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Tuesday, March 12, 2013

A mixed market today as the Dow managed a gain of 2 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ showed losses on the day.  Perhaps this is a near term top but it is expiration week.  The usual positive bias should exist.  The summation index continues higher but is getting to the overhead resistance.  I'm still a believer that once the top is put in place here, that will limit the gains for a while.  Only 3 days to go in the March option cycle and it looks like I won't be trying the OEX puts now again.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Perhaps GE is the canary in the coal mine.  That's a guess as usual.  Gold had a decent day, the futures were higher by $13.  The US dollar finished little changed on the trading day.  The XAU gained 3 1/3.  ABX up 1/3, while GG and NEM gained 3/4.  Volume was good for ABX, light for the others.  ABX needs to get moving to the upside or my April ABX call trade will be another loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices remain very overbought.  It doesn't appear as though there is much market moving economic data out the remainder of the week but you never know.  The trend remains up but my feeling is that will be changing soon.  Expectations are very bullish and there seems to be a quiet complacency tone setting in.  The negative technical divergences remain.  We'll see.  Gold had a nice move today and perhaps there is a small double bottom on the daily chart.  Time will tell.  Gold has been such dead money for so long that perhaps we will finally see some interest.  Or not.  March is generally not a good month for the price of the precious metal.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 
   

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