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Tuesday, May 29, 2012

We began the shortened week with a rally as the Dow gained 125 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  With so much bearishness, some type of advance almost had to occur.  Getting short term overbought now for the stock indexes.  However todays action will turn the summation index back to the upside.  I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward but the problems in Europe are not just going to go away.  I'd be nimble here as we are still at the mercy of headline risk.  GDP and employment reports in a couple of days.  GE was up almost 1/4 on light volume.  I'm still looking at the July calls here on a pullback.  May or may not happen.  We are approaching a down trend line that has been in effect since the beginning of March and the 50 day moving average line.  Perhaps we'll stall here.  Gold took a hit today as the US dollar had some strength.  The precious metal lost over $20 on the futures.  The XAU only fell 2 1/8.  ABX off around a buck,  GG fell 1 1/3 and NEM dropped 2/3.  Volume was average.  I placed an order for some June ABX calls again and I'm leaving it in overnight.  I'm not exactly sure that this is the right trade but we did break the down trend line in ABX on good volume last week.  We should drop back towards that line and that is what I think is happening now.  Once that takes place we should resume the move to the upside.  Sounds good in theory but the reality of things doesn't always match up.  Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well.  We've begun the week with a light volume rally and those are the types of rallies that can never be trusted.  It's also possible that a lot of the players haven't returned to the game after the long holiday weekend.  So we'll see.  There is some data out this week that should move the stock indices but Europe and its problems will continue to be in the mix.  I'm maintaining a positive outlook for the stock indexes for now.  It looks like I'll be trying the gold shares again unless we get a complete breakdown in gold itself.  I don't anticipate that happening though.  We'll see what happens overseas tonight and take it from there.

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