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Tuesday, April 08, 2014

A slight bounce in the Dow today as the most watched index rose 10 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is still heading lower so we'll take our cues from that.  I might try the OEX puts on a weak snap back here but I'm not exactly sure.  I still think that the key level to watch is 1840 on the S&P 500.  Fed minutes should be the highlight for tomorrow.  GE was off another 1/8 and the volume remains light.  No trades here for now.  Gold had a good day as the futures rose $10.  The US dollar got crushed today and I have no reason.  I actually would have thought that gold would move much higher with that size of a loss in the dollar.  Again, not sure what to make of it.  The XAU gained 2 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all gained 1/2 on light volume.  Looks like it is too late for the May ABX calls.  The short term technicals have turned up.  If for some reason we get some decline here, I may give it a try.  But this opportunity seems to have left me behind.  The premiums for the options never got to what I thought was a reasonable price.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Are we putting in a near term bottom for the stock indices or is this simply a pause before we continue the decline?  That is the question that needs to be answered in the days to come.  I am definitely not in the bullish camp here.  Gold and the gold shares have begun to move higher in the past week but the volume has been light.  It is always tough to trust light volume rallies.  The Ukraine being back in the news and a weak dollar are both supportive to gold.  Only seven days left in the April option cycle, so the risk is elevated for any short term trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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