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Thursday, March 07, 2013

Drifting higher today ahead of tomorrows jobs report as the Dow gained 33 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Things could go either way here but there is also a slight chance that we continue to drift.  Overbought for sure on the stock indices.  The summation index continues to the upside.  My OEX March puts are solidly in the red.  Unless there is good move to the downside tomorrow, I'll have to dump them at a loss.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was extremely light.  No trades there for now.  Gold was flat on the futures but down from yesterdays aftermarket gains.  The US dollar was much lower today and that didn't help gold.  That's a negative for now.  The XAU dropped 1 2/3.  ABX and GG fell about 2/3, while NEM was off 1/8.  Volume remains good to average here.  My April ABX calls remain in the red.  The weekly RSI here is at the point where we should see a bounce at the very least.  Hasn't happened yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I have no idea what the employment report will bring but the market reaction to it is the key.  It will be the excuse to buy or sell for tomorrow.  I've made the case for a decline and purchased some OEX puts.  However the market goes where it wants and can remain overbought for longer than expected.  Gold continues to be dead money and nobody wants it.  That is usually the time to step in.  March is historically a poor month for the price of gold though.  It looks like yesterdays pop in the gold shares was a one day wonder.  All eyes on tomorrow morning.  We'll take it from there.

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