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Monday, March 04, 2013

We started off the week with a gain as the Dow rose 38 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We sold off early and came back once again.  That has been the pattern lately and it continues.  Perhaps we'll hit new all time highs on the Dow tomorrow.  I would still like to try the OEX puts before the employment report due on Friday.  I've left in an open order for the March puts.  If we get to new highs it may get filled.  The summation index continues sideways.  We should be short term overbought on teh stock indices by Wednesday if we progress higher.  GE was up just a bit on light volume.  No trades here for now.  Gold was little changed on the futures, with the US dollar down a touch.  The XAU got pummeled again though, losing 4 1/8.  ABX off 3/4, GG shed 1/2 and NEM fell 2/3.  Volume was heavy here again as the gold shares remain in liquidation mode.  My April ABX calls are solidly in the red.  It looks like I was definitely early on this trade.  I may have to bail out soon because there still is no love for the gold shares.  Deeply oversold and staying there.  I might have to exit on any bounce.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices have the feel of wanting to move higher here.  If the volume remains weak, then the puts will be the proper play.  If we continue to rally into Wednesday, then the March OEX puts should work.  We will have to see how it sets up in the next 2 days.  Gold is dead money and the gold shares are zombie like at this point.  Plenty of time for the April ABX calls to work but it isn't looking good right now.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas action and see what happens tomorrow.

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