Monday, February 10, 2025
Moving higher to start the week as the Dow rose 167 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ led things higher today and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to turn back up. If successful we should break through the short term down trend line and head on to new all time highs. A lot will probably depend on this weeks inflation data due out on Wednesday and Thursday. We also have the Fed chairman in front of Congress tomorrow and the next day. Plus the ongoing saga of what comes next out of the White House. Sticking with the techncials for the S&P there isn't really any solid signal one way or the other here. I do think that we'll be moving higher though but no SPY trades for now. Gold took off to the upside as the futures gained $47. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU climbed 4 1/3 and GDX was up 1 1/8. Volume was good to the upside. GDX remains short term overbought and extended to the upside. The problem here is that during extended rallies this condition lasts for quite a while as we are seeing now. Trying to pick the top is a tough game to play. That said I would still like to try the GDX February puts at some point but it isn't the best idea going forward. However GDX is so far from its 50 day moving average that the upside from here has got to be limited in the near term. I could be wrong. Might place an order for the GDX puts overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is back below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The short term indicators are still oversold and the Bollinger bands continue to contract. I'm not sure what's next for the VIX. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
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