Thursday, February 20, 2025
An early sell off this morning but it was followed by buying for the rest of the session. The Dow fell 451 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is beginning to trend sideways again. There seems to be a worldwide exit from equities for the past couple of days but not so much in the US. The Dow led the way lower today and that's not the worst case scenario. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. I'm still in the process of considering what the next SPY option trade will be. Expiration Friday on tap and moving to the March option cycle early will have high premiums. Waiting on a decent technical signal to get the next idea. This is one of those times where you just got to have some patience but that isn't always easy. Gold was up $16 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were slightly down. The XAU gained 2 3/4 and GDX up up about 3/4. Volume was light. GDX remains short term overbought. NEM reports earnings after the closing bell. I might consider the GDX puts again in the March option cycle. GDX remains pretty far above its 50 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but off of the highest levels on the session. Remaining short term oversold but the daily candlestick chart still looks like it wants to go lower. For now it looks like the VIX has support at 14.75 that it can't get through for lower readings and higher stock prices. We'll keep an eye on what occurs going forward. Expiration Friday will be a toss-up as usual. Asia was down and Europe mostly lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
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