the normal course of action during rallies. The VIX is hanging around its previous low readings form the end of November. A break below them will continue the rally in stocks. I'll have to look things over tonight and decide what to do from there. Europe and Asia remained mixed in last nights trade. I'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 185 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way and that is a plus for the bulls. We've been going sideways for a few days now at roughly between 6800 and 6850 on the S&P 500. Whichever way it breaks will give us the near term trend. The S&P remains short term overbought. Gold was off $32 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed again along with interest rates. The XAU lost 5 3/8, while GDX dropped 1 1/3. Volume was a bit above average. GDX is still short term overbought but the indicators have rolled over. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. If we can keep the VIX moving sideways before Friday we might try the SPY December puts. However at the moment we are lacking any definitive, clear technical signal when it comes to the SPY index. Trying to remain patient for now. Asia and Europe were mixed overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

We had some selling to begin the month of December as the Dow fell 427 points on good volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. The Dow led the way lower and that isn't the most negative scenario. I'm still in the camp that we are heading to new all time highs soon but could change my mind. The S&P 500 was lower and some of its short term indicators are still overbought. I will have to see how the rest of the week shapes up before attempting the next trade in the SPY options. Gold was up $16 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates were higher. The XAU ended the day flat and GDX shed 3/8. Volume was average. GDX remains short term overobught and is on the cusp of hitting a new 52 week high. Still no gold share trades that stand out for me right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today which fits a down market. It remains short term oversold. If the VIX hangs around where it is now for the rest of the week, then I might consider trying the SPY December puts ahead of Fridays inflation numbers. However I do not think that is the most likely scenario. We will try and let the market tell us where it is going. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to begin the week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A short and quiet trading day as the Dow gained 289 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. It was a great week to be long the market. The S&P 500 has made it above its short term down trend line albeit on light volume. The short term indicators are not yet completely overbought. We are getting a sell signal from one of our indicators but my thinking is that we're heading for new all time highs. I'll consider things over the weekend. Gold was up $44 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates a bit higher. The XAU was up 7 3/4, while GDX added 1 3/8. Volume was light. GDX is short term overbought on some of its indicators. It looks poised to hit a new 52 week high. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed below 16.5. It is now short term oversold but can stay that way during rallies like the one we are currently in. We'll look over the charts this weekend but it appears that we are in rally mode until further notice. Asia was mixed and Europe a bit higher to close out the week overseas. It's a half day Friday during a long holiday weekend and time for a break.

Keep on keeping on as the rally continued today. The Dow gained 314 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The holiday week positive bias is in full swing. The S&P 500 made it up to its short term down trend line which is where it lies now. What happens here will be key but I've got to say that it looks like we are simply moving on to new all time highs in the coming days. The short term indicators for the S&P are moving up and are not yet overbought. The only thing that would change our minds would be a reversal from here. Gold was up $18 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU zoomed up 15 points, while GDX climbed 3 3/4. Volume was good as GDX broke above its short term down trend line. GDX is getting to short term overbought but not completely there yet. The gold shares are far outperforming gold itself here and that is bullish for them. It looks like the gold shares had their correction and are now ready to hit new all time highs. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed below its short term up trend line. It also made it through its 50 day moving average. Some of its indicators are oversold but not all. The longer term up trend line on the VIX lies at 16.5. If it gets below that level this rally in stocks will last longer than you think. If it doesn't then there may be a chance to try the SPY December puts at some point. Thanksgiving in the US tomorrow followed by a half day on Friday with some closures. So most of the major players here are gone until next week. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. Enjoy the holiday.

Today the Dow led things higher as the most watched index gained 664 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. Ths summation index has now turned back up. We'll see if it can keep it going. The S&P 500 had another good day and is approaching its short term down trend line that comes in a bit above 6800. What happens there will tell us what we need to know. A break above will continue the rally and it will be on to test the all time high. If it can't get through there, then we'll see some more selling. The short term indicators for the S&P are still moving up with room to go. I'm inclined to try the SPY Decmeber puts if it stalls at the down trend line but only for the short term. Gold was up $35 on the futures. The US dollar dropped along with interest rates. The XAU rose a couple points and GDX dipped 1/8. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to stall. GDX is up against its short term down trend line. No gold share trades in mind at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an up market. It is now below the 20 level and at its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are moving down and are not yet oversold. A break below the 50 day moving average would be bullish for stocks. The VIX is close to its short term up trend line and if it could get through it that would be another positive for the market. One more trading day before a long weekend for most in the US. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

A big move up for the overall market and the Dow managed a gain of 202 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ led the way higher with a gain of over 2 1/2%. That is a plus. It appears that the positive holiday week bias is in effect but we'll see how the rest of the week plays out. The S&P 500 was up over 100 points. The short term indicators here have turned up with room to go. The S&P has made it back to the 50 day moving average. Not sure if the recent decline is over but we're leaning that way. Gold was up $51 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed again and interest rates dipped. The XAU climbed 15 2/3 and GDX jumped 4 1/3. Volume was slightly above average. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up with room to go. GDX also has held its 50 day moving average. It is right up against its short term down trend line. A break there would be positive. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX has another big drop today. The short term indicators here are moving lower. The VIX is still above the 20 level though. My guess is that it will continue lower and stocks higher for the rest of the week. Some economic data will finally be released tomorrow but I'm not sure what the effects will be. Europe finished mixed and Asia was generally higher to start the week. We'll see if we get some more upside follow through tomorrow.

