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Tuesday, November 05, 2019

A mixed bag today but the Dow continued higher.  The most watched index rose 30 points on pretty heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still moving up but we may see a change here soon.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the S&P 500 in negative territory.  The trend remains up but we could see some near term weakness now.  The S&P has moved pretty far from its 50 day moving average but I don't think that a huge decline is about to happen.  We're still overbought on all the short term indicators.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains good.  Gold fell today as the futures dropped $25 seemingly out of nowhere.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU was off 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was good.  It could have been worse for the gold shares but they continue to hold up for now.  NEM dropped on its earnings report.  I adjusted down my open order for the GDX January calls.  Todays gold price action is leading me to believe that the big move coming will be lower instead of higher.  If that's the case there will be no need to try the GDX January calls right now.  It is some thing to keep a close eye on.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  I'm also physically not 100% with a sore back.  Anything that takes away from the trading concentration is an obstacle that must be overcome.  The VIX was up a bit again today.  As long as it stays below the 16 level the rally will live on in my view.  However some short term weakness would not be out of the question.  Perhaps that will set us up for a try at the SPY November calls going into expiration week.  Just a guess on my part.  The big drop in gold today is a concern for the bulls.  A close below $1475 could take us to $1450 in a hurry.  That would totally negate my outlook for GDX calls here.  Hasn't happened yet but again, it is something to watch very closely.  GOLD is reporting its earnings tomorrow and that could set the tone for the price action in the gold indices tomorrow.  Asia and Europe were higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.     

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