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Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Hanging around with a negative bias today as the Dow lost 136 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The Fed didn't move interst rates as expected and there were no surprises during the speech. The NASDAQ was the leader moving lower but the losses were not sharp. Waiting on more earnings and the inflation data out Friday. The S&P 500 remains in short term overbought territory with some of the indicators beginning to track sideways. I'm still waiting for a decent signal one way or the other but leaning on the call side. Option premiums remain elevated with plenty of time left in the February option cycle. The market also is waiting on the threat of US tarriffs scheduled for February 1st. We'll continue to watch and wait for now. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX rose 1/8. Volume remains light for the gold shares. GDX is still short term overbought as it has been for at least a couple of weeks. This won't last forever. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up slightly today. The daily candlestick chart here still looks like it wants to go lower but I'm not sure what's next for the VIX. Europe and what was open in Asia were up for the most part. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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