Some relief from the selling today as the Dow gained 493 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. It is heading towards the zero line which would lead to the market falling apart. Not there yet but we have to be aware of it. I don't think that we'll break down here but I could be wrong. The Dow was the leader to the upside today. I would think that more near term upside is upon us as the holiday week coming is usually positive. But who knows? The short term indicators for the S&P remain oversold. On the weekly chart they are heading lower and getting to mid-range. Holding above the 20 week moving average for now as price bounced off that this week. A breakdown on the weekly chart could take us to around 6200 which be be a 10% drop from the recent highs. However at this point we'll see how things go next week before making any decisions. Gold was off three bucks today on the futures. The US dollar finished flat again and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 2 1/3, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was a bit above average. The short term indicators for GDX are back to stalling at the mid-range level. We are still waiting before putting on any trades there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits todays price action. The short term indicators are heading down but are still in overbought territory. The VIX remains above 20 so the volatility probably isn't over just yet. My guess is that the VIX will head lower next week as we see some buying but perhaps this year the holiday week won't conform with the usual probability. Rolling into the December option cycle so premiums will be high. The recent volatility adds to that as well. I'll be going over all the charts this weekend as usual. Asia finished lower and Europe mixed to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Today we witnessed a dramatic one day downside reversal as stock indices had a huge gap up at the open only to turn around and close with big losses. The Dow fell 386 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. We saw the rally out of nowhere that we were looking for but were not able to take advantage of it. Things were simply moving too fast for our liking and there was only a couple of days left in the November option cycle. Opportunity lost you might say and you are not wrong. However I am more of a position trader as my short term trades usually end up in defeat. The NASDAQ led the way lower despite a good earnings report from NVDA which produced the early market buying. The S&P 500 was up over 125 points early on only to roll over and finish at the lows for the session down over 100. That is some kind of crazy volatility. The short term indicators for the S&P are oversold and the daily candlestick chart looks bearish. Near term support should kick in around 6500 but there are no guarantees. Something is going on here but we ceratinly don't know what. The market holds the ultimate truth. Gold lost $8 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates dipped. The XAU slid 15 points, while GDX lost 3 1/3. Volume was heavy to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX are back to heading lower and it closed below the 50 day moving average again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and that is not a surprise. The short term indicators are overbought and staying that way for now. As long as the VIX remains above the 20 level it will be a rocky road for stocks. Not sure how long this lasts. Option expiration Friday tomorrow which could be crazy but I can't see it being as volatile as today. But markets go where they want. Asia and Europe finished higher overnight as they were trading off of the NVDA earnings. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Volatility is in charge for now as the Dow gained 47 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues down. We were up and down more than once today as the market tries to figure out its next move. After the bell NVDA earnings should get things going overnight. Employment data due out tomorrow morning. I'm still thinking about perhaps trying the SPY puts if we see a big rally tomorrow but the more prudent course of action would be to sit things out with only 2 days left in the November option cycle. The NASDAQ led things higher today but it wasn't exactly what you'd call a rally. More of just hanging around until tomorrow. The S&P 500 posted a small gain. The short term indicators for the S&P remain oversold. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished generally flat. The XAU gained 3 7/8 and GDX was up 3/4 again. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX ended a bit lower today which fits with todays market price movement. The short term indicators here are still overbought. Not sure what's next for the VIX. We'll see how things go early tomorrow morning to decide if a trade in the SPY options is worth the risk. Europe was lower and Asia mixed overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Continuing to sink as the Dow fell 498 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive though. The summation index is moving down. The market dropped for the first hour and a half, attempted to make a comeback and then dropped again in the final hour. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 is now solidly below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are oversold but not completely so. 3 days left in the November option cycle. I should remain on the sidelines as the short term trades are not usually my best efforts. But we'll see. NVDA earnings after the bell tomorrow followed by some employment data on Thursday. Perhaps if we get some kind of short term rally we can try the SPY puts into the close on Friday. But it would be pretty risky. Gold was off $3 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU was up 3 3/8, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was a bit above average. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to stall. Not trades in mind for the GDX options at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped up again today and remains above the 20 level. It has reached short term overbought. However as long as it remains above 20, volatility is the rule. If we somehow see a big rally out of nowhere in the next couple of sessions, that could give us the opportunity to buy some SPY November puts to hold into the close on Friday. But the timing in and out would have to be precise and that is extremely hard to do with so little time left in the November cycle. Asia and Europe got whacked last night as we are seeing a worldwide exit from stocks. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Monday brought out sellers as the Dow fell 557 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The Dow was the leader heading lower as all the major averages suffered losses. It is options expiration week and the last full week before Thanksgiving. So whatever needs to be done by the main players will take place this week. We will also start to get some economic data now that the US government is back in business. NVDA earnings after the bell on Wednesday should provide reasons for movement as well. On the technical front the S&P 500 closed below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are moving lower and are not yet oversold. So the path of least resistance appears to be lower. With the summation index heading down it looks like some sustained selling is at hand. That said, I was looking at the SPY November calls today but did not make a purchase. I may consider them again tomorrow but the prudent course of action is probably to remain on the sidelines. We almost have a short term buy signal but not quite there yet. Also purchasing calls here flys in the face of the techncial evidence heading lower. Gold fell fifty bucks today. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were a touch lower. The XAU was off almost 5 points and GDX lost about 1 1/4. Volume was a bit above average. The short term indicators for GDX are moving down with plenty of room to go. GDX is once again trying to hold on to the 50 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and closed above the 20 level. The short term indicators on the VIX are almost overbought. If the VIX stays above 20 we'll see more selling and volatility. Right now that seems to be where the market is headed but we all know that things can turn on a dime in this game. Europe and Asia started the trading week on a down note with the exception of India. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Still a mixed picture as the Dow fell 309 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is turning lower. The NASDAQ posted a small gain and the S&P 500 had a slight loss. Indices opened with huge gaps lower and the NASDAQ made it all the way back to positive territory for a one day upside reversal. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are beginning to stall at the mid-range level. The S&P is once again trying to hold on to the 50 day moving average. It appears that things could go either way here but we'll look at the charts this weekend and take it from there. Gold dropped $111 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates rose. The XAU lost 2 2/3 and GDX shed 7/8. Volume was good to the downside but the gold shares held up much better than the metal itself. They also finished well up from the worst levels of the session. But we still don't have any GDX option trades in mind right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX traded up to 23 today only to fall back below the 20 level at the close. The short term indicators here are also at the mid-range level. Not sure where the VIX is going though as my latest readings of its daily candlestick chart have been off. Plenty of work to do this weekend as we head into option expiration week. Hopefully we'll get some kind of SPY option trade going next week. Europe and Asia closed lower today. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Sellers returned today and the Dow fell 797 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to a stall. The NASDAQ led the way lower and has been the weakist link lately which isn't a good sign for the bulls. It looks like my idea of new all time highs for the S&P 500 in the near term were wrong. That index got clocked today as well, down over 100 points. The short term indicators here have rolled over with room to go. We were not totally convinced that things would continue higher after bouncing off of the 50 day moving average on the S&P but it looks like we've missed the chance for the SPY November puts. If we continue lower tomorrow the weekly chart on the S&P will have a bearish look as well. Not exactly sure what is going on here but the market always know more than we do. Gold dropped $48 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU fell 8 points, while GDX shed 2 1/4. Volume was heavy heading lower. The short term indicators for GDX have started to turn lower. Not sure where the gold shares are headed next. I don't have any GDX option trades in mind right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which fits the down market. It closed at the important level of 20. The short term indicators are back to moving up with room to go. The VIX is bouncing from its 50 day moving average that it could not get through. That is not a positive for stocks. Running out of time in the November option cycle but we won't try anything just for the sake of making a trade. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. Tomorrow should be interesting.

