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Tuesday, May 15, 2012

The stock market tried to rally today but failed.  The Dow lost 63 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  Summation index continues lower, implying more decline.  Oversold  technically and staying there which could mean even bigger trouble ahead.  I really think it's a time to be cautious.  The problems in Europe are center stage again and there is no easy fix there.  We should have had some kind of triple digit oversold bounce by now.  I'm on the sidelines.  Even the usual expiration week positive bias isn't working.  GE was off about 1/4 on average volume.  Looks like a breakdown out of the congestion zone here.  No trades in mind for GE at the moment.  Gold simply continues to fall, down $4 on the future and another $15 in the aftermarket.  The dollar remains in rally mode and was higher today.  The XAU dropped 5 2/3.  ABX down 1 1/2, GG fell a buck and NEM lost 1 1/4.  Volume was good.  Breaking to new lows on the gold shares and no end in sight.  There is something going on here but I certainly don't know what it is.  I'm guessing money needs to be raised and gold is something to sell.  There will be a time to buy the gold shares and I believe that time is way overdue.  But I would only be guessing at when that time is.  The technicals and indicators that usually work here are blown out to the downside.  I remain on the sidelines.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are in the process of breaking down in the stock indices.  Anything could happen.  Buying interest has dried up.  Once again it is a time to be careful in my opinion.  Gold is still dead money unless you are on the short side.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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