Thursday, January 02, 2025
Certainly an interesting day to begin the new year as the Dow fell 151 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The day began with a rally that then faded. Another rally was attempted and then there was a sharp drop only to try and meander back to positive territory but we didn't make it. The Dow led the way lower which isn't the worst scenario. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 had small losses. The short term indicators for the S&P are oversold but not completely. They may be trying to turn around here. One of our short term indicators is flashing a buy signal. I'm still considering the SPY January calls for a short term trade here but did not have the guts to try it today. The proximity of the summation index to the zero line is a factor. However I might have the courage to try that idea tomorrow. We'll see. Gold was up $30 on the futures most likely as a reaction to the terror attack in the US. The US dollar was higher as well and interest rates finished flat. The gold shares found a bid as the XAU climbed 5 3/4 and GDX was up 1 3/8. Volume was a bit above average. It was the best day for GDX in a while and its short term indicators are now moving up. There is a down trend line in place here that comes in at around the 37 level. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher but off from its best levels on the day. The short term indicators for the VIX are trending sideways. It is above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. I can make a case for the VIX moving lower from here but it is not cast in stone. I'll take another look at things tonight and then decide if I want to try the SPY calls. Many of the foreign markets remained closed overnight but those that were open were weaker in general. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
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