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Thursday, January 30, 2025

Heading higher as the Dow gained 168 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The S&P 500 was the leader today. It remains short term overbought as we await the inflation data out tomorrow. End of the month tomorrow as well. The market has the feel of wanting to go higher as it has shrugged off the losses on Monday. However we are in a headline driven environment at the moment so anything could sway things in either direction. Also waiting on whether or not Trump starts to impose tarriffs on February 1st as promised. I'm still a fan of the SPY February calls at some point but we may have missed it. Gold rallied today as the futures climbed $56 to close at a new all time high. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates had a slight decline. The XAU was up 6 points and GDX added 1 1/2. Volume was good to the upside. I missed this move higher in GDX but it is too late to try the calls now. Short term overbought for an extended period of time so I won't be chasing it. I'll try and wait for GDX to reach short term oversold before attempting the calls here again. Or perhaps wait for GDX to return to its short term up trend line at around the 38 level. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is back below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. The short term indicators here are turning down in oversold territory. I still think that the VIX is heading lower. Both Europe and what was open in Asia finished higher. We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

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