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Monday, March 25, 2013

Another day of marking time as the Dow fell 64 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that is a positive going forward.  Sideways now for a couple of weeks on the stock indices.  Even if we get one final push for new highs in the S&P 500, that should be it for this rally.  However I am more of a believer that we will break down from here.  No important trend lines have been violated to the downside in the stock indices yet.  Or I could be wrong in my assessment of the situation and we rally huge from here.  But I doubt it.  GE was down 1/8 on average volume.  Sideways here for 6 weeks and counting.  I have no trades in mind for GE at the moment.  Gold was off a touch today as an agreement was hammered out for Cyprus to avoid total financial collapse.  But they've come pretty close.  The precious metal futures were off a couple of bucks after being down a lot more.  Impressive, given the big day in the US dollar.  The gold shares lagged as usual though.  The XAU fell 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  My April ABX calls are still solid losers.  One of the problems here is that while being stuck in a losing position, it takes away from what could be a time to look for other trades.  Sure you keep an eye out on things but you always come back to the trade you're in.  A little less than 4 weeks to go in the April option cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  This week already has the feel of being a wash for the stock indexes.  It is a holiday shortened affair with the end of the month and quarter.  A lot of players will be out.  Some economic data out in the next few days.  But I don't expect any big swings in the stock indices.  Likewise for gold.  Overbought short term here but we could be in a holding pattern.  We'll see.      

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