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Friday, April 25, 2014

A downside close for the week as the day was negative from the start.  The Dow lost 140 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The short term technicals are starting to roll over here.  Todays action should make the summation index neutral.  Next week will be important on the weekly candlestick charts.  If the week ends fairly down there will be a bearish pattern there which would negate the bullish engulfing patterns that are set up on most of the major stock indices.  We get the end of the month and the employment report next week.  Attention must be paid to all the developments.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  GE hasn't been in sync with the overall market as of late.  I'm not sure what that means, I can only guess.  Perhaps the market is in better shape than we think.  Or maybe money is heading into the big stocks in a defensive posture.  We'll stick with the technicals.  GE is short term overbought.  Gold had a good session as the futures rose 10 bucks and over $1300.  The US dollar was little changed once again.  The XAU added 1 2/3 and finished on the highs for the day.  Ukraine worries would be my guess for the positive action.  ABX and GG had fractional gains on light volume.  NEM was up a buck on its earnings report.  NEM has had a really good past couple of weeks.  It has now broken a 1 1/2 year down trend line on the weekly chart with good volume.  Obviously owning the May calls here would have been a great trade.  My May ABX calls are still in the black.  Earnings due Wednesday will probably be the key for this trade.  Also any developments on a merger with NEM will affect the stock as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're entering a seasonally weak period for stocks and that should be a warning for getting on the long side going forward.  That doesn't mean that things can't turn around next week and go to new highs.  But it does mean the odds don't favor that scenario and the upside from here is limited in my view.  We are closer to the top than we are any kind of bottom.  Even if we rally next week I'd still advise caution.  Gold held the $1280 level this week.  However it isn't really in any kind of rally yet and needs to break the near term down trend line that began in March to really be positive going forward.  Volume to the upside would help as well.  Any bad news on the global front would be supportive, meaning more Russian activity in the Ukraine.  The technicals for the gold share indexes are mid-range, which means we could go either way.  The Bollinger bands on the weekly ABX chart are starting to converge.  This implies a big move coming up.  Which way and whether or not it's in the May option cycle remains to be seen.  Plenty of charts to check over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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