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Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Quite a day in the markets as the Dow was down almost 200 points during the day but came back to only post a loss of 6 points.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was good.  Plenty of short covering in front of a meeting tonight in Europe.  The problems in Europe are not going away despite what comes out of this meeting tonight.  However the stock indices got very overbought and in my opinion we are going to head higher.  There are too many bears and the opportunity for an actual crash has passed.  I could be wrong.  I did look at the technicals in the past when we have reached the oversold levels that we are seeing today.  The odds favor some type of rally here, not a collapse.  GE was flat on the day after being down 3/8.  I did put in an order for some July GE calls but it wasn't filled.  I am probably too late here at this point.  I wasn't quick enough with the order because by the time I finally decided to try it we already started moving off of the lows.  Gold fell $28 on the futures and was lower than that early on.  It started making a comeback in the aftermarket despite strength in the US dollar that took it over the 82 level.  However even with the weakness in gold, the gold shares were moving higher.  Last night I placed an overnight order for some June ABX calls but it wasn't filled.  I was once again too slow when I saw buying in the gold shares but weakness in gold.  I am still leaving in an order for the ABX calls but it once again is probably too late.  The XAU rose 6 points today.  ABX up 2, GG rose 2 1/3 and NEM higher by 1 1/3.  Volume was good.  ABX is breaking to the upside from a down trend line that has been in effect since the beginning of March.  If we get a pullback to the trend line, which is the next technical expectation, that will be the opportunity to get some calls.  It may or may not occur.  Getting overbought now on the gold shares but that may not matter.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  Interesting times in the marketplace at the moment.  Volatility has picked up substantially.  There are opportunities now as I think the risk of moving much lower from these levels is nominal for the stock indices.  Unfortunately for me, I'm still kind of reeling from the last huge loss in the ABX call trade.  The mental capital is always the most important.  There's so many bears out there now that the market should move higher.  Gold made a nice comeback today and should now be moving higher as well.  We'll see how the markets react to whatever kind of statement that comes out of Europe tonight.  But don't be surprised if we get some type of rally tomorrow no matter what the news is.  

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