The Dow continues to lead the way here as it gained 314 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving higher but does not seem to have conviction along the way. The NASDAQ posted another small loss and the S&P 500 managed to eek out a slight gain. Some of the short term indicators on the S&P are moving sideways while others continue higher. Not yet short term overbought here. I'm still thinking that the S&P 500 is about to make new all time highs here but I could be wrong. The recent bounce off of the 50 day moving average started out strong but seems to be losing steam. Maybe we'll try the SPY November puts ahead of the weekend. Gold jumped $84 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat along with interest rates. The XAU climbed ten points and GDX added another 2 1/2. Volume was good again to the upside. Some but not all of the short term indicators for GDX are overbought. It looks like the gold shares are on their way to new all time highs but we'll have to wait and see about that. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a but higher today and remains above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are beginning to stall. Not yet oversold here either. I don't know what to expect next on this indicator. We'll look things over again tonight and go from there. Seven days to go in the November option cycle. Asia and Europe were up overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A mixed picture today but the Dow had a huge gain of 584 points to close at a record on good volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is starting to move higher. The NASDAQ posted a small loss and the S&P 500 managed a small gain. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving up. A partial holiday today in the US, so all the players weren't in the game. The governemnt shutdown could end tomorrow but that is probably already baked into the market. Waiting on a signal for the next trade. Possibly could be the SPY November puts next week. Or maybe the calls if we see some selling during this week. I still think that we are heading to new all time highs for the S&P 500 though. Gold was up $14 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were unchanged. The XAU was up 3 1/2, while GDX rose almost 2/3. Volume was light. GDX is getting to short term overbought on some of its indicators. I don't have any GDX option trades in mind at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower and isn't short term oversold yet. Almost back down through the 50 day moving average here. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A nice rally to begin the week as the Dow gained 381 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn up once again. The NASDAQ led the way and was up over 500 points. The S&P 500 gained over 100 points. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back up with plenty of room to go. This looks like the beginning of a rally that will take us back to new all time highs. It looks like we are too late for the SPY November calls but we'll see. The US government shut down is about to end and that is the excuse for buying. I'd like to get some kind of trade in before option expiration but we'll see. Gold was up over $100 on the futures as money came back into this space. The US dollar and interest rates finished flat. The XAU jumped almost 13 points, while GDX added 3 3/8. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are moving up. GDX is now above its 50 day moving average. Although GDX traded below that level it managed to hang around in that area before moving higher. We missed the GDX November call trade however I am not as sure that the gold shares will be heading to new all time highs here right away. But I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term indicators here are mostly heading lower. This fits with our idea of new all time highs for the stock market sooner rather than later. Europe and Asia were up as money is being put back in stocks around the world. Tomorrow is Veterans Day and a partial holiday in the US. The stock market will be open but banks and Federal offices will be closed. We'll keep an eye on any overnight developments.

Today we had some one day upside reversals as the Dow rose 74 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving lower. Most stock indices opened with a gap lower and then closed higher with the exception of the NASDAQ which ended negative. The turnaround began around noon time and went all the way into the close. We are looking at the SPY November calls perhaps on any weakness Monday. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are stalling once again and are not yet completely short term oversold. The 50 day moving average held things in check today. We have to figure out if the recent weakness was just another pause in the longer term rally or the start of maybe a five to ten percent drop which is long overdue. We are leaning towards the bullish outcome for now. However we'll look things over this weekend and go from there. Gold was up $16 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU gained 6 2/3 and GDX added 1 3/4. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are now moving higher and there's a chance that the decline in the gold shares is over. GDX closed just below its 50 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX traded above the 20 level early on only to close below it. It finished lower which fits with an overall slightly higher market. The short term indicators here are beginning to stall. Although the daily candlestick chart for the VIX looks bullish again this indicator has not panned out lately. Not sure which way it goes from here. I'll be checking the charts over the next couple of days to come up with a game plan for next week. Asia and Europe were lower on Friday to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 398 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ led the way down again and that is not a plus. Once again we had a final hour sell off which translates into something bearish. Not sure for the reasons right now. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are back to moving down with room to go. It appears that it is on the way to test its 50 day moving average at 6665. That might be the spot to try the SPY November calls. Or not. Since we are not exactly sure what is going on here the sidelines are probably where we need to be. We also have yet to see a solid signal one way or the other for the next SPY trade. Option premiums are beginning to become better priced though. We'll look things over again tonight and take it from there. Gold was off four bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. GDX remains short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was back up today and the short term indicators are moving higher with room to go. It closed a half point away from the important level of 20. If we make it past that level the decline in stocks will be more than I expect and last longer. Europe finished lower and Asia higher with the exception of India. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Heading back up today as the Dow gained 225 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way today which is a plus for the bulls. The market did fall in the final hour though and that isn't usually a good thing. I'm not exactly sure what is going on here so we are still on the sidelines for the time being. One of our models showed yesterday as a medium term low for the market with prices rising from here. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are stalling here as they head lower. I'm still considering the SPY November calls at the moment. Gold was up $33 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were higher. The XAU was up 7 points and GDX climbed 2 1/3. Volume was slightly above average. GDX remains short term oversold and we're still on the sidelines when it comes to trading the options in GDX for now. Mentally I feel OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. Once again the daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower but that hasn't worked out recently. When in doubt stay out is usually solid advice in this game. We'll wait for the next decent signal and go from there. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on this evenings developments.

Moving lower today as the Dow fell 251 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ dropping 2% and leading the way. My idea of higher prices and new all time highs has been negated by todays price action. We had a big gap down at the open, tried to rally and then fell down for the rest of the session. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving down with plenty of room to go. Getting to mid-range on some. Not sure what to expect next as I do not seem to have a good handle on things at the moment. With the summation index moving down I'd expect lower prices to follow in the near term. I am now looking at the SPY November calls. The US government shutdown continues but that will not last forever. The US Supreme court will meet tomorrow regarding the US tariff legality but a decision won't be coming right away. So there are things in the pipeline that will most likely affect stocks one way or the other. Gold lost $66 today on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked lower. The XAU fell 12 1/2, while GDX lost 3 points. Volume was above average. Money is moving out of the alternative assets such as gold and bitcoin at the moment. Not sure why or where the money is going. GDX closed at a new recent low and remains short term oversold. I'm still considering the November GDX calls but that may not be the best idea right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and the short trm indicators have turned up. The VIX got above the 20 level during the day. Yesterday the daily candlestick chart here looked like it wanted to go lower but todays action has canceled that. Once again my reading of what's happening is not correct so I will probably have to take a step back for now. Still plenty of time in the November option cycle. Asia and Europe were down overnight with the exception of the FTSE. Perhaps money around the workd knows things that we don't. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Another mixed bag to begin the trading week as the Dow was lower while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted gains. The most watched index fell 226 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ once again was the strongest and that's a plus. The S&P 500 has been going sideways for a week and remains in short term overbought territory. My thought here is that it is consolidating before going on to new all time highs again. I could be wrong. The SPY November option premiums are still pricey so we continue to wait on the next trade. Gold was up $26 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates finished flat again. The XAU fell 2 1/8 and GDX slid 3/4. Volume was light. GDX remains short term oversold and hanging around its 50 day moving average. Starting to think that maybe the November calls here could be the next trade but we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and is still short term oversold. The daily candlestick chart for the VIX appears like it wants to go lower. That would be supportive for stocks. Plenty of earnings to deal with as the US government continues to be on hold. Asia was higher and Europe mixed to start the week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Up, down, all around today as the Dow rose 40 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving lower. A gap higher to begin with and then a sell off into negative territory only to come back up once again. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a good thing for the bulls. Perhaps yesterdays sell signal only lasted a day again. That has happened before during this years long rally. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are turning sideways but still in overbought territory. I'm not exactly sure what we have going next here for the market but we'll take the weekend to try and figure things out. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat once again. The XAU lost 4 1/8 and GDX shed 7/8. Volume was average. GDX remains short term oversold and hanging around the 50 day moving average. No GDX option trades for now. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was higher today which doesn't fit with an up market. Still on the short term oversold side of the ledger here. Getting mixed signals from the VIX lately and not sure where it goes from here. Plenty of charts to look at over the weekend. I'll try to come up with something with three weeks to go in the November option cycle. Europe and Asia finished lower with the exception of Japan to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Sellers took over today as the Dow fell 110 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. We did get a sell signal from one of our indicators last night and it appears to be valid. How long it lasts is the question. The US/China trade talks ended peacefully but there were some earnings reports the weren't viewed as favorable. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading things lower by far. That is not a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned down. Our hope is that things hold up here but the S&P did close practically at the low for the session. Gold rose $38 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU gained 5 1/4, while GDX was up 1 2/3. Volume was a bit above average. GDX remains short term oversold but the indicators are trying to move up. Not sure if GDX is putting in a bottom here but it is possible. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX ended basically unchanged today which doesn't fit with a down market. Still short term oversold on the indicators here. Hard for me to figure out what the VIX is implying here as it hasn't matched up with the overall stock price movement for a few days. We are going to let tomorrow pass and look to next week to possibly make the next option trade. Asia and Europe finished lower. We'll close out the month of October and the trading week tomorrow.

