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Monday, April 07, 2014

Heading lower as the Dow fell 166 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is trending lower.  The trend is down and everybody knows it.  Perhaps we can get some near term stabilization but it doesn't change the overall bearish picture.  The small stocks are leading the way lower.  We closed off of the lows for the session but are not yet completely short term oversold.  We are getting weekly rollovers on the technicals as well now for the big caps.  The small caps have already accomplished this.  I don't think that it is a time to be bullish.  GE was off 1/8 or so and the volume was light.  No trades here for now.  Gold was down $5 on the futures and the US dollar was lower as well.  Not the usual inverse correlation there.  The XAU was lower by 1/3.  ABX and GG were off 1/8, while NEM rose 1/3.  Volume was light.  I'd still like to try the May ABX call trade at some point.  But I would like to see some more weakness for the gold shares first.  May not happen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 is at its support at around the 1840 level.  This is the area of previous support along with the 50 day moving average.  It really needs to hang in here or we will be going much lower.  I don't think this area will hold though.  Perhaps the OEX April puts are in order on a bounce.  Something to consider.  The volume for gold has been pretty light recently so the interest here is limited.  Perhaps I would be better off in some other type of trade.  The Dow and the OEX broke their up trend lines today from February.  Perhaps getting some puts on a snap back to that line is a better idea.  Running out of time for the April cycle with expiration due next Thursday due to a holiday.  Plenty to think about tonight.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the Dow lower overnight and take it from there.

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