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Friday, April 11, 2014

Weakness persists as the Dow fell 143 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  The tone for the stock indices has changed.  Rallies can be opportunities to purchase puts in my opinion.  The summation index is heading lower.  Weekly technicals for the stock indices have all rolled over now as well.  I'm not sure how far we will go down but the 50 week moving averages would be the first stop I figure.  Next week is expiration week and a short week as well.  We should continue lower as the reasons to buy have dried up for now.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  The daily chart looks weak and the weekly looks like it is ready to break lower from a long consolidation.  Gold continues to outperform or at least not go down.  The precious metal futures were off a buck or so.  The US dollar had a flat, quiet session.  The XAU was off 1 2/3 and the daily technicals are rolling over here.  ABX lost 1/8, while GG and NEM shed about 1/2.  Volume was light.  I'll be tempted to try the May ABX calls if we see weakness in the gold shares next week.  The gold shares are following the weakness in the overall market.  This is either an opportunity or a precursor to lower prices for gold itself.  Mentally I'm doing OK but now starting to feel regret over not getting any OEX puts Thursday morning.  My trading so far this year has been overly cautious and not good enough.  But the game goes on.  We closed near the lows of the week but we are not completely oversold just yet.  The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down and that is bearish.  I'm still looking for some kind of short term support at around the 1800 level in the S&P 500.  If not there, then the 200 day moving average would be next.  Gold held up well this week but did not rally that much compared to the weakness in the US dollar.  If we break 79 on the US dollar that would be very supportive to gold, in theory.  Hasn't happened yet.  I think that the 90 level on the XAU will be the key area to watch.  If we get down there that may be the time to try the gold share calls again.  However if we break through lower with good volume, that idea probably won't work.  Plenty of things to consider over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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