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Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Once again we tried to rally but to no avail.  The Dow fell 33 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Summation index continues lower.  The Fed minutes didn't do much and the problems in Europe remain center stage.  My technical indicators are so oversold at this point that I believe one of 2 scenarios is about to happen.  The stock indices are either going to begin multi-week rally or we are going to see a quick multi-hundred point decline.  We do not reach these technical levels very often.  I still believe that it's a time to be cautious.  GE was up 2/3 on very heavy volume.  GE announced that it is in the process of reissuing its dividend.  If GE is a proxy for the overall market, then a rally is imminent.  However one day does not make a trend.  I am once again looking at the July calls here.  Gold remains in liquidation mode as the futures fell $20.  The US dollar was higher again.  The XAU was up 3/4 but finished well off of the highs.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on good volume.  We finished well off the highs here as well.  The gold shares showed a brief pop after the Fed minutes but that was about it.  No trades in mind here yet but I will get long again at some point.  Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough.  The stock market is still being held hostage by the problems in Europe.  Once again, there are no quick or easy solutions there.  We move from headline to headline.  It is a tough trading environment.  There's no shame in conserving capital with this type of situation.  That said, you don't make any money either.  But I still think it is a time to be safe rather than sorry.     

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