Friday, January 03, 2025
Buying was the order of the day as the Dow gained 339 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around and I believe that it will be successful. The NASDAQ led the way up and that is a plus. The S&P 500 rose 1 1/4%. The short term indicators here have turned back up for the most part. Declines can now be bought in my opinion. I think that the zero line will hold here on the summation index. I did place an order overnight for the SPY January calls but it wasn't filled. I will try again next week if we see some selling. There is one less day in the January option cycle now as the markets will be closed next Thursday in mourning of former president Jimmy Carter. So the timing of any trade will be even more critial than usual. But it looks like a double bottom on the S&P daily chart for now. Gold was off $17 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was light. No GDX trades in mind for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. The short term indicators on the VIX are turning lower. The VIX is back to its 200 day moving average. I'm guessing that the VIX will continue to decline and htat stocks will move higher. I could be wrong. We didn't get the Santa Claus rally this year and that is a cause for concern in the near term. Beyond that however it doesn't have a good forecasting record. Years ending in the number 5 usually are good for the stock market but that didn't happen in 2015. There are always exceptions to any rule. For now we are sticking with the idea of a SPY January call trade to be made at some point next week. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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