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Tuesday, May 08, 2012

We sold off hard early in the day but made a comeback to finish with a loss of 76 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Todays action was what I expected for yesterday.  Not exactly sure where we are heading from here.  Short term oversold on the stock indices right now.  However the summation index is heading lower.  But the McClellan oscillator is showing a potential positive divergence.  We now have lower lows in some indexes but a higher McClellan oscillator reading.  I suppose the key word there is potential.  So the technicals are somewhat mixed but I would expect some type of bounce here.  I thought that yesterday as well.  My take on things lately has been way off.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Nothing new to report here.  No trades in mind at the moment.  Gold took a hit today as the US dollar strength led to a commodity sell off.  The precious metal fell about $35 on the futures.  The XAU dropped 5 points.  ABX lost 1 1/4, GG fell 1 2/3 and NEM shed 1 3/8.  Volume was good.  Gold and the gold shares continue to be liquidated.  I have no idea why they are being sold off.  I can only guess that money needs to raised overseas or the big players are still getting out.  Very oversold and the Gold/XAU ratio remains off the charts.  I dumped the remaining ABX May calls for another over 90% loss.  I now have no open positions.  The ABX trade was sobering.  But it means nothing now.  I try and make the proper adjustments going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes need to hold on here for the bulls to still be in control.  We are right at the necklines of some possible head and shoulders tops reversals.  This is an important point in the stock market and will set the tone for the rest of the month in my opinion.  But I could be wrong and often am.  Gold broke down from the recent support on good volume and that is bearish despite being very oversold.  It looks like support comes in around 1550 but who knows if that will hold.  I'm on the sidelines for now until I can sort things out.  I doubt I'll be attempting any trades in the remaining May option cycle.  We'll see what goes on tomorrow.  A bounce is due.

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