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Monday, March 18, 2013

We begin the week on a down note as the problems in Europe surface yet again.  The Dow fell 62 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  It could have been a lot worse since we started the day off by over double where we ended the trading session.  But the buyers still believe that the market has nowhere to go but up.  I still think we are near or at the end of the months long rally but it will take time to build a top.  The problems in Europe are not going to simply go away but the stock indices forget about them at times.  We will have to see how the rest of this week plays out in Cyprus.  GE was off over 1/8 on light volume.  The up trend line on the daily charts from the beginning of the year has been broken here.  Not so for the Dow and the S&P 500.  We'll see in time if GE is a precursor for the overall market.  Gold had a flight to safety day with the futures gaining 12 bucks.  The US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU only managed a 1/3 point gain though.  ABX, GG and NEM only had slight fractional gains on light volume.  My ABX calls continue solidly in the red.  This trade has to pick up some steam this week or it's dead.  If the gold shares can't get a decent rally going on todays news, exactly when can they?  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  It will be interesting to see what transpires from here as the stock indices are still overbought.  The tone is that we are simply going to digest what happens in Europe and continue on to new highs.  We've got the Fed announcement on Wednesday and that is probably the next market mover.  Unless whatever comes out of there is not a surprise.  Then it will simply be a non event.  Gold itself is perhaps putting in a short term bottom here but the gold shares remain laggards.  We'll keep an eye out on the foreign markets tonight and go from there.   

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