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Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Overbought and staying there as the Dow gained 65 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher and we will once again take our cues from there.  Although a pull back or consolidation should occur imminently, I would have to say that we are in some kind of next leg up type of move.  I am still not overly bullish here but you cannot argue with price.  New highs look like they are coming for some of the major stock indices.  The TRAN managed that today.  However the lack of the small stock indices not making new highs cannot be overlooked.  If the Dow does indeed make a new all time high soon, I'll be looking for some May or June puts.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was light.  No trades here for now.  Gold was off $7 on the futures and the US dollar was slightly weaker as well.  Still trying to hold the $1280 level in gold.  The XAU was up 1 1/8 though.  Perhaps the gold shares are ready to take the lead here or maybe that is simply wishful thinking on my part.  ABX and GG had slight fractional gains, while NEM was flat.  Volume remained above average here for the gold shares.  The May ABX calls that I purchased yesterday have a slight profit.  It will be a waiting game here for the earnings next week.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm expecting some kind of pause for the stock indexes in the next couple of days.  The short term technicals are overbought as I mentioned yesterday.  The overall market atmosphere has the feeling of wanting to go higher here but I would not chase this rally.  I think this will eventually set up for a trade in the OEX puts.  Gold is at the recent $1280 support level and it will need to hold on here for the bullish cause.  I don't know if it will or not.  However over the weekend all the press that I read was very bearish on the price of gold.  This type of media hype is usually the sign that things will be going the other way.  It's often a contrary indicator.  But we'll have to see how things play out from here.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas market action tonight and see what tomorrow brings.

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