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Thursday, April 03, 2014

A waiting game today as the Dow was basically flat on the day with light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is still moving higher though.  Even so, the small stocks remain weak and that will eventually play out to lower prices.  Tomorrow is all about the jobs report and the market reaction.  Even if we do move higher, I still do not see an extended rally coming up.  I could be wrong and often am.  GE was up almost 20 cents and we've broken out of the wedge to the upside.  The only caveat is the volume, which is pretty weak.  Short term overbought for GE now but that doesn't mean it can't stay that way.  Gold was off six bucks on the futures which wasn't so bad considering that it was a good day for the US dollar.  The XAU was off around 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  I did not try the May ABX calls today but I'd still like to make that trade if the option premiums get to where I'll willing to buy.  I may even be a buyer tomorrow if we get enough weakness.  But I have no idea how gold will react to the employment report.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The major large cap stock indices are overbought.  Like I said before even if we get a rally tomorrow, I believe the upside is limited.  The small stocks are really lagging here.  I would not chase stocks to the upside here.  Gold is trying to hold up in the $1280 range and the gold shares have acted better in the past week.  Well, at least they have stopped going straight down.  It appears to me that volume is coming in to the upside for the gold shares.  I am looking to be a buyer of the May ABX calls.  Gold and the gold shares are trying to consolidate here.  We'll watch the action overnight and then brace ourselves for tomorrows jobs numbers.

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