A mixed bag after the Fed as the Dow fell 74 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to move sideways. No surprises from the Fed as rates dropped as expected. The NASDAQ was higher today but the Dow was lower and the S&P 500 finished flat. As long as the NASDAQ continues to lead we'll give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Next up is the US/China trade meeting tomorrow. Good news will take us higher and bad news will see some selling. Gold was off $24. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on good volume. GDX remains short term oversold hanging around its 50 day moving average. No GDX trades in mind for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and remains short term oversold. Not sure what to expect next there. Market breadth hasn't been all that great lately and the summation index has been having trouble going higher. Although we still give the bulls the edge for now we all know things can change in a hurry. We will see what happens overnight and go from there. Asia was generally higher and Europe generally lower in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Another positive session as the Dow gained 161 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative though. The summation index is still moving higher. The gains were better during the day but we had a sell off in the final hour. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way higher. New all time highs for the big 3 again. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought. We'll get the Fed tomorrow and that should get things moving one way or the other. If we can get a couple of days more of buying, a sell signal may pop up. We'll see. Gold dropped forty bucks on the futures to close below the $4000 level. The US dollar was a touch lower and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU was up 3 1/2 and GDX gained a point. Volume was good. The gold shares followed the overall market higher. GDX remains short term oversold. Not sure if it is putting in some kind of bottom here but we are not going to risk trying the GDX calls yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today on an up day and that doesn't fit. Still short term oversold here. Not sure what's coming next here. Still plenty of earnings to digest this week along with a US/China meeting of leaders. Trying to remain patient for now as we watch and wait. Asia and Europe were lower on Tuesday with the exception of the FTSE. We'll see how markets react to the Fed tomorrow.

Powering higher as the Dow gained 337 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. New all time highs all around again as news of a thaw in the US/China trade talks sparked a rally. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus. The major indices have broken out and there is no overhead resistance. The S&P 500 is short term overbought but can stay that way during rallies. We will enjoy the ride for now. Gold lost $135 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates finished generally flat. The XAU fell 11 points, while GDX slid almost 3. Volume was pretty heavy to the downside. Once again traders are heading to the exits here. The gold shares did finish up from their lows on the session. But GDX has lost at one time today 20% of its value since hitting a high a week and half ago. The end of the parabolic rise is never pretty. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is short term oversold. Nothing here says that the rally in stocks has to end as the VIX can stay oversold for extended periods of time. We will bide our time for now and wait for the next signal. The Fed on Wednesday and the US/China trade meeting on Thursday should be the next excuses for market movement. Asia and Europe began the week on a positive note. We'll keep an eye on any overnight developments.

Marching up to new all time highs as the Dow climbed 472 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. Inflation data came in a touch lower than expected and there was a gap higher at the open. The market never looked back but had a drift lower in the final hour. New all time highs were reached by the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500. The S&P is still not completely short term overbought yet. There is no overhead resistance. I suspect that we will see higher prices from here in the near term. Gold was off $24 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed again after being lower early on. Interest rates ended the day flat as well. The XAU fell 2 3/8, while GDX lost a point. Volume was a bit above average. GDX remains short term oversold on some of its indicators but not all. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. It is now short term oversold and closed below its 50 day moving average. The VIX still implies more near term gains for stocks. We are waiting for the next decent technical signal before taking on the next trade. There will be plenty of noise next week with a Fed meeting and a US/China get together. Headline risk will rise. I'll be going over the charts this weekend to try and come up with a game plan going forward. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 144 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to get going to the upside. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 appears to be back on its way to short term overbought but is not there yet. Tomorrows reaction to the inflation data should set the stage for where the market is headed next. My guess is that we'll be heading to new all time highs for the S&P. Gold was up $67 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat again and interest rates rose. The XAU was up 2 3/8, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was a bit above average. The short term indicators for GDX remain oversold but not completely so. The 50 day moving average here has held the decline for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and continues to be short term oversold. The daily candlestcik chart here looks like it wants to go lower which be be a boost for stocks. We'll see. Todays market action was a decent rebound from yesterdays losses but we are really just waiting for tomorrow. Europe and Asia finished higher last night with the exception of Japan. We'll see how it goes with the inflation report tomorrow.

