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Monday, May 21, 2012

Finally a bounce today as the Dow gained 135 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive.  No real news today but the oversold condition was so drastic and had lasted so long that this positive action was long overdue.  The question now is what's next?  There are so many bears out there that I would guess that we're going higher.  I think that the opportunity the market had to crash is gone.  A huge down move is still possible but I think that the odds for that have diminished.  I could be wrong.  We'll have to see if we get any follow through upside tomorrow.  There is a chance that this was simply the opposite of expiration Friday and the prevailing trend, which was lower, ensues.  That does happen at times.  But I think the bulk of this decline is over.  GE was up an 1/8 or so on light volume.  No trades there for now but I am looking at the July calls.  Gold lost a couple bucks despite the US dollar being lower.  The XAU followed the overall market higher by 4 2/3.  ABX up a buck, GG higher by 3/4 and NEM led the way with a gain of 1 3/4.  Volume was light.  It's usually a positive sign when NEM leads the gold shares higher.  I might try the June gold share calls if we go back and test the recent lows.  Hasn't happened yet.  Gold itself has so far been successful at holding the $1500 level.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got a nice bounce today as there was no news out of Europe today to derail the rally.  The bounce is coming from extreme oversold levels.  I'd still be careful here but my gut feeling is that the bulk of the decline, if not all of it, is over.  Perhaps waiting for a positive divergence on the McClellan oscillator, if it happens, is the way to go.  We've just begun the June option cycle so premiums are high.  I've got a couple of ideas now for the next trade so we'll see what happens.

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