Tuesday, February 04, 2025
Back again to the upside as the Dow rose 134 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ led things higher today and that's a plus. The tariff noise took a back seat today. The S&P 500 was higher and is back above its 50 day moving average. Some of the short term indicators here are beginning to head sideways at the mid-range level. I still don't have a clear signal for a trade here but I'm once again leaning towards the calls side for the SPY options. The market has had two gap down sell offs in the past week and a half yet buyers continue to show up. We'll still have to be patient though and wait for a technical signal. Gold was up $16 to a new all time high on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU added 1 3/4 and GDX was up 1/2. Volume was pretty light. GDX has had a nice rally since the beginning of the year but remains very overbought and is due for a rest in my opinion. It does have the uncertainty of what comes next out of Trump in its favor for now. However the techncial overbought condtion for GDX on a daily basis makes trying the calls here too risky. We'll wait for some kind of pullback before thinking about trying any options here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term indicators here have turned back down implying lower volatility and higher stock prices going forward. But again, in this environment we are a sound bite away from dramatic price movement in either direction. Asia was up and Europe generally higher in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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