Thursday, February 13, 2025
The big move foretold by the McClellan oscillator showed up today as the Dow gained 342 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is once again trying to move higher. The NASDAQ led the way today and that's a plus for the bulls. The inflation data came in about where expected today. The S&P 500 rose 1% and got through the near term resistance short term down trend line. It closed just shy of a new all time high. The short term indicators on the S&P have turned back up. Once we get past the old high there won't be any more overhead resistance. So it appears that we'll be heading higher from here. Volume has also picked up since the beginning of the year which shows there has been plenty of interest in owning equities. Gold was up $28 to close at a new all time high on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 1 3/4 and GDX gained 3/8. Volume was light. I am still looking at the GDX February puts as the next trade but time is running out on this idea with only 5 days left in this months option cycle. The US dollar chart looks like it is about to break down which would also be a plus for gold. However GDX has been short term overbought for over a month now and this cannot go on forever. It is more than overdue for more than a one or two day pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. The near term support on the daily chart is in the 15 area and we are there now. A break below there would mean higher stock prices and that looks like where we are going. Another idea that I was considering was getting some SPY February puts in front of the long holiday weekend in the US in case we get some surprises over the 3 days that the US market will be closed. It has some techncial merit as we are short term overbought. I'll consider it tomorrow. Asia was mixed and Europe higher with the exception of the FTSE in last nights trade. We'll see how things close out for the week tomorrow.
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