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Friday, January 31, 2025

It was a one day downside reversal as stocks opened higher and closed lower to finish the month of January. The Dow fell 337 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up. Inflation data came in where expected which led to a morning rally. But then sellers took over leading to closing losses for the major indices. The Dow led the way lower which isn't the most bearish scenario. The market is waiting to see what comes out of the Trump tarriffs over the weekend. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought on some of its indicators despite todays drop. I'm still in favor of the SPY February calls but am waiting for a decent signal in order to purchase. Still three weeks to go in the February option cycle. The main problem is that we are at the mercy of the next sound bite from Trump which makes the trading harder than it has to be. Gold dipped $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 2 points and GDX slipped about 1/2. Volume was average. GDX continues to remain short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher which fits with the downside price action today. The daily candlestick chart here has lost its bullish look. Not sure where the VIX is heading next. For now we are in a wait and see mode for this weekends tarriff news. I'll be going over all the charts in the next two days as usual. Europe and Asia were slightly higher to end the week. Monday morning should be interesting as we begin a new trading month. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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