Sellers took over today as the Dow fell 334 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still struggling to turn back up. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. It could have been worse though as stocks finished up from the lows on the session. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned lower but I'm still in the camp that we'll hit new all time highs soon. I could be wrong. We'll see ow the rest of the week shapes up. Gold finished up $9 on the futures after being lower early on. The US dollar ended the day unchanged along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/2 and GDX rose 1/4. Volume was heavy again. The gold shares came up from their lows on the session as well. GDX has made it back to its 50 day moving average. We'll see if it holds. The short term indicators here are not yet completely oversold. It was quite a run for GDX but it has now at one point lost 17% in the past week. Gold itself is still very far from its 50 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today which fits with a down market. The short term indicators are beginning to trend sideways. Some are oversold and others are not. The VIX was over the twenty level at some point today but then fell back. If the short term indicators for the VIX begin to rise again, volatlity will return and my prognosis of new all time highs will have to be put on hold. Fridays inflation data and the market reaction to it should give us some clues. Asia and Europe finished generally lower last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 218 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to move higher. The NASDAQ posted a small loss and the S&P 500 finished flat. It was a sideways trading day for the most part. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P are beginning to stall. We will get some inflation data on Friday to trade on despite the continued US government shut down. Option premiums remain high. Gold got clobbered today after yesterdays stellar gains. The precious metal futures lost $238. The US dollar was higher and interest rates a touch lower. The XAU fell thirty points and GDX shed 7 3/4. Volume was extremely heavy to the down side again. The gold shares dropped 9 1/2% in a day. The short term indicators for GDX are heading lower. Traders are heading to the exits here. This is most likely the end of the rally for gold and the gold shares for now. Violent moves in both directions usually occur at tops or bottoms. The short term up trend line for gold is still intact but not for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today. The short term indicators here are still moving down. Below the 20 level on the VIX but still above the 50 day moving average. No imminent trades in mind right now. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Stocks rallied to begin the week as the Dow climbed 516 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to move higher. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus. If things conitinue at this pace we'll be at new all time highs soon. That is probably what is about to happen. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are pointing up with room to go. Barring some unforseen negative event, we're going higher. Earnings season is upon us. Option premiums are high so we'll have to wait for now on the next trade. Gold soared $180 on the futures to a new all time high. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates were a bit lower. The XAU was up 8 points and GDX gained 1 2/3. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to stall. The gold shares should have gotten more of a boost today with gold up as much as it was. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are moving down. This is in line with what we expected for the near term. I'd expect the VIX to continue lower and stocks to hit new highs at some point this week. If we get a sell signal after that occurs we'll have to decide what action to take then. But like I've already said the option premiums are high with the November cycle having an extra week in it. So we'll have to wait and see. Asia and Europe were up to start the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Volatility is the name of the game for now as the Dow gained 238 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index is still heading lower. It was a back and forth trading day with an upwards bias. The Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 had the same percentage gains on the session. The short term indicators for the S&P are now mid-range. So it could go either way. However with earnings season upon us my guess is that we'll get the usual beating of low expectations that lead to rallies in particular stocks. We'll see. Rolling into the November option cycle. Gold took a breather today as it dropped sixty bucks. The US dollar was slightly higher along with interest rates. The gold shares got clobbered. The XAU fell 23 1/3 and GDX dropped almost 6 points. Volume was extremely heavy in a run to the exits. The short term indicators for GDX have turned down again with room to go. Time will tell if this is the beginning of a sustained move lower or just another blip on the way up. Long overdue for some kind of correction in gold and the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX jumped up to 29 today only to drop all the way back near 20. The short term indicators here have turned down. The daily candlestick chart for the VIX implies that the decline is over. We'll have to wait and see about that. I'll be going over all the charts this weekend as usual. No rush to trade as November has an extra week in its option cycle so premiums are high. Combine that with the recent volatility and options are pricey. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of India to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Heading lower today as the Dow fell 301 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving lower. We had a gap higher at the open and a short rally that turned around. It was a one day reversal to the downside for the major indices. The Dow and S&P led things lower so it wasn't the most bearish possible scenario. But the short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned lower again. Could lead to an interesting expiration Friday. I did not place any trades and decided to stay on the sidelines as the short term trades are not usually my best efforts. Had some opportunities this week but recognized that I was not up to the challenge. We are now looking at the November option cycle. Gold was up $125 on the futures, past the $4300 level and a new all time high. This rally in the precious metals is getting a little insane. The XAU was up 10 7/8 and GDX gained 2 7/8. Volume continues to be strong to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX continue to be overbought and it has broken above the upper Bollinger band. Perhaps gold knows something that we don't. Or maybe it's just another tulip bulb mania. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped to 25 today and is short term overbought. Volatility is back. As I've already said the trades have to be short lived and profits taken when they are there because that's where we find ourselves at the moment. Tougher than usual trading atmosphere. Asia and Europe were generally higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week with expiration Friday tomorrow.

Bouncing all around today and the Dow finished with a loss of 17 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to turn back up. We had a gap higher and rally at the open followed by a steep decline. The market then made it all back and then some. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted gains with the NASDAQ leading the way. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back up. I did put in an order today for the SPY October puts but it wasn't filled. Might be too late now for this idea but we'll see. Only a couple of days left in the October option cycle. We did make it to the resistance at 6720 on the S&P today. Perhaps if we get there tomorrow I'll try the puts but probably the more prudent thing to do would be to stay on the sidelines and roll into the November cycle. Gold was up over sixty bucks today and crossed the $4200 level. The US dollar finished lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU was up 11 1/3 and GDX climbed 3 points. Volume was good to the upside. GDX is back to short term overbought. Gold is going straight up and the gold shares follow. An incredible run higher so enjoy it while it lasts. No telling when it will end but that will be spectacular as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower and remains above 20. The short term indicators are starting to move sideways. Not sure where the VIX is heading next. Wild moves in the market lately so the risk factor has increased. You need to take your profits if you have them quickly in this trading environment. Asia was higher and Europe lower except for France overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

A mixed bag today but the Dow managed a gain of 202 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ had a decent drop and the S&P 500 was slightly lower. We retested the recent lows on the S&P early this morning and they held for now. The question now is will the S&P head down there again and will the lows hold on a third drop? Today the S&P made it back to the first resistance at 6680 and was turned back in the final half hour. With only three days to go in the October option cycle is it worth the risk for another trade here? Well yes, if the timing in and out is correct. But that is no easy task. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P are still heading lower and others remain at mid-range. I'll consider what I want to do overnight. Gold was up $27 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was off 2 1/2, while GDX slid 7/8. Volume was average. The short term indicators on GDX are overbought but not completely. Some of them are starting to turn down. Gold up and the gold shares down isn't a positive. Mentally I'm feeling a little tired. The VIX bounce around and finished higher on the session. The short term indicators here are back to pointing up. The VIX is back above the important level of 20. So volatility should stick around for a while. Headline risk remains front and center since there is no economic data to trade on. Asia and Europe were lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A huge bounce back to the upside as the Dow gained 588 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. There was a big gap on the open and the market never looked back. The NASAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The S&P 500 was up over 100 points. Normally we'd be looking for a retest of the recent lows but the price action of the past couple of days has been headline driven so I don't know what to expect. Not looking at the SPY October calls anymore as the jump has already happened. Might try the puts again but with only four days left in the October option cycle the risk is very high. The short term indicators for the S&P are at mid-range with some of them pointing higher. There is some short term resistance at 6680 and plenty more at 6720. Those would be areas to think about the puts if we get that far. However there is also the possibility that the market simply continues to move higher from here. Gold gained $125 on the futures today to a new all time high. Silver hit a new high as well. The US dollar was up and interest rates finished flat. The XAU jumped 14 and GDX was up 3 1/2. Volume was a bit above average. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back up. There is no stopping the money flowing into precious metals or so it seems. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and closed back below 20. The short term indicators here have turned back down. That would imply more stock gains in the near term. We'll see. Asia lower and Europe higher to start the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

