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Friday, March 22, 2013

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 90 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  Today was pretty much the opposite of yesterday.  Perhaps we can have one final move to new highs for the S&P 500 but that would be about it in my opinion.  And that may not even happen.  I think we're building a top here and a longer term one at that.  But who knows?  Maybe we just continue to grind higher into the April option expiration.  Or perhaps we return to the April sideways movement in the stock indices due to the tax season as has happened in years before.  The technicals in the stock indexes remain overbought and that won't last forever.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was light.  No trades here for now.  Gold fell $7 on the futures today as the US dollar got clobbered.  That isn't bullish for the precious metal going forward.  The XAU was off 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  My April ABX calls remain losers.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll hopefully be done with the Cyprus crisis after this weekend.  Next week is a holiday shortened trading week.  So the volume should be light and the volatility should be muted.  That won't help my ABX trade as more time premium will be taken out.  Still 4 weeks to go in the April option cycle though.  Gold itself has had a small rally but it hasn't really taken the gold shares with it.  As I've already said before, I think we are building a top in the stock market here.  The longer it takes for the top to build, the stronger the move will be out of it.  Or if this is simply a consolidation, the higher we'll move if it breaks out to the upside.  But I don't think that's the case.  We'll see what happens with Cyprus over the weekend and watch for the markets reaction on Monday.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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