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Friday, March 15, 2013

The week ended with a whimper as the Dow fell 25 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues higher.  Haven't gotten to an all time high on the S&P 500 yet but it is probably coming.  I still think we are near the end of this great run up in prices that started last November.  Bullishness is rampant.  But you can't argue with price.  The stock indices continue to grind higher.  On to the April option cycle and there is an extra week there plus a holiday.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was good.  A negative divergence in the weekly RSI indicator but it hasn't meant anything yet.  So we'll see.  Gold barely moved today despite a good drop in the US dollar.  The usual inverse correlation here just hasn't worked lately.  I don't know why.  The XAU was up 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM finished the day little changed on expiration heavy volume.  My ABX calls continue to lose value as time goes on.  This trade will be a loser barring some unexpected event.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There are still negative RSI divergences in the stock index daily charts.  Unless we power higher here to negate those divergences, they shouldn't be ignored.  The market is technically overbought and has been for quite a while.  This won't last forever.  We've got the Fed next week but I would not expect any major news out of that.  I could be wrong.  Gold continues to do nothing.  I suppose that is better than falling down.  The gold shares are going nowhere fast.  I'm stuck in yet another losing gold share trade.  Perhaps I'll pass on trading gold again and concentrate on the OEX.  It's something to ponder over the weekend.  I'll be checking the charts again and try to come up with a game plan for next week and the April option cycle.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

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