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Wednesday, April 16, 2014

The bounce continues as the Dow gained 162 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  Can we say that it's more than a bounce and the next rally has begun?  Maybe.  Todays action should turn the summation index back to the upside.  The volume was light though and we cannot make it a habit to trust light volume rallies.  While the snap back has been impressive for the big caps, the small caps are still way below their recent highs.  So I would not be a buyer here as the upside would be limited even if we do continue higher near term.  That's my best guess at the moment.  GE was up almost 1/3 and the volume was a little better.  Earnings due tomorrow, so that should get things going one way or the other.  Gold was up a couple of bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was little changed on the day.  The XAU fell a buck.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other.  The volume was nothing special.  I left in my open order for the May ABX calls.  If it is not filled tomorrow I will cancel it over the long weekend.  I am not exactly sure this is the right trade to do here but I'm willing to give it a shot.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It will be interesting to see where we go from here.  A case could be made either way I suppose.  However I would not be getting too bullish now.  The sell in May crowd may just be getting started.  Technically the stock indices were oversold and we have come off of that condition.  Not overbought short term just yet.  I will be looking for opportunities to buy OEX puts going forward.  Gold and the gold shares are having a negative week.  It is either the beginning of a new leg down or a chance to get long ahead of the next rise.  There is also the possibility that we will simply move sideways.  The technicals here are mixed at the moment.  I am willing to try the May ABX calls here.  Earnings are due at the end of the month.  If my open order isn't filled tomorrow I will reconsider this idea over the weekend.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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