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Thursday, February 06, 2025

A mixed bag as we wait for tomorrows employment data. The Dow fell 125 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues higher. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 sported gains on the session with the NASDAQ leading the way. The short term indicators for the S&P have now turned back up and it appears that we are on the way to new all time highs. The S&P is right up against a short term resistance down trend line of a couple weeks. My guess is that we'll break through there tomorrow. Looks like it is too late for the SPY February calls. Gold was off a dozen on the futures. The US dollar finised off a bit as did interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. GDX remains short term overbought and extended in that direction. I did place an order for the GDX February puts overnight and it wasn't filled. I am leaving the order out there but may change my mind tonight. GDX has been overbought for so long it is hard to go the other way here. But we are getting a signal so we'll see what happens. Markets do tend to stay overbought longer than you think they can but it has been 4 weeks already for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. It is short term oversold but not at extremes. I'd expect the VIX to move lower tomorrow if the S&P climbs above the short term resistance. It will be up to the reaction to the employment numbers most likely. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how the weeks trading ends tomorrow.

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