The tariff tantrum returned and markets got clobbered as the Dow fell 878 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ led the way down and was off 3.5%. The S&P 500 was off 2.75%. Players all headed to the exits at the same time. The S&P is no longer short term overbought and some indicators have already made it down to short term oversold. All the recent up trend lines for the S&P have been broken. Support could come in at the 50 day moving average at 6530 but we are practically there already. Selling out SPY October puts yesterday proved to be the wrong move but we did what we thought we had to at the time. If we had left the original stop loss order intact we would have been stopped out for a loss this morning when the market rallied at the open today. We've had this problem using the stops loss orders before where we've missed out on moves. However without them the losses can pile up pretty fast. Doesn't matter now. Our sell signal was valid but we are now concerned with where we go from here. I'm looking at the SPY October calls for next week. My guess is that todays tariff tension will be walked back over the weekend. Perhaps if we get some follow through selling on Monday we'll try the calls. Monday is a partial holiday in the US, so trading may be thin. Gold bounced back $57 today on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on above average volume. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to move sideways. Waiting to see if it breaks support at the 74 level. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated. The VIX jumped today and now is above the important level of 20. Short term overbought now but not completely. The volatility implied by the tight Bollinger bands finally came to fruition today. Not sure if this is a one day event or the beginning of a sustained decline for stocks. Plenty of work to do on the charts over the weekend. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of India. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Minor selling today as the Dow fell 243 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The Dow led things lower but that isn't the most bearish scenario. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had small losses and came up from the lows of the session in the final hour. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned lower but are still overbought. During the day I adjusted up my stop loss order on the SPY October puts as the decline didn't have any steam in it and I did not want to book another loss. It got stopped out in the final hour for a 5% gain. We don't take the risks involved trading options for 5% gains but this trade was not working as I had thought it would. The entry wasn't all that good and neither was the exit. Might try this idea again but running out of time in the October option cycle. Yesterday I was thankful that we abandoned the GDX put idea. Today gold and the gold shares got crushed. The precious metal futures fell $82. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were up slightly. The XAU lost almost 13 points and GDX was off 3 1/2. Volume was heavy. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over with plenty of room to go. The near term up trend line comes in at just below 74. A break there will tell us that the party is over for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today. The short term indicators here are stalling at the mid-range level. Not sure what's next for the VIX. The Bollinger bands remain tight but that hasn't led to any big increase in volatility yet. Asia was generally higher and Europe generally lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The overall market continues to plow ahead but the Dow lags as it dropped a point on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower but could be trying to turn around here. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at new all time highs. The S&P continues to remain short term overbought. It appears that our recent sell signal only lasted a day. I did adjust my open order for the SPY October puts and it was filled during the session. It is showing a small loss. At the rate things are going it will get stopped out tomorrow. Unless we see a quick turnaround lower this trade will be another loser. Gold was up fifty bucks today as the straight line higher just keeps on going. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up 8 7/8, while GDX gained 2 1/8. Volume was good. GDX remains overbought on all timeframes and for longer than one could reasonably expect. Not sure when this will end and remain thankful that we shelved the GDX put idea. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an overall up market. The short term indicators have turned around lower and imply more stocks gains to come in the near term. That would kill our SPY October put trade but it appears that's where we are heading. Seven days left in the October option cycle. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep watch on the overnight developments.

Some overdue selling today as the Dow fell 92 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trending lower. It was a one day downside reversal as stocks opened higher and closed lower. The NASDAQ led the way down but it wasn't anything dramatic. That is exactly how it has been lately. When we have seen any selling it has been minor and short lived. That could again be the case here but we don't know for certain. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. My open order for the SPY October puts almost got filled in the morning but didn't. I adjusted it during the session but still no fill. I will probably adjust it again overnight. My thinking now is that this is something that I want to get filled on but I am not looking for a major decline to be starting here, just a tradeable one. I'll give this some more thought tonight. Gold simply continues to move straight up climbing another $27 on the futures to finish above the $4000 level. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dipped. The XAU dropped over 4 3/4 and GDX shed 1 2/3. Volume was average. Gold up and the gold shares down isn't exactly a positive development here but it's only one day. The short term indicators on GDX have turned down but it remains short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with a down market. The short term indicators here are moving up and are almost short term overbought. This points to the possibility that the selling that we are seeing will be ending rather quickly. That would mean the risk in trying the SPY puts here may not be worth it. Which is something else to consider later tonight. Europe and Asia were slightly higher overnight. Some Asian markets a closed for holiday this week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Another mixed market as the Dow dropped while the overall market gained. The most watched index fell 63 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending lower. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closed at new all time highs. The S&P remains short term overbought. My open order for the SPY October puts remains out there. Hopefully it will get filled tomorrow as the sell signal on one of our indicators remains out there. I might have to adjust the order to get it filled but we should see some selling this week according to the techncials. Gold continues to move straight up as the futures gained $74 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates moved up as well. The XAU was up 5 1/8 and GDX rose 1 1/2. Volume was a bit above average. Thankfully we took off the GDX put idea last week. I'm still a believer that this rally in gold and the gold shares will have a nasty pullback at some point. GDX has remained short term overbought for such a long time that you begin to think that it will never drop again. But it will. Straight up moves never have a good ending. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The short term indicators are starting to roll over by the mid-range level. This would imply higher stock prices in the near term. That would not bode well for the SPY put idea. The Bollinger bands here remain pretty tight but we haven't seen any really big moves despite that. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower to begin the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A mixed bag to end the week but the Dow managed a gain of 238 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ posted a small loss, while the S&P 500 finished basically unchanged. The S&P remains short term overbought. I'm leaving my open order for the SPY October puts out there but might adjust it over the weekend. Still on a sell signal for one of our indicators that we like but it can be early at times. But not more than a couple of days. We will most likely try and buy the puts on Monday barring a huge rally. Gold was up $44 on the futures to a new all time high and also crossed the $3900 level. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU was up 3/4 and GDX finished flat. Volume was light. Gold up and the gold shares really didn't follow. That is not a plus for the bulls. GDX remains short term overbought as it has been for weeks. Will gold reach $4000 next week? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished little changed. The short term indicators are trending higher but not yet overbought. I'm still not sure where the VIX is headed next. Another positive week for stocks as the rally seemingly has nothing to derail it. Plenty of money still to go around. It will end at some point but we certainly don't know what the catalyst will be. Two weeks left in the October option cycle. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Europe and Asia finished Friday on the plus side except for the Hang Seng and the DAX. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow gained 78 points in an up and down session to a new all time high again. The advance/declines were slightly negative and volume was heavy. The summation index continues to trend lower. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted new records as well. The S&P continues to be short term overbought and continues to move higher. This has been the case for a couple of months now. We're getting another sell signal from one of our indicators. I've placed an open order for the SPY October puts and I'm leaving it out there. Ideally this order would be filled early next week but markets rarely cooperate. It is also a more tricky trading environment with the US government shutdown. We'll stick with the technicals though. Gold dipped $17 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates ended flat. The XAU lost 1 2/3 and GDX fell 1/4. Volume was heavy. It was a very volatile session for the gold shares as GDX had an intraday swing of 4 points. Not sure what it all means but the gold shares finished well up from the lows of the session. Still considering the GDX October puts for now but really looking at the SPY options for the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which once again doesn't fit with an up market. The short term indicators here are moving up from the mid-range level. Still not sure what's next for the VIX. Asia and Europe were higher with the exception of the FTSE. We'll see where things go on Friday and take it from there.

