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Wednesday, February 19, 2025

Drifting higher as the Dow gained 71 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. Another new all time high for the S&P 500. It remains short term overbought and still up against the upper Bollinger band. That is why I don't expect any sharp move higher for now but we'll see. Also the negative breadth today along with a drop in the TRAN could mean that we'll see some actual selling tomorrow. But it is option expiration week so anything goes. Gold finished flat on the session. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates were little changed. The XAU was fractionally lower and GDX finished unchanged. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX have moved a bit lower but remain overbought. We haven't seen any follow through selling to Fridays losses so that's a plus for the bulls. However not following gold back up in the short term raises some questions. We'll look to the March option cycle here but not sure which way to go. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today. Still short term oversold. The daily candlestick chart here looks like that it wants to go lower which would be bullish for stocks. Only a couple of trading days left in the week and we are remaining on the sidelines. I'm still waiting for some kind of decent technical signal to attempt the next trade. We will not try an force things for now. Europe finished down and Asia was generally lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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