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Tuesday, March 05, 2013

A new all time high for the Dow as the most watched index posted a gain of 126 points.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive and the volume was average.  The summation index should turn back up with todays price action.  We've broken out from the latest small consolidation in the stock indexes.  This is either the last leg up or perhaps we have formed a small bearish megaphone on the daily charts.  The next few days will tell.  My order for the March OEX puts was filled in the morning.  I might be early here as well.  The puts are at the price I paid for now.  I'm still going to wait for Fridays employment report on this trade unless we get a strong move higher in the next two days.  GE was up 1/3 on average volume.  We never went back to fill the gap here.  It could also be the start of the last leg higher here as well.  The daily charts look like that they are beginning the #5 or E move of a 5 wave up.  I could be wrong.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit weaker today.  The XAU was off 1/4 after being higher earlier.  ABX, GG and NEM all continued lower fractionally.  Volume was average.  My ABX April calls have lost half of their value.  I'll consider dumping them after the employment report.  This trade has all the look and feel of a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There was a chance that the stock indices would break out to the upside again and that is what has happened.  There is still a possibility of a 3rd negative divergence in the daily RSI indicator depending on what happens from here.  Some of the stock indexes had a gap to the upside today, so follow through higher tomorrow is key.  My work calls for some weakness going into next Monday from here though.  I could be mistaken there as well.  I think the stock markets reaction to the jobs report will be the difference one way or the other.  The ABX trade already looks dead.  Oversold, staying there and no bounce.  If you're long there is no worse scenario.  We'll see if the foreign markets ride the coattails of the Dow tomorrow.   

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