We had a one day upside reversal to begin the month of October as stocks opened lower and closed higher. The Dow rose 43 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way up. Even a US government shutdown wasn't enough to derail the bulls. However another problem to deal with here is that the economic reports might be delayed. We won't know when important trading data will be released. As if trading itself wasn't hard enough as it is. The DOW and S&P 500 set new all time highs. The NASDAQ is almost there. I'm still considering the SPY October puts if we stay positive into Friday. The S&P remains short term overbought. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures to another new all time high. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 3 2/3, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was average. I canceled my open order for the GDX October puts. I'll reconsider this idea tonight. GDX remains short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished unchanged and the short term indicators are hanging around the mid-range level. Not sure what's next now for the VIX. More than the usual amount of uncertainty right now but the market continues higher. There is no overhead resistance. Liquidity doesn't seem to be a problem. It's a teflon market at the moment. Nothing sticks to it on the downside. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of Japan. I'll keep watch on the overnight headlines.

End of the month buying as the Dow gained 91 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still heading lower. The McClellan oscillator gave a signal last night for a big move within the next two days. Didn't get it today so we'll see about tomorrow. Today was a sideways affair until a mild rally in the final two hours. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 led the way. The short term indicators for the S&P are slowly moving higher. I still think that new all time highs are coming soon for the NASDAQ and S&P. The Dow closed at a record today. The question now is how to postion ourselves ahead of Fridays jobs report. If we continue higher ahead of Friday I might try the SPY October puts but it would be risky. The market is overbought on many of the indicators though. Gold was up $32 on the futures to another new all time high. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU was up 2 7/8, while GDX rose 2/3. Volume was average. GDX remains short term overbought. I did place an overnight order for the GDX October puts and I'm leaving it out there. Not a lot of money invovled so I'm willing to take the risk here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today which again doesn't fit with an up market. The Bollinger bands on the daily chart are getting tighter. Still mid-range for the short term indicators here. My guess would be that the VIX drops and we see a rally for stocks but who knows? Beginning of October tomorrow. Europe finished higer and Asia was mixed again. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A positive start to the week as the Dow gained 69 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's plus. End of the month tomorrow. The highlight of the week will be the jobs report on Friday. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to stall after turning back up. They are not as overbought as they have been. My guess is that we'll be heading back to new all time highs at some point this week. Gold was up $47 to a new all time high on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 3 points and GDX gained a point. Volume was average. The gold shares did finish well below their highs on the session. I'm still considering the GDX October puts and may place an order overnight. The 5 wave upside pattern for GDX that began in August that I thought was valid has been negated. GDX has moved above what I thought was the fifth and final wave higher. However on the gold itself weekly chart it appears that gold is in the 5th and final wave higher from 2022. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which doesn't fit with an up market. The short term indicators here are at mid-range so it could go either way from here. I'm still not sure what to expect next from this indicator. Asia was mixed and Europe little changed to begin the trading week. There is a potential US government shutdown tomorrow night but the market doesn't seem to care. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 300 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. We opened with a gap higher, gave it all back and then rallied for the rest of the session. The inflation data came in where expected. The Dow led the way higher today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. However we did turn around where the S&P short term indicators have in the current rally so far. That leads us to believe that the rally will continue from here. The NASDAQ is beginning to lag though and that may be a cause for concern. The summation index is heading lower as well. We'll see how it goes at the beginning of next week but for now it appears the selling is done in the short term. Gold was up $23 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up 6 1/3, while GDX climbed 1 1/2. Volume was average. I adjusted my order for the GDX October calls and eventually canceled it ahead of the weekend. The short term indicators for GDX are turning sideways and it remains overbought. I'm going to have to take another look at the GDX put idea over the weekend as my 5 wave count in the current up trend might be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. The short term indicators here have moved lower. The VIX now looks like it is heading lower and that would be supportive for stocks. Plenty of work to do over the weekend to come up with an idea for next week. Asia down and Europe up to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

More selling today as sellers continue to have the upper hand and the Dow fell 174 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ barely led things lower followed by the S&P. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over with room to go. They are close to the mid-range level though and that has stopped every minor decline that we've seen on the way up. So if things hold up here we would have to figure that the selling is done for now. If not then we may actually see some kind of correction or extended decline. Tomorrow should tell a lot when the market reacts to the inflation data. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates moved up as well. The XAU gained 2 2/3 and GDX added 3/4. Volume was about average. GDX remains short term overbought and we are still considering the October puts here on a move back to the 75 level. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up today which fits with a down market. The short term indicators are on the overbought side of things but not completely so. I think the VIX could go either way here. Again, a lot will have to do with how the market reacts to the inflation data tomorrow. No idea how that will shape up so we'll watch and wait for now. Europe and Asia finished lower with the exception of Japan. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Some follow through selling today which we haven't seen in a while as the Dow fell 171 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending lower. The Dow led the way down today and that isn't the most bearish scenario. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned lower but it still remains short term overbought. Not sure if this is the beginning of something sustained to the downside or just a pause in the rally. We'll know more by the end of the week. Gold dropped $52 today. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The XAU fell over 9 3/4, while GDX lost 1 7/8. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have turned lower but it remains short term overbought. However it appears that the 5 wave rally that began in the beginning of August for GDX is valid and completed. We are looking to purchase some GDX October puts. Ideally we'll see a light volume bounce from here that fails. The short term up trend line for GDX comes in at 68 and that would be the first downside target. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that doesn't fit with a down market. Some of the short term indicators here have started to turn down. Still not sure what comes next here for the VIX. Some economic data due out tomorrow and a lot of Fed speak. Inflation data on Friday is the main event. Europe and Asia were mixed again overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Sellers showed up on the street today as the Dow fell 88 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is beginning to trend lower. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two sessions. We'll see if that happens tomorrow. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. That is not a plus for the bulls however one day does not make a trend. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Gold finished up $25 to the $3800 level on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower as were interest rates. The XAU was fractionally higher and GDX fractionally lower on the gold shares. Volume was slightly above average. GDX is still short term overbought as well. If the 5 wave count on the rally is correct the gold shares should take a pause here or perhaps enter a decline. I am looking at the GDX October puts. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which fits with a down market. The short term indicators on the VIX are moving higher. The VIX is at its upper Bollinger band. I still don't know what's in store next for this indicator. Europe was higher and Asia mixed again overnight. Asia trading will be impacted tomorrow by a major typhoon bearing down on Hong Kong. We'll keep watch on tonights developments.

The beat goes on as the Dow rose 66 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving sideways. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way higher. There is no overhead resistance. New all time highs for the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 once again. The overbought condition for the S&P remains in place on both a daily and weekly basis. Enjoy the ride. Gold jumped $76 on the futures to a new all time high. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ended slightly higher. The XAU climbed 7 1/3, while GDX was up 1 7/8. Volume was good to the upside. Gold is moving straight up now and that cannot last forever. It is extremely overbought but I can't say when that will end. Same for the gold shares. I have started looking at the GDX October puts. However the money just continues to pour into precious metal assets. As I have stated before, this won't end well. The problem here is we don't know when it will stop. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today in an up market and that doesn't fit. The short term indicators here have turned higher. Not sure what is going on right now with this indicator. Most of this weeks economic data will be later this week higlighted by the inflation news on Friday. Asia and Europe started the week on a mixed note. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Higher and higher we climb as the Dow gained 172 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative though. This will have the summation index going sideways again. New all time highs for the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 again. No overhead resistance and apparently plenty of liquidity to go around. The S&P is simply overbought and staying that way. Sort of like the same situation we have with gold right now but not as extreme. We are in a seasonally negative period for stocks but that doesn't seem to matter. Just sit back and enjoy the ride for now I suppose. Gold gained forty bucks today. The US dollar was higher and interest rates edged up. The XAU jumped 12 7/8, while GDX climbed 3 2/3. Volume was heavy to the upside. Is there any point to saying GDX is still short term overbought? It doesn't seem to matter. Until it does. The gold shares are extremely overbought on all time frames and about as far away from their 200 day and weekly averages as they get. Money just keeps pouring in there though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and its short term indicators have turned down. The Bollinger bands on the daily chart here are starting to contract again. I'll be checking the charts this weekend to try and come up with a game plan for the October option cycle. Asia and Europe were lower to complete the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Moving higher today as the Dow gained 124 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is back to trying to move higher. The NASDAQ continues to be the leader to the upside and that is a plus for the bulls. There was a gap higher at the open and then we traded in positive territory for the rest of the session. The market did finish off from the highs of the day though. The short term indicators remain overbought for the S&P 500. New all time highs for most of the major stock indices today, now including the Russell 2000. It's been a bull run since the lows in April and there doesn't seem to be anything to derail things at the moment. I'll wait for the next technical signal and go from there. Gold was down $38 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume. The gold shares held up better than the metal itself most likely following the overall stock market. GDX is overbought as it has been for the last month and a half. One more run higher would complete a five wave upside pattern from the breakout in the beginning of August on the daily chart. We'll see of that occurs. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a touch lower today. The short term indicators here have stalled and came in sideways today. Not sure where the VIX is going next. Expiration Friday tomorrow so things could get strange. We'll let that pass and move on to next week. Asia finished mixed and Europe was higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A volatile session after the Fed announcement but the Dow managed a gain of 260 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were abut even. The summation index is still trying to move higher. Rates were lowered as expected. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted small losses. The market rallied after the Fed announcement only to give it all back and have a sharp decline. Then things turned right back around again to positive territory and finally drift lower in the final half hour. We finished well up from the lows on the day. The S&P is still short term overbought. During todays gyrations my SPY September puts got stopped out for a 33% loss. At one point they were showing a 100% gain. Todays results are an example of the stop loss order working against you as there could have been profits if not stopped out. However you are trying to cut your losses with the order so the trade doesn't go to zero. Perhaps I should have canceled the stop loss when things got volatile but hindsight is always correct. I wouldn't say the trade was mismanaged but obviously I'd feel a lot better if there would have been a profit. The sell signal we had did work but for only a very short period of time and not with a huge move in price. Not what I expected. Or perhaps the selling isn't done yet. We'll know more as the trading week is completed. Gold finished off $31 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU fell 1 1/8 and GDX lost 1/3. Volume was good. GDX remains short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated booking another losing trade. There wasn't a lot of money involved but it has been a tough year on the trading front so far. The VIX finished lower today despite the increased volatility. Some of the short term indicators have turned back down. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower. We'll see. Two days left in option expiration week and I'm back on the sidelines. I'll start looking at the October options. Europe and Asia were generally higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

It was a one day downside reversal for most of the major indices as stocks opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 125 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still trying to move higher but has had a tough time doing so. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 had very slight declines. It's simply a waiting game ahead of whatever happens with the Fed tomorrow. The S&P is still short term overbought. I've still got the SPY September puts with only three days left before option expiration. They are still showing just a very small profit. The outcome of this trade will lie with the market reaction to the Fed tomorrow. One of our indicators remains in sell signal territory, so we'll see if this works tomorrow. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was sharply lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU lost 6 1/3 and GDX fell about 1 1/2. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are still overbought but they have turned down. Gold should move off of the Fed tomorrow as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and the short term indicators are moving up. The VIX did close above its 50 day moving average. My hope is that it keeps moving higher but hope is not a trading strategy. Not sure where the VIX is heading tomorrow. Waiting on the Fed and that's all we can do at this point. Management of the trade in progress will be key. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

We had a gap higher at the open and spent the rest of the day in positive territory as the Dow gained 49 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to move higher again. The overall market did much better than the Dow, with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closing again at new all time highs. The NASDAQ led the way up and that is a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 remains in its short term overbought condition. One of our indicators is flashing a sell signal however it might take another day or so for it to work. I did adjust my open order last night for the SPY September puts and it was filled at the open this morning. Todays price action gets me thinking that the market still wants to go higher in the short term as it can stay overbought for extended periods of time. But I'm also looking for selling on the Fed announcement if the trade can stay alive that long. The stop-loss order is already in place. The trade as it stands now is showing a very small profit. Gold was up $35 on the futures to a new all time high above the $3700 level. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up over 4 3/4, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was below average. GDX has been extremely short term overbought for an extended period of time. At this point I would only be guessing as to when that will end. It is not normal price action and I'm pretty sure that it won't end well. As money continues to pour in there, enjoy the ride. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that does not fit with an up market. The short term indicators here are starting to move higher. If that continues stocks would move lower and volatility would increase. I'm not so sure that is what will happen near term even though I own the SPY puts. Money continues to find a home in stocks and liquidity doesn't seem to be an issue. Four days left in the September option cycle and we are in the next trade. Asia was generally lower and Europe generally higher to start the week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A day of hanging around for the most part after yesterdays gains but the Dow did lose 273 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to trend sideways again. The NASDAQ posted a solid gain and the S&P 500 was barely lower. The S&P is still short term overbought but is possibly beginning to stall where it has to for the SPY put trade to work. My open order almost got filled today at the high of the session but didn't. I adjusted the order but the market began to sell off in the final hour. I'll try again on Monday to purchase the September SPY puts but it may be too late. We are close to getting a sell signal on one of our own indiators. I suppose we'll hope for some early strength on Monday and take it from there. Gold was up $8 on the futures. The US dollar was barely higher and interest rates rose. The XAU was off 3/4 and GDX finished flat. Volume was light. The technical picture on GDX hasn't changed. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was barely higher today. It remains short term oversold but not completely. I'm back to not sure what comes next on this indicator. We made it through the inflation data this week and now it's on to the Fed. My guess is that it will be a sell the news event. Our game plan for now is to buy the SPY September puts on Monday if we get a chance to be filled at the premium that we're willing to risk. If not we will maybe try the SPY puts ahead of the Fed announcement on Wednesday. Plenty of charts to check over the weekend. Asia was higher and Europe little changed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.