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Friday, May 11, 2012

We bounced around today as the Dow lost 34 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The stock indices tried to get something going to the upside after dropping at the open but there was no interest.  Still very oversold here both short and medium term.  I think it means that we are either going to start a decent rally from here or we are about to have a pretty good and fast decline.  I don't think there is any middle ground.  Normally I would say we are going to rally at this point but the fact that we haven't yet is worrisome.  So we will wait to see what happens next week.  GE was flat on very light volume.  We're at the bottom of the trading range here.  No trades for now in GE.  Gold fell again, down $11 on the futures.  The US dollar had a slight gain.  ABX off 3/4, GG fell 1/2 and NEM lost 7/8.  Volume was light.  The weekly charts are oversold on the gold shares and the decline has gone on since February.  I suppose I'll be in a wait and see mode here.  We didn't get any type of rally in the gold shares when we should have and that is the same thing that I'm seeing in the stock indexes right now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not exactly sure what to expect next week but there should be some volatility with expiration week upon us.  There's usually a positive bias.  For me at the moment it's probably better to wait things out on the sidelines until I see a decent technical set up and some confidence returns.  I think the way things are in the stock market at the moment that it could go either way.  Gold still appears to be